Stock Markets Stall: Dow 44,933, S&P 6,452, Nasdaq 21,649 Await Powell and Retail Earnings

U.S. Indices Stall as Traders Brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole Signal

Wall Street opened the week with hesitation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA: 44,933.33, -0.03%) dipped 12.79 points, while the S&P 500 (SPX: 6,452.42, +0.04%) edged higher by 2.62 points. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 21,649.03, +0.12%) gained 26.06 points. These moves come after a strong stretch where the Dow advanced +1.7% last week, the S&P 500 added +0.9%, and the Nasdaq climbed +0.8%. Traders are pausing with Powell’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole looming. Futures markets assign an 85% chance of a 25bps rate cut in September, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.328%. The 2-year yield remains above 4.6%, pushing the curve steeper as investors price in easing. The VIX rose 2.52% to 15.47, while the Dollar Index (DXY) ticked up to 95.33 (+0.15%).

Retail Earnings in Focus: Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, Home Depot

The retail giants will define this week’s narrative. Walmart (WMT: $70.31, +0.25%) and Target (TGT: $165.72, +2.02%) are at the forefront, with Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) also on deck. Walmart reported $161.5 billion in revenue last quarter, up +4.9% year over year, and its shares are up +15% YTD compared with the S&P 500’s +10% gain. Target has bounced +18% off May lows after struggling in 2024. U.S. retail sales in July rose only +0.3% versus expectations of +0.5%, suggesting weaker discretionary demand. Home improvement remains under pressure, with negative same-store sales trends for both Home Depot and Lowe’s. These reports will be crucial in measuring consumer strength under higher borrowing costs.

Federal Reserve: Powell’s Final Jackson Hole Address

Markets are positioning ahead of Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance as Fed chair. Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes will show divisions on the decision to hold rates steady. Investors expect at least one 25bps cut in September and two more by year-end, but core CPI at +3.4% YoY complicates the case. The last Jackson Hole address from Powell marked the beginning of the current easing cycle; this week could set expectations for 2026. Bond spreads reflect conviction: the 2y-10y gap has widened, indicating markets are betting the Fed cuts more aggressively into slowing growth.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) Surges on FDA Approval

Novo Nordisk (NVO: $54.33, +4.83%) rallied after the FDA approved Wegovy for treatment of MASH, a progressive liver condition. This adds to Novo’s GLP-1 drug franchise, expanding its U.S. market reach to as many as 22 million patients. The company also announced oral GLP-1 drugs launching in 2026 will not carry a price premium, keeping monthly costs at $499. After losing $70 billion in market value earlier this month due to a profit warning, the stock regained nearly $15 billion in a single session. Trump’s pressure on drugmakers to cut U.S. pricing remains a factor, but regulatory approvals are reinforcing Novo’s leadership.

Bitcoin Retreats After Historic Rally

Bitcoin (BTC-USD: $115,262, -2.03%) fell after reaching a record $124,496 last week, its fourth all-time high of 2025. Prices sank to as low as $114,706 as $500 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated. Ether (ETH-USD: $4,283, -4%) also pulled back after nearly retesting its $4,800 peak. Crypto equities weakened, with Bitmine Immersion down -6%, SharpLink Gaming down -3%, and Bullish Exchange falling -3%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that the U.S. won’t expand its bitcoin reserve reduced speculative demand expectations, weighing further on sentiment.

Asia-Pacific Equities Hit Records

Asian markets provided momentum. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged to 43,714.31 (+0.77%), its highest close on record. Leaders included Suzuki Motor (+10.2%), Isetan Mitsukoshi (+7.79%), and CyberAgent (+7.67%). The broader Topix index gained +0.43% to 3,120.96. Taiwan’s Taiex rose +0.61% to 24,482.52, also a record. China’s CSI 300 (+0.88% to 4,239.41) reached its strongest level since October 2024. South Korea’s Kospi declined -1.5% to 3,177.28, and the Kosdaq fell -2.11% to 798.05, highlighting regional divergence. India’s Nifty 50 (+1.21%) and BSE Sensex (+1.06%) climbed after news of GST cuts on small petrol and diesel cars from 28% to 18%. Australia’s ASX 200 edged higher to 8,959.39 (+0.23%).

Solar and AI Infrastructure Stocks Advance

Renewable energy stocks rallied after the Trump administration clarified tax credit eligibility. Sunrun (RUN: $15.31, +9.96%) has soared +38% since Friday. First Solar (FSLR) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) advanced over +10%. The new rule removes the burdensome 5% cost standard for large projects and eases access for facilities under 1.5 MW, boosting growth potential for residential and small commercial solar firms. Meanwhile, TeraWulf (WULF) jumped +12% as Google boosted its investment in the bitcoin miner and AI infrastructure company to $3.2 billion, highlighting the fusion of crypto-mining with AI compute demand.

M&A, Insider Transactions, and Buffett’s Bets

Palo Alto Networks (PANW: $176.36, -0.41%) is pressing ahead with its $25 billion acquisition of CyberArk, reinforcing consolidation in cybersecurity. On the institutional side, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth (UNH), lifting shares by +12% and pushing the Dow higher given UNH’s index weighting. Insider flows remain a focal point, particularly in healthcare and technology.

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