Revenue Dynamics: Solana’s Escalating Protocol Income Versus Ethereum
From a fundamental revenue perspective, Solana (SOL-USD) is in the strongest position it has ever been. Year-to-date protocol revenue is estimated around $1.4 billion, almost three times a cited $522 million figure for Ethereum over the same period. Historically, Ethereum dominated this metric. In 2021, Ethereum generated about $5.1 billion in revenue versus Solana’s roughly $28.1 million. In 2023, Ethereum’s revenue fell to about $2.4 billion, while Solana edged up to $28.95 million. The inflection came in 2024, when Solana’s revenue jumped to around $1.42 billion while Ethereum delivered roughly $2.5 billion, closing a massive gap in a short time. If this trajectory persists, Solana is on track to rival or surpass Ethereum’s annual revenue into 2025–2026, positioning it as a leading revenue-generating blockchain. That disconnect between rising protocol income and a 50% price drawdown from $252.55 to about $124 creates structural upside optionality for long-term investors who focus on cash-flow-like metrics rather than short-term price action.
Institutional ETF Flows And Structural Bid For Solana (SOL-USD)
Institutional flows support the long-term case for Solana (SOL-USD) despite the price weakness. Recent sessions show about $7.4 million net inflows into Solana ETFs in a single trading day, underscoring ongoing institutional interest. Across broader windows, SOL posted weekly inflows of roughly $48.5 million while crypto ETPs as a whole recorded nearly $1 billion in cumulative outflows, with Ethereum products leading redemptions. Only XRP exceeded Solana with inflows near $62.9 million in the same period. Separate datasets highlight multiple weeks of uninterrupted positive inflows into Solana ETF and ETP products, including streaks exceeding 30 consecutive days of net buying. That pattern is typical of strategic accumulation, not short-term speculation. While promotional narratives push presales like Mutuum Finance (MUTM), with Phase 6 priced at $0.035, more than 18,560 investors, and around $19.5 million raised, serious institutional capital is clearly being deployed into major and already scaled execution platforms such as Solana.
Spot Flows, Exchange Behavior And Liquidity Conditions
Spot markets show reduced selling pressure but not yet an aggressive capitulation low. Exchange data indicates steady net outflows of about $5–$10 million in SOL per day from centralized exchanges over recent sessions, a sign that tokens are moving off exchanges into wallets, which typically reduces immediate sell supply. The fact that Solana (SOL-USD) has held above $123.4 during that outflow phase suggests that buyers have been willing to absorb available sell orders, preventing a clean breakdown through the short-term floor. At the same time, spot volumes are not signaling a massive panic bid or a euphoric rush into the token. The current microstructure is a slow tug-of-war between measured accumulation and methodical de-risking, with liquidity thin enough that any strong directional catalyst from Bitcoin or macro can still generate outsized moves.
Analyst Views, Downside Risk Zones And Opportunistic Buying Areas
Analyst commentary around Solana (SOL-USD) ranges from cautious to opportunistic, but it converges on the idea that the token trades in a vulnerable yet potentially attractive zone. Some market participants consider any sweep into the $90–$100 area as a high-conviction accumulation range, projecting a move toward $160–$180 in Q1 2026 once the current downtrend exhausts. Others are more conservative, highlighting $78.14 per SOL as a deeper point of interest if current supports break decisively. Technical specialists emphasize the combination of the descending channel, the bearish flag breakdown, and the still-bearish Directional Movement Index, where -DMI around 24.24 remains well above +DMI near 13.52, while ADX at about 24.24 confirms that the downtrend is real but not yet in a blow-off end phase. Oversold readings in the MFI near 17.06 and neutral-to-weak RSI levels suggest that forced selling may be closer to completion, but until price reclaims at least $128.5–$132 with volume, the chart does not validate the bullish projections.
Scenario Map For Solana (SOL-USD) Into 2025–2026
The constructive path for Solana (SOL-USD) requires several conditions to align. The $120 support needs to hold on a closing basis, with any dips toward $117.32, $116.50, or even $112 met by decisive buying. Price then needs to break back above $126.8–$128.5 and eventually $132–$135.49, which would neutralize the latest breakdown and begin to challenge the descending channel structure. ETF and ETP inflows must remain positive, and protocol revenue needs to continue tracking in the $1.4 billion-plus annual range, reinforcing the network’s role as a top-earning chain. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) must stabilize above the $88,000–$90,000 region to keep risk appetite intact. Under that scenario, a retest of the $150 area around the 0.236 Fib at $149.22 becomes realistic into 2026. The bearish scenario is anchored around a clean violation of $120, opening a slide toward $116.5, then $112, and finally the $100 psychological level, where a 20% drop from current prices would align with several continuation targets. Additional stress, especially if combined with spiking positive funding and rising open interest while price leaks lower, could drive a deeper washout toward the $90–$80 zone before a durable base forms.
Final Stance On Solana (SOL-USD): High-Risk Buy On Weakness With Bearish Near-Term Tape
Taking all data together, Solana (SOL-USD) sits around $124–$125, roughly 50% below its $252.55 peak, while the network processes nearly 1.79 billion monthly transactions, serves about 60.1 million active addresses, anchors $18.57 billion in TVL, and generates around $1.4 billion in protocol revenue year-to-date, almost three times a cited Ethereum figure over the same window. ETFs and ETPs are absorbing supply with daily inflows of $7.4 million and multi-week positive streaks, even as the wider ETP complex sees nearly $1 billion of outflows led by Ethereum products. The chart, however, remains clearly bearish in the short term, with price below all key moving averages, locked inside a descending channel, and still respecting resistances between $126.8 and $135.49. Under these conditions, the most rational classification is that Solana (SOL-USD) is a high-risk Buy on weakness, not a neutral Hold and not a momentum long. Professional execution means treating $120, $116–$112, and, if offered, $100–$90 as staged entry zones, sizing the position as high-volatility exposure, and reassessing only if revenue momentum stalls, ETF inflows reverse decisively, or Bitcoin (BTC-USD) loses its own structural support.
