Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Holds $141 After Losing Seven-Month Uptrend

Solana (SOL-USD) Breaks Its Seven-Month Uptrend As Price Slides Toward Critical $135–$140 Support

Solana trades near $141 after erasing the entire seven-month ascending channel that carried every rally since April. The break below the channel midline and the complete failure of the lower boundary mark a structural shift in market behavior, not just a routine pullback. SOL-USD now sits directly on a support band investors defended in June and August, a cluster between $135 and $140 that historically triggered significant bounces. The loss of trend strength has been visible for weeks as every recovery toward the $159 20-day EMA was sold aggressively, confirming overhead supply and signaling that sellers hold control. The pressure intensified after SOL collapsed from $200 in late October to the current $140–$141 region, showing a near-30% drawdown in less than four weeks.

SOL-USD Faces Bearish EMA Alignment With $159, $178 And $185 Acting As Three Layers Of Resistance

SOL-USD now trades beneath all major trend EMAs. The 20-day sits at $159, the 50-day at $178, and the 100-day at $185 — the strongest downside alignment since March. Every rally into the 20-day EMA over the last two weeks met instant rejection, exposing persistent overhead liquidity from unwound leveraged longs. Bulls cannot regain momentum unless SOL recovers $160 on a daily close, which would open the path toward the $175–$180 region. The Relative Strength Index remains around 33, oversold but without bullish divergence, signaling hesitation and weakened confidence rather than capitulation. The absence of RSI divergence confirms that long-term buyers are still not stepping in aggressively, leaving SOL-USD vulnerable if $135 fails.

SOL-USD Suffers $1.6B In Spot Outflows And $6B In Liquidations As Market Contends With Extreme Fear

Solana’s decline accelerated due to market-wide deleveraging triggered by $1.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows between Wednesday and Friday. This forced buyers to absorb billions in sell pressure, spilling into altcoins. Solana recorded $1.6 billion in outflows over 30 days and an additional $6 billion in leveraged long liquidations, according to Coinglass data. That combination — forced selling + liquidations — drove SOL-USD from $200 to the low $140s. The Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 10, its lowest since February, while CoinMarketCap’s indicator printed 16, both signaling extreme fear. Historically, such panic precedes reversals, but current flows show that heavy distribution still dominates, confirming bearish pressure despite short-term stabilization.

SOL-USD Derivatives Data Shows Retail-Led Bounce While Institutions Hedge Through Options Markets

Open interest fell 1.77% to $7.11 billion as traders reduced exposure during the breakdown. Meanwhile, trading volume surged 58.5%, with retail carrying the recent bounce: Binance long/short ratio sits at 4.34, and OKX at 3.56, both levels often used by institutional traders to fade overheated retail optimism. Options activity tells a different story — volume soared 322%, with open interest rising 41%, showing that professionals are hedging volatility rather than positioning for a major rebound. This divergence — retail longing while institutions hedge — typically signals instability rather than imminent strength. SOL-USD needs stronger accumulation, not leveraged retail bids, to build a durable bottom.

SOL-USD Price Reaction To Institutional Catalysts Shows A Disconnect Despite Major Adoption Wins

Solana attracted several of its strongest ecosystem catalysts this quarter, yet price continued falling — signaling a break between fundamentals and near-term market flow. Cash App confirmed USDC payments powered by Solana beginning in 2026, a massive mainstream integration considering Cash App’s scale. Western Union announced an exclusive partnership to support Solana-based stablecoin flows less than a month earlier. Meanwhile, SoFi became the first regulated U.S. bank to offer direct SOL trading from checking accounts, strengthening mainstream accessibility. Solana also launched one of the best-performing ETFs this year — Bitwise BSOL — which has already accumulated $357 million AUM despite market-wide ETF outflows in BTC and ETH. These catalysts normally ignite rallies, but deleveraging pressure overshadowed fundamentals, forcing SOL-USD down even as adoption soared.

SOL-USD Institutional Sentiment Shifts As Major Funds Reevaluate Altcoin Rankings

At The Bridge conference in New York, Coinbase Asset Management president Anthony Bassili confirmed that institutions increasingly treat Solana as the top contender for the third-largest crypto, overtaking XRP in competitive positioning. Institutional models emphasize network velocity, liquidity depth, throughput, real-world usage and composability; SOL outperforms XRP on all metrics. Solana’s ecosystem growth, stablecoin integration, and speed advantage continue pulling institutional interest, even as price trades below $150. Bassili noted that XRP cannot match SOL’s liquidity velocity or usage metrics, and unless XRP improves drastically, institutions will continue reallocating weighting toward Solana over the next cycle.

SOL-USD Technical Levels: $135 As Make-Or-Break Zone With Deeper Risk Toward $126, $120 And $100

The $135–$140 zone remains the critical line separating controlled correction from a deeper unwinding. A breakdown below $135 exposes the liquidity bands around $126, $120, and the macro support zone near $100. These levels coincide with earlier consolidation structures and represent areas where long-term participants historically reentered. If the market retakes the 20-day EMA at $159, momentum shifts immediately toward $166, then $175, and eventually the former channel base at $200. Technical models show a potential rebound toward $210 if SOL holds the current floor and reclaims short-term trend levels. But losing $135 triggers a completely different scenario — deeper price discovery and a potential retest of macro supports.

SOL-USD Competes With Emerging High-ROI Projects As Investors Seek Higher Upside In Presales

The broader correction pushed retail investors toward alternative high-upside opportunities. DeepSnitch AI raised $531K during the downturn, supported by analysts projecting 100x potential due to multi-layer AI analytics and emerging utility. Bitcoin Hyper raised $27.8 million at a price of $0.013285, aggressively attracting capital due to its Bitcoin L2 structure powered by Solana’s architecture. These presales absorbed liquidity as SOL-USD traded in extreme fear — a common behavior when traders chase asymmetric returns while majors consolidate. While not directly harming Solana’s ecosystem, the rotation highlights temporary risk appetite shifts in a fearful market.

SOL-USD Buy/Sell/Hold Verdict

HOLD (Short-term) / BUY (Long-term)
SOL-USD remains under pressure below $150, with $135–$140 acting as the last major support. Reclaiming $160 turns structure bullish toward $175–$200. Losing $135 exposes $126, $120 and $100.
Long-term fundamentals — ETF inflows, Cash App integration, Western Union partnership, SoFi banking access, and institutional positioning — remain extremely strong.
Short-term: hold until the chart confirms strength.
Long-term: accumulation favored above $135 with targets $175, $200 and $210 once trend reclaims bullish structure.

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