Spot Bitcoin ETFs Inflows Post $12.5 B July Inflows Even as August 4 Sees $333 M Withdrawal Drive

July’s Unprecedented Influx Reaffirms US Spot BTC-USD ETF Supremacy

US-listed spot BTC-USD funds amassed a staggering $12.5 billion of net new capital in July, capturing 94.5 percent of global crypto ETF trading volume. Since January 2024’s ETF debut, these products now manage over $186 billion, underscoring institutional conviction in regulated Bitcoin exposure.

BlackRock’s IBIT Commands $5.26 B of Inflows, AUM Surpasses $86 B

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $5.26 billion, lifting its AUM to $86.2 billion—51.2 percent of the top-ten total ($168.4 billion). Fidelity’s FBTC drew $2.7 billion to reach $23.9 billion, and Grayscale’s GBTC gathered $2.8 billion for $21.2 billion AUM. Mid-tier performers—ARK 21Shares, Bitwise, Volatility 2×, ProShares and Grayscale Mini—each ended July between $2.7 billion and $5.7 billion AUM.

Ethereum ETFs Rally but BTC-USD Products Dominate Volumes

Ether-linked ETFs pulled in $5.46 billion (from just $822 million in June). iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) closed July with $11.2 billion AUM after netting $2.5 billion. Grayscale’s ETHE and Fidelity’s FETH attracted $1.7 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively. Yet BTC-USD ETFs averaged $1.12 billion in daily volume, dwarfing ether’s $18.8 million—highlighting Bitcoin’s liquidity edge.

Early August Profit-Taking Triggers $333 M Spot BTC-USD ETF Outflows

On August 4, US spot BTC-USD ETFs reversed course, logging $333.2 million of net redemptions—their third straight outflow day. This reflects tactical lock-in of July’s gains as funds rotated into cash.

IBIT Experiences Largest Single-Day Exodus Since May

IBIT led August 4 outflows with $292.2 million redeemed (0.34 percent of its $84.8 billion AUM), as BTC-USD stalled near $114,500. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $40.1 million, Grayscale’s GBTC $9.9 million, while Bitwise’s BITB bucked the trend, attracting $18.5 million.

Ethereum ETFs Suffer Record $465 M Withdrawal

Ether spot products mirrored Bitcoin’s pullback, shedding $465.1 million on August 4. ETHA bore the brunt with $375 million of outflows—the largest since its July 2024 launch—while FETH and Grayscale’s Mini lost $55 million and $28 million.

Regulatory and Macro Catalysts Driving ETF Flows

July’s momentum was fueled by a 95 percent Fed rate-cut probability for September and pricing in three cuts by year-end, encouraging risk-asset allocations into BTC-USD ETFs. Congress’s CLARITY and GENIUS Acts clarified crypto oversight and stablecoin regulation, while the SEC’s Project Crypto and in-kind ETF creation proposals removed key institutional barriers.

Volatility Compresses as Spot ETFs Mature

Since launch, IBIT’s 90-day rolling volatility has plunged below 40 from over 60—a 33 percent drop—mirroring the stabilization seen in other asset classes post-ETF introduction. Smoother price action attracts pension funds, endowments, and asset allocators seeking liquid diversification.

Technical Levels and On-Chain Signals for BTC-USD

After peaking at $114,800 on July 25, BTC-USD tested $112,000 support on profit-taking before rebounding to $113,500 by August 5. Key zones: $112,000 and $110,000 support; $115,000–$116,000 resistance. A break above $115,000 could target $120,000, while a drop below $110,000 risks $105,000. Whale analytics show a 12 percent rise in large exchange inflows week-over-week, signaling rebalancing rather than panic.

Strategic Stance: Bullish with Disciplined Risk Controls

With record July inflows, reduced volatility, and robust regulation, spot BTC-USD ETFs merit a bullish bias. Staggered buy orders between $112,000–$110,000, with stops below $108,000, optimize upside capture and limit macro-driven drawdowns. Reevaluate if cumulative outflows exceed $1 billion or if the Fed alters rate-cut guidance.

Recommendation: Bullish/Hold on BTC-USD spot products—position for continued upside while rigorously managing tactical risk.

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