Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Stalls at $210 as ETF Speculation and Network Upgrades Collide

Solana (SOL-USD) Struggles at $210 Amid ETF Optimism, Profit-Taking, and Network Upgrades

Strong Rally Faces Resistance Near $215 for SOL-USD

Solana (SOL-USD) has surged nearly 30% over the past month, climbing from sub-$170 levels to its current zone around $210–$212. Daily volumes remain elevated near $6.0 billion, reflecting strong trader participation. Despite this bullish stretch, SOL has repeatedly failed to secure a breakout above the $215–$220 resistance band. That ceiling has capped momentum, preventing continuation toward the next key targets at $236 and $252. Technicals highlight a fragile balance: while higher lows confirm an ascending structure, the Money Flow Index is signaling that new capital inflows are hesitant. A decisive breach above $220 would be needed to confirm a true bullish continuation, while a dip below $200 exposes the token to deeper corrections toward $190 and even $180.

On-Chain Signals Show Investors Banking Profits

Data from Glassnode reveals that Solana’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has surged from 0.26 to 0.30 in recent days, indicating that over 90% of circulating SOL is currently in profitable positions. Historically, such levels invite waves of profit-taking. For instance, when NUPL peaked in late August, SOL slid from $214 to $205 in just 48 hours, a 4.2% retreat. More recently, net position change among long-term holders turned sharply negative, with over 1.5 million SOL flowing back to exchanges. That selling pressure from seasoned investors undercuts the sustainability of the rally. Coupled with weak fresh inflows, it creates a setup where traders sitting on gains may accelerate exits if the $205 floor gives way.

ETF Speculation Provides a Cushion for SOL-USD

One of the biggest drivers keeping sentiment afloat is growing optimism for a spot Solana ETF approval in the U.S. The SEC has requested updated S-1 filings, signaling the process is nearing its conclusion. Market betting platforms now price approval odds at 90%–99%, with an October decision in view. Institutional inflows from such a product could be transformative, channeling new liquidity into Solana and potentially breaking its ceiling near $220. Traders are already positioning ahead of this catalyst, which helps explain why SOL has managed to hold above $200 despite heavy profit-taking.

Network Upgrades Strengthen Long-Term Bullish Case

Beyond speculation, Solana’s fundamentals continue to advance. The recently approved “Alpenglow” upgrade will cut block finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, enhancing throughput for real-world assets and DeFi applications. Technologies like Rotor and Votor are being integrated into consensus mechanisms to improve efficiency and stability, making Solana more competitive against Ethereum’s scaling roadmap. These performance gains are crucial, as they position Solana as a faster and cheaper alternative for developers. The upgrade builds on its current transaction capacity of up to 65,000 TPS, maintaining its reputation as one of the most scalable chains in the market.

Tokenized Assets Bring New Institutional Use Cases

A fresh institutional milestone was set when Galaxy Digital became the first publicly traded company to tokenize SEC-registered equity directly on the Solana blockchain. By working with fintech partner Superstate, Galaxy’s Class A common shares can now be held in tokenized form. This move bridges traditional finance with decentralized infrastructure and demonstrates Solana’s capacity to host regulated assets. The development adds weight to the long-term thesis that SOL could become a backbone for tokenized equities, payments, and stablecoin settlements — applications that can create sticky, recurring demand beyond speculation.

Competitive Pressures and Meme-Coin Noise

While Solana retains its position as a blue-chip blockchain, emerging competitors like Rollblock (RBLK) and speculative meme tokens such as BullZilla (BZIL) are attracting speculative flows. Rollblock, for example, has raised $11.5 million in presale funding and boasts over 55,000 users, fueling claims of 3,000% upside potential. BullZilla is leveraging its “Roar Burn” mechanism to reduce supply and drive hype. While these projects lack Solana’s scale or ecosystem depth, they illustrate how investor capital often gets distracted by high-risk, high-reward plays, diluting immediate attention from established leaders like SOL.

Market Sentiment Split Between Excitement and Caution

Social sentiment around Solana has reached an 11-week high, with a 5.8-to-1 ratio of positive-to-negative comments on major platforms. This enthusiasm, however, historically marks exhaustion points that precede short-term pullbacks. The influx of 2 million SOL to exchanges this week highlights that traders are indeed preparing to monetize their positions. Unless ETF approval lands sooner than expected, sentiment may overextend, making SOL vulnerable to a correction back into the $190s before institutional demand resets the trajectory.

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