Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD: SOL breaks below $100 and tests $95–$93 support as $65 risk grows

Solana (SOL-USD) Below $100: Leverage Unwinds Into A Fragile Support Zone

Solana (SOL-USD) price snapshot and drawdown

Solana (SOL-USD) has slipped decisively under the $100 psychological level and is trading in the mid-$90s, around $96–$97, after a weekly slide of about 24%. On the day, losses of roughly 6%–7% pushed market capitalization to around $54.4 billion with price oscillating near $96.3. The move is not a routine dip inside a range: $100 previously acted as a pivot and failure there shifts focus toward the $95.33–$93.07 band defined by the early-February 2024 and April 2025 lows. That zone is now the first line of defence. Below it, the technical ladder steps down quickly toward $87–$85, then $78.93 and, in a more aggressive flush, the $50 psychological region. The current slide comes after a period where SOL stalled several times around the low-$120s, failed to push through resistance, and entered 2026 in a cautious consolidation. As macro sentiment flipped to risk-off and high-beta assets were sold, Solana moved from a sideways structure into a clear down-leg, giving back the early-year bounce and reopening levels not seen since the previous corrective phases.

Macro risk-off, liquidity rotation and why Solana (SOL-USD) is hit harder

The backdrop is a broad de-risking move across digital assets. Capital rotated into perceived safety, with aggressive positions in altcoins cut first. Solana (SOL-USD) sits squarely in the high-beta bucket: strong upside participation when liquidity is abundant, but sharper drawdowns when the environment tightens. The crypto Fear and Greed Index around 14 signals extreme risk aversion; that combination of low risk appetite and crowded speculative positioning is toxic for leveraged names. During the recent move, long-side liquidations across the market exceeded $500 million in 24 hours, with total liquidations near $735 million. Within that, SOL alone saw futures liquidations above $36 million on one day, dominated by longs. Forced closing of leveraged exposure accelerates selling beyond what spot holders would do on their own. At the same time, Solana lacks the same depth of long-only institutional capital that cushions pullbacks in Bitcoin or Ethereum. When marginal buyers step back and risk-averse flows search for liquidity, a token that relies heavily on speculative demand and derivatives leverage naturally becomes an underperformer.

On-chain usage of Solana (SOL-USD): record transactions, weak price

Under the surface, network activity looks very different from price. Solana has printed record daily transaction counts, exceeding 150 million transactions in a single day with throughput around 1,743 transactions per second. That level of usage confirms that the chain is not suffering from a structural collapse in activity; throughput capacity and developer interest remain strong. From a purely fundamental lens, a network processing that volume of transactions with low fees and high speed has a credible long-term narrative. The problem is timing. Markets are not paying for throughput right now; they are pricing liquidity, leverage, and short-term positioning. The divergence between expanding raw transaction counts and a falling SOL-USD price tells you that a significant portion of on-chain activity is not translating into durable demand for the token at current levels. High activity in itself does not guarantee immediate price support when participants are de-risking, rolling off leverage, or cycling capital into other narratives. That said, this kind of divergence often becomes important once macro conditions improve: a chain with resilient usage during a downturn tends to lead the rebound when liquidity returns.

Solana (SOL-USD) holders: NUPL stress and shrinking unrealized profit

A critical stress point is the distribution of gains across holders. Net unrealized profit/loss metrics show that only about 14% of circulating SOL-USD supply is in unrealized profit, the lowest share since late 2022. In practice this means the majority of holders acquired coins above current spot levels and are now underwater. That positioning has two effects. First, it caps the quality of bounce attempts, because every move higher unlocks trapped supply from holders eager to exit near breakeven. Second, it compresses risk tolerance; underwater positions are more prone to capitulation when macro headlines deteriorate or support levels fail. The move below $100 therefore hits a market where relatively few participants are sitting on comfortable cushions. Instead of patient profit-takers, you have a wide block of holders looking at losses, with the next key reference zones sitting much lower at $95–$93, then $87–$85 and $78.93. Unless that unrealized profit share starts to rebuild, rallies will likely be sold into rather than extended.

Staking collapse, unstaking surge and rising liquid supply of Solana (SOL-USD)

One of the clearest pressure channels is staking. The Solana staking difference metric, which tracks weekly net changes in staked SOL, has flipped from strong accumulation to aggressive release. At the end of November, staking inflows were over 6.34 million SOL in a single week, signaling conviction and long-term locking of supply. That picture has reversed. By the week ending January 19, the metric showed net unstaking of roughly -449,819 SOL. By early February, that figure deteriorated sharply to about -1,155,788 SOL. In two weeks, net unstaking surged around 150%. Every coin leaving staking becomes free to move on-chain or to exchanges. When that shift happens during a down-move, it raises available selling supply at exactly the wrong time. Even if not all of that unlocked SOL is dumped, the mere option to sell increases the probability of deeper extensions lower. This is not a minor change around the margins; the flow implies over a million SOL transitioning from locked to liquid in a short window, which can easily translate to tens of millions of additional dollars of potential sell pressure near the current $95–$100 band.

Derivatives positioning in Solana (SOL-USD): liquidations, open interest and funding

Derivatives markets confirm that the current phase is being driven by deleveraging. Open interest in SOL-USD futures has slipped to around $6.37 billion with a 1.24% decline over 24 hours, indicating capital leaving the contract set either through position closures or reduction in leverage. Liquidation data over the same period show long positions taking the hit: approximately $22.31 million in long liquidations against about $4.39 million in short liquidations, more than a five-to-one ratio. That skew indicates that the move is not driven primarily by new shorts smashing price down; it is forced closure of bullish bets that were positioned for continuation above $100–$120. Funding tells the same story. An OI-weighted funding rate around -0.0238% shows that traders are paying a premium to sit short, reflecting a clear bearish bias. When funding flips negative alongside falling open interest and concentrated long liquidations, it is a textbook deleveraging phase: leverage that was built during optimism is being flushed out, leaving a thinner, more fragile market structure.

Exchange flows and short-term cohorts in Solana (SOL-USD)

Exchange net position change reveals another shift in the balance between accumulation and distribution. At the start of February, net outflows from exchanges sat near -2.25 million SOL on a rolling 30-day basis, reflecting aggressive spot buying and coins moving off exchanges into cold storage or staking. Within days that outflow eased to around -1.66 million SOL, roughly a 26% slowdown in net accumulation. That deceleration matters because it occurs against the backdrop of rising unstaking. More supply is becoming liquid at the same time that the strongest buyers are stepping back. HODL Waves by holding period reinforce the short-term nature of recent flows. The one-day to one-week cohort expanded from about 3.51% to 5.06% of circulating supply between February 2 and February 3. A similar pattern in late January saw this cohort climb to about 5.26% when SOL-USD traded near $127, then shrink to 4.31% as price dropped to around $117, an 8% slide. These are fast-moving participants who buy dips and exit quickly. Their presence can generate sharp intraday bounces but does not provide the sustained, patient capital needed to build a durable base around $90–$100.

Key technical levels for Solana (SOL-USD): descending channel and downside path

Technically, SOL-USD is trading inside a clearly defined descending channel that has contained price since November. The loss of the $100 mark and the $98 horizontal area shifts focus toward the lower boundary of this channel and the nearby support cluster. IG’s mapping of the structure highlights the $95.33–$93.07 zone as the first major support defined by the early-February 2024 and April 2025 lows. A daily close below that band opens a slide toward the $87–$85 pocket, marked by the January 3–19, 2024 lows, and potentially toward $78.93, the January 2024 trough. That sequence amounts to roughly 10%–20% further downside from current levels, with a full channel break suggesting a path toward the $65 area referenced by derivative and on-chain risk metrics. Short-term momentum indicators are aligned with continued pressure. On the daily chart, SOL-USD is trading below the 50-day EMA near $127, the 100-day EMA around $139, and the 200-day EMA around $153. The moving averages are stacked in a bearish configuration, with shorter EMAs below longer ones and all sloping lower. MACD lines are deep in negative territory and still drifting down. RSI near 28 is in oversold territory but moving sideways, a pattern that often marks heavy but persistent sell pressure rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery.

Bearish and bullish tactical scenarios for Solana (SOL-USD)

From here, the path of least resistance is defined by whether SOL-USD can reclaim lost levels quickly or not. On the bearish side, staying below $100 and failing to retake $98 keeps the short-term structure weak. In that case, a drift toward $95.33–$93.07 is likely, followed by tests of $87–$85 and possibly the $78.93 low if broader crypto sentiment remains in risk-off mode. A deeper extension toward $65 aligns with a full descending-channel breakdown and the on-chain picture of rising liquid supply meeting softer demand. On the constructive side, stabilization above $95 and a clean daily close back over $100 would be the first signs that forced selling is slowing. The next milestone is a push through $106.53, the February local high referenced in the earlier bullish scenario. Clearing that would open the door to $116.94, the December 2025 low, and the cluster of former support up to $133.73. These upside bands are likely to be heavy with supply from trapped positions and will not be broken without a shift in macro tone and a visible return of sustained spot and ETF inflows. Until price is back above at least $115–$117, the intermediate structure remains tilted to the downside.

Institutional flows, ETFs and the role of Solana (SOL-USD) in portfolios

Despite the drawdown, institutional-style vehicles have not shut off completely. US-listed SOL-focused exchange-traded products have continued to record inflows in the low single-digit millions per day, with one sequence showing $5.58 million followed by another $1.24 million on consecutive days. That is modest compared with Bitcoin ETF flows but meaningful relative to Solana’s own history. It signals that some allocators are using the break below $100 to add exposure rather than abandoning the asset. At the same time, overall inflow sizes remain small compared with the notional size of spot and derivatives markets, so these products are currently more of a stabilizing factor than a full-blown upside catalyst. The key question is whether these inflows persist if SOL-USD slides toward $85–$65 or whether they dry up in a deeper correction. If ETF demand holds or even scales up while network usage remains strong, Solana is well positioned to outperform when the broader cycle rotates back into risk. In the near term, however, ETF support is not large enough to offset the combined effects of unstaking, weakening spot accumulation, and derivative deleveraging.

Medium-term narrative for Solana (SOL-USD): strong network, weak tape

Structurally, the long-term story behind SOL-USD is intact. High throughput, low fees, and growing developer activity underpin the thesis that Solana will remain one of the core high-performance chains. The ecosystem continues to experiment in areas like DeFi and high-frequency applications, and transaction counts near all-time highs confirm sustained network use. However, markets are currently dominated by macro factors and micro positioning rather than by fundamental throughput stories. Elevated volatility across cryptocurrencies, a fear index deep in the “extreme fear” zone, and heavy long liquidation all point to capital preservation as the priority for many participants. That means structurally strong chains can still see 20%–30% additional downside if key support zones fail and leveraged longs are forced out. For Solana, defending the $90–$95 weekly demand zone is crucial for preserving a bullish medium-term structure. Losing that area on a weekly close would shift the chart toward a deeper corrective regime where even stronger fundamentals would not prevent price from exploring the $80–$65 band before the next real base is built.

Solana (SOL-USD) verdict: bias bearish, stance Hold with a clear risk zone

Taking the full picture into account—price below $100, a weekly loss near 24%, only about 14% of supply in unrealized profit, a 150% surge in net unstaking to roughly -1.16 million SOL, slowing exchange outflows from -2.25 million to -1.66 million SOL, futures open interest around $6.37 billion with long liquidations above $22 million, funding negative at about -0.0238%, and a descending channel pointing toward $85–$65—the short-term bias on SOL-USD is clearly bearish. At the same time, network usage above 150 million daily transactions, continued institutional trickle-in via ETFs, and a still-intact high-throughput narrative argue against capitulating at any price. From a pure risk-reward angle, levels just under $100 sit in the middle of a war zone: downside toward $85–$65 remains open, while serious structural repair only begins once $115–$120 is reclaimed. Under these conditions, the stance here is Hold with a bearish tactical bias. Fresh aggressive long exposure near $95–$100 does not yet offer sufficient margin of safety given the leverage overhang and the proximity of major downside targets. Existing positions that are long-term and unleveraged can justify riding out volatility as long as the $90–$95 weekly band is watched closely. A decisive weekly close below that zone would shift the profile toward a more defensive posture and move SOL-USD closer to a clear Sell from a short- to medium-term perspective, while a fast reclaim of $100 and then $106.53 would start rebuilding the case for a more constructive view.

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