Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Jumps to $231.21 as ETF Speculation Sparks $7.7B Volume Surge

Solana (SOL-USD) Eyes $345 as ETF Approval Bets and Technical Strength Ignite New Bullish Wave

Solana (SOL-USD) is regaining momentum after a volatile correction that saw the token fall from a recent high of $238 to lows near $217, before rebounding above $227. The renewed optimism follows rising expectations of a spot Solana ETF approval in the United States, with the SEC reviewing filings from VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares before mid-October. The growing probability of approval — now seen at nearly 99% on Polymarket and 100% by Bloomberg ETF analysts — has triggered strong institutional buying, lifting Solana’s market capitalization back above $126 billion with daily trading volumes surpassing $7.7 billion, a 29.5% surge in liquidity within 24 hours.

ETF Momentum and Institutional Liquidity Catalyze Solana’s Price Recovery

The bullish sentiment surrounding Solana stems from the view that ETF approval would replicate the institutional wave observed after the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches. Analysts argue that Solana’s liquidity depth and fast settlement capabilities make it a prime candidate for institutional portfolios. The REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK), which debuted in July with $33 million in day-one volume, demonstrated early appetite for Solana-linked investment vehicles. With more ETFs under regulatory review, analysts anticipate potential capital inflows exceeding $5 billion in the first six months post-approval, significantly increasing on-chain activity and network staking demand.

ETF optimism has already influenced derivatives positioning. Open interest across SOL perpetual futures has increased 18% week-over-week, while funding rates remain neutral — a sign of healthy speculative balance. Meanwhile, on-chain accumulation patterns show a notable uptick in whale addresses, with holdings above 10,000 SOL expanding by 3.2% since late September. These data points highlight a gradual shift toward institutional accumulation rather than short-term retail speculation.

Technical Landscape: Bull Flags, Support Zones, and Short Squeeze Potential

From a technical standpoint, Solana (SOL-USD) is showing signs of recovery after reaching its oversold threshold at RSI 31 on the 2-hour chart. Analysts point to two distinct bull flag formations that may confirm a renewed uptrend if price closes above $233. The first target sits at $290, representing a 25% upside, while the broader continuation channel from August signals potential extension toward $345, implying nearly 50% upside from current levels.

The Fibonacci retracement between $237 and $217 reveals key support at $218 and $212. Maintaining this structure prevents deeper retracement toward $200,** while reclaiming $230 would open the path to $246 and $264 resistance zones**. Derivatives data further support the bullish bias — large clusters of short liquidations between $213 and $219 suggest the market could face a short squeeze, forcing late sellers to cover as prices climb toward $240–$260.

Momentum indicators align with the bullish thesis. The MACD histogram has flipped positive, showing early strength after a three-day bearish cycle. The 50-hour moving average remains the first technical resistance at $231, while the 100-hour average near $225 now serves as a critical pivot line. Should Solana hold above $225 for 24 hours, traders expect renewed momentum toward the $250 range.

Fundamental Outlook: Network Strength and Expanding Ecosystem

Beyond technicals, Solana’s network fundamentals underpin its strong recovery potential. The blockchain continues to process over 65 million transactions per day, with average fees below $0.0005, making it one of the most cost-efficient large-scale Layer-1 networks. Daily active addresses remain above 1.1 million, while total value locked (TVL) in Solana-based DeFi protocols has rebounded to $15.7 billion, up 26% since July.

The ecosystem’s rapid development is also driving real yield potential. DeFi protocols such as Jupiter, MarginFi, and Kamino have introduced yield-bearing assets with integrated staking mechanics that attract institutional-grade liquidity. Moreover, Solana’s compressed NFT technology and partnerships with Visa and Shopify continue to enhance its role in real-world applications. According to on-chain analytics firm Artemis, transaction finality averages just 400 milliseconds, which positions Solana as the fastest major blockchain by throughput — a crucial factor for ETF adoption scenarios.

Remittix (RTX) Presale and PayFi Ecosystem Fuel Broader Market Narrative

Parallel to Solana’s rise, the Remittix (RTX) project has emerged as a major DeFi story in 2025, achieving $27.2 million raised and selling over 676 million tokens at $0.1130 each. With confirmed listings on BitMart and LBank, and CertiK verification ranking RTX as the #1 pre-launch token globally, the PayFi-focused token is drawing investor interest for its real-world remittance and FX conversion utility.

While not directly connected, the growth of RTX complements Solana’s scaling thesis, highlighting a market trend toward practical DeFi integration rather than pure speculation. Remittix’s cross-border framework, linking 30+ fiat currencies and 40+ cryptocurrencies, demonstrates increasing demand for networks capable of handling real-world transaction layers — a use case where Solana’s low fees and high throughput are decisive advantages.

Market Pressure Zones and Institutional Reaction to ETF Speculation

Despite recent volatility, Solana’s consolidation phase between $217 and $231 has formed a healthy accumulation base. The market cap-to-volume ratio (MVRV) at 16.3 indicates no overheating, while funding metrics confirm balanced positioning. Analysts emphasize that a clean break above $233 could validate a bullish continuation, but failure to reclaim $230 may prolong consolidation until ETF decisions are finalized.

Institutional capital remains attentive: both Grayscale and Franklin Templeton have disclosed indirect exposure through their blockchain innovation funds. Data from Glassnode shows net inflows of $42 million into Solana investment products over the past two weeks, signaling renewed confidence from professional investors.

Broader Crypto Context: Bitcoin Stability and ETF Correlation Effect

Bitcoin’s resilience above $123,000, after rebounding from $112,600, continues to support the altcoin market structure. Historical data suggests that Solana’s price performance shows a 0.82 correlation coefficient with Bitcoin — meaning a sustained BTC uptrend typically extends liquidity to high-beta Layer-1 assets like SOL. Should Bitcoin break toward $130,000–$135,000, Solana could swiftly retest the $260 zone, amplified by ETF optimism.

Strategic Setup: Short-Term Trade Zones and Risk Parameters

Active traders have identified a favorable long setup between $216 and $220, with a stop-loss at $215 and targets at $225 (TP1) and $231 (TP2). Under 10x leverage, this structure offers potential gains of 50% versus 20% risk, with optimal risk management requiring moving stop-loss to breakeven once $224 is reached. This tactical range aligns with Solana’s RSI reset and derivative liquidation levels.

The short-term bias remains bullish, provided that buyers defend the $218 zone. For swing traders, maintaining exposure toward the $250–$260 band offers potential for extended profit as institutional momentum builds into the ETF decision window.

TradingNews Verdict: SOL-USD – BUY (Target $290–$345, Support $212–$218)

After integrating the technical, fundamental, and ETF-based drivers, Solana (SOL-USD) presents a compelling bullish setup. Price stability above $225, rising on-chain activity, and institutional accumulation ahead of the ETF verdict indicate continuation potential into the $290–$345 range.

TradingNews assigns SOL-USD: BUY, targeting $290 short-term and $345 medium-term, with stop-support between $212–$218. The upcoming SEC ETF ruling window through mid-October represents the defining short-term catalyst. A confirmed ETF approval could unlock a structural rally, cementing Solana’s place as the third major institutional blockchain asset after Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the liquidity depth and fundamentals to sustain a long-term bullish trajectory.

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