Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Climbs to $169 as ETF Inflows and $175–$200 Breakout Zone

Solana (SOL-USD) Holds Above $166 as Institutional Demand, ETF Inflows, and Technical Strength Signal Key $175–$200 Reversal Zone

Solana (SOL-USD) is staging a determined rebound, trading near $166–$169, up nearly 6% over the past 48 hours. After testing the $150–$155 range, the asset has regained traction as institutional inflows, ETF accumulation, and derivatives positioning reinforce bullish sentiment across the broader crypto landscape.
The market’s attention now turns to whether Solana can maintain momentum above $175, a decisive threshold separating short-term recovery from a confirmed mid-term breakout that could target $185 (200-day EMA) and eventually $200, a key psychological resistance.

The Critical Role of the $147.49 Confluence Zone

The $147.49 support remains the defining level in Solana’s 2025 structure — a technical and psychological confluence formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its last major rally. This area represents a deep liquidity pocket where historical buyer accumulation has repeatedly sparked trend reversals.
This level also coincides with Solana’s long-term uptrend channel support, where TD Sequential sell exhaustion and RSI readings near 29.25 (oversold) last triggered a rebound in early November. If Solana sustains closes above $155–$160, this zone will serve as the market’s structural foundation for a renewed bullish phase targeting $185–$200.

Volume and Momentum: Traders Return to the Table

Solana’s latest rally is underpinned by a 60% jump in daily trading volume, reaching $5.36 billion, alongside renewed futures market participation. According to CoinGlass, open interest (OI) surged 3.47% to $7.80–$7.91 billion, reflecting increased leverage and new long positioning.
Short liquidations totaled $9.7 million, far surpassing $2.23 million in long liquidations, confirming a forced unwinding of bearish bets. This liquidation cascade, combined with two consecutive bullish daily candles, reinforces the conviction that short-term capitulation has likely ended.
Momentum indicators confirm this turn — the MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, and the RSI has recovered to 41, moving out of oversold territory. If RSI stabilizes above 50, it would confirm renewed buying power across both retail and institutional accounts.

ETF Flows: Structural Bid for Solana Emerges

A defining catalyst for the recent rebound is the nine-day streak of positive inflows into U.S. spot Solana ETFs, totaling $136.5 million last week. These products, managed by issuers like Bitwise and Grayscale, have brought institutional-grade liquidity to the Solana market for the first time.
The ETF inflows provide a “structural bid” — a steady stream of authorized institutional purchases that cushions downside volatility and builds organic accumulation beneath spot prices. Among new institutional participants, Rothschild Investment LLC disclosed 6,000 shares of the SOLZ ETF (~$132,720), while PNC Financial Services revealed 1,453 shares (~$32,140). Combined, these holdings symbolize Solana’s transition from speculative altcoin to a regulated investment-grade asset.
The persistence of ETF inflows even during market weakness signals confidence in Solana’s network fundamentals and long-term scaling trajectory, aligning it closer to Ethereum’s institutional adoption curve.

Network Strength: Activity and Efficiency Hit Records

Beyond price dynamics, Solana’s network fundamentals remain robust. Active addresses recently climbed to 83 million, with over 843,000 new tokens launched in August alone. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade improved finality by 150 milliseconds, cementing Solana’s lead in high-frequency DeFi performance.
Total Value Locked (TVL) stands at $12.9 billion, supported by the expansion of Solana-based staking and liquidity pools. The $148 million in application revenue (August) — up 92% YoY — underscores Solana’s real economic throughput, separating it from low-utility layer-1 chains. This convergence of scalability, adoption, and fee capture validates institutional positioning and reinforces the bullish bias above $150.

Market Sentiment and Technical Boundaries

SOL’s 200-day EMA around $185 now marks the technical battleground for continuation. A decisive daily close above $175, confirmed by rising volume, could unlock the next leg higher toward $200, with follow-through potential into $215 if momentum persists.
Failure to hold $155–$147 would invalidate this structure, exposing the asset to a potential retracement toward $140–$135, a deep reaccumulation zone. For now, sentiment remains balanced but tilting bullish — fueled by ETF flows, positive derivatives data, and fading bearish momentum.
The MACD’s imminent crossover, together with a steadily rising RSI, suggests an early stage of reaccumulation. If buying continues at this pace, Solana could outperform most Layer-1 peers through Q4 2025.

Institutional and Retail Dynamics: Unified Momentum

Both institutional and retail participation are now synchronized — a critical signal in momentum reversals. Retail futures exposure has grown consistently for five sessions, while institutional accumulation through ETFs continues to rise.
The U.S. government’s 60–40 Senate vote to reopen funding and end the budget impasse further eased risk-off sentiment, reinforcing flows into digital assets like Solana. As macro uncertainty declines, risk appetite across crypto improves, giving SOL’s recovery a more durable macro foundation.

Macro Context: Political Stability and Crypto Rotation

Global risk sentiment has improved as signs of a U.S. fiscal resolution spark broader market confidence. This shift, combined with a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and rising ETF approvals, continues to pull capital back into the crypto sector.
Solana, benefiting from its position as an Ethereum-alternative for high-throughput applications, stands at the intersection of retail enthusiasm and institutional legitimacy. The current market phase reflects sector rotation from overvalued meme assets to productive layer-1 protocols, and Solana remains one of the primary beneficiaries of that rotation.

TradingNews Verdict: BUY (SOL-USD)

After consolidating all data — volume expansion, ETF inflows, technical structure, and network fundamentals — Solana (SOL-USD) stands as a BUY with short-term upside potential toward $185–$200 and medium-term targets near $215 if momentum sustains.
Key metrics driving this verdict include:

• Nine consecutive ETF inflow days ($136.5M total)

• Futures OI up to $7.91B (+3.47%)

• Short liquidations: $9.7M vs. $2.23M longs

• RSI recovery from 29 to 41

• $147.49 confluence support zone intact

• Network TVL at $12.9B (+92% YoY app revenue)

Solana remains one of the strongest risk-adjusted opportunities among top-cap crypto assets. The near-term strategy favors accumulation on dips above $155, with stop zones below $147. As ETF inflows continue and institutional participation builds, the $175–$200 zone could define the next phase of Solana’s structural rally.

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