Stock Market Today: AI Fear Trade Slams Nasdaq as Dow Holds Up and Deal Stocks MASI, NCLH, ZIM Rip Higher

Stock Market Today – AI Fear Trade Drives Post-Holiday Selloff Across Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow

Index performance after Presidents Day and where the market is actually trading

U.S. equities came back from the Presidents Day closure with selling pressure across all major benchmarks. The Nasdaq Composite is trading around 22,300, down roughly 1.1% on the session. The S&P 500 sits near 6,788–6,790, down about 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 49,260–49,270, lower by approximately 0.5%. This follows the worst week of 2026 so far, with the Dow and S&P 500 each having fallen more than 1% last week and the Nasdaq dropping more than 2%. The Nasdaq has now logged five consecutive losing weeks, its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Dow and S&P 500 have recorded four down weeks out of the last five. With the VIX above 22 and the market no longer flattered by AI euphoria, the regime has shifted from a one-way bull run into a choppy consolidation where risk is priced much more aggressively.

AI disruption jitters hammer software, chips and the Magnificent Seven

The selling is again centered on AI disruption risk and AI over-investment. Software is under particularly heavy pressure. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down about 1% today and sits on a year-to-date loss near 22%, a collapse for a group that previously traded on a pure growth narrative. High-multiple software names such as Salesforce (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK) are sliding around 2–3%, while broader tech exposure via the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), trading near $137.37, is lower by roughly 1.5–1.6%. The market is repricing the idea that horizontal AI platforms can replace or commoditize specialized industry software, which forces a haircut on both revenue durability and valuation multiples.

Chip and infrastructure names are not immune. Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are each down more than 2% in recent trading. Even storage and AI-sensitive names such as Western Digital (WDC) and Sandisk-linked exposure are negative, despite being core beneficiaries of the capex wave. Investors are effectively saying that the AI spend curve is too steep, with near-term margins at risk even if the 5- to 10-year demand story remains intact.

The Magnificent Seven trade as a crowded factor. Tesla (TSLA) is lower by more than 3%, Alphabet (GOOG) is off more than 2%, and Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) are broadly down around 1%. Apple (AAPL) is the anomaly, up about 1%, as the market rotates within mega-cap tech toward perceived quality with a less aggressive AI capex narrative. The message from this basket is simple: leadership is no longer bullet-proof, and any sign of AI saturation or disruption is enough to knock 1–3% off in a single session.

Volatility, dollar and rates – VIX above 22 and the Fed-cut story under scrutiny

Risk premia are moving higher in tandem with the equity drawdown. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is trading around 22.50, up more than 6% on the day and sharply higher than the roughly 17 reading seen at the start of last week. A VIX north of 20 signals that downside insurance is being bid again, consistent with a market dealing with AI-linked single-stock shocks, political noise and a heavy macro calendar.

On the rates side, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.04–4.06%, very close to Friday’s 4.05–4.06% close. The yield level itself is not the problem; the issue is the interaction between rates, earnings and valuation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee made it clear that “several more rate cuts” in 2026 are only on the table if inflation continues to fall toward 2% and if tariff-driven shocks prove transitory. Market pricing still implies roughly 64 basis points of cuts, effectively three moves, but commentary like Goolsbee’s tells you the Fed does not want to pre-commit.

The U.S. dollar is firmer, with key dollar gauges in the 94.5–97.5 zone and up roughly 0.3–0.5% on the day. The ICE US Dollar Index (DX) prints near 97.4–97.5, up around 0.5%, while the WSJ Dollar Index also edges higher. A stronger dollar plus higher volatility and weak equities is classic risk-off behavior — it tightens financial conditions, adds pressure on commodities and EM assets, and limits multiple expansion for U.S. exporters.

Macro calendar after the holiday – PCE, GDP and Fed minutes set up binary risk for indices

The holiday-shortened week is front-loaded with critical macro data that can shift the narrative for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow in either direction. The December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due Friday is the key release. It follows a consumer price index (CPI) print that showed headline inflation down to 2.4% year-on-year. If PCE confirms that disinflation trend, it will reinforce expectations for mid-year rate cuts; a surprise re-acceleration would force repricing toward fewer cuts and support for the U.S. dollar.

At the same time, markets will get an advance read on Q4 GDP, after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 4.4% growth in the third quarter. Another robust number would fit a soft-landing or “no landing” narrative, but it also justifies the Fed staying higher for longer if inflation proves sticky. A softer GDP surprise, combined with higher volatility and AI jitters, would re-open recession risk.

The FOMC minutes from the January meeting, due Wednesday, will show how unified the Committee is around the current three-cut consensus and how they balance strong growth against the risk of inflation stalling above target. Supporting data on housing, trade and durable goods will further inform the outlook for the Russell 2000, cyclicals and housing-exposed names. The structure of the week is binary: a benign PCE plus solid GDP can stabilize the S&P 500; any combination of hot inflation or weak growth keeps pressure on all three major indices.

Corporate profits, labor income and the K-shaped economy behind the S&P 500 earnings resilience

Under the surface of the macro printout lies a structural earnings story that matters directly for S&P 500 valuation. Bank of America analysts highlight that corporate profits are rising while labor income is falling, fueling a K-shaped economy. Productivity gains since the pandemic are increasingly accruing to shareholders rather than workers. That dynamic supports profit margins and earnings per share, and it helps explain why roughly 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies are meeting or beating expectations, even as the tape feels weak and AI fear dominates headlines.

For equities, that is a short- and medium-term positive: high margins, tight cost control and buybacks all feed into EPS strength. But it carries political and regulatory risk. If the wedge between corporate profits and wages widens further, the probability of windfall taxes, tighter antitrust action, labor-friendly regulation and broader intervention rises. That risk does not show up in this week’s earnings numbers, but it is one of the main arguments for keeping an eye on valuation multiples as we move into the second half of 2026.

Sector dispersion – consumer staples punished, activists and special situations rewarded

The day’s trading shows aggressive dispersion between sectors and single stocks, which is exactly the environment where stock-picking outperforms passive factor exposure. In consumer staples, General Mills (GIS) is a clear loser. The shares are down about 6.3% to roughly $45.30 after the company cut its outlook for 2026. Organic net sales guidance was reduced to a -1.5% to -2.0% range, from a previous -1% to +1% corridor. Management now expects adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS to fall between 16% and 20%, versus prior guidance for a 10–15% decline. GIS has returned only about 4% year-to-date but is down more than 18% over the past year, while the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is up roughly 15% year-to-date and about 10% over the last twelve months. That underperformance demonstrates that the market is no longer willing to pay defensive multiples for staples that cannot grow volumes or hold margins in a GLP-1-dominated, health-focused environment.

On the positive side of the ledger, activist campaigns and special situations are being aggressively rewarded. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) jumped more than 7% toward $23.05 after Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake north of 10% and signalled plans to push for strategic and operational changes. NCLH has been one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 over the past five years and remains close to its Covid-era levels despite demand recovering. An activist with over $79 billion AUM pressing for better use of assets such as Great Stirrup Cay and for a cleaner capital structure is a concrete value-creation catalyst.

Similarly, Fiserv (FISV) moved roughly 4% higher after reports that Jana Partners has taken a stake and is pushing for changes to lift the stock. With fintech lagging the broader financial sector, credible activists can unlock cost-cutting, asset disposals or improved capital allocation that justify multiple expansion. The message is straightforward: in this tape, self-help stories with identifiable catalysts are outperforming low-growth “safety” names.

Media, streaming and studio consolidation – PSKY, WBD and NFLX in a live bidding configuration

The legacy media and streaming complex is trading as a high-beta special situation, with Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Netflix (NFLX) at the center. PSKY stock is up about 6.3–6.5% to around $10.98–10.99 after WBD agreed to reopen acquisition talks under a seven-day waiver from Netflix. Paramount has tabled an all-cash hostile offer of $30 per share, and WBD has acknowledged an informal proposal at $31 per share, valuing the company around $108.4 billion, including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee until closing if the deal stretches past year-end.

WBD shares are higher by roughly 2–2.2%, trading close to $28.59, as shareholders price the optionality of competing bids. If Netflix’s roughly $82.7 billion preferred deal remains in place, investors get one valuation; if Paramount pushes higher and resolves regulatory issues, WBD holders can extract further upside. NFLX is down nearly 2% to around $75.55, as the market discounts the risk of concessions, integration complexity and a more competitive landscape for streaming. The broader takeaway is that streaming remains a scale game, and consolidation pressures are nowhere near finished. Sub-scale platforms are likely to end up as acquisition targets, partners or asset sellers over the next cycle.

Healthcare technology M&A – Masimo soars on a $180 per share cash bid from Danaher

Healthcare technology is delivering one of the day’s most violent moves. Masimo Corporation (MASI) has rocketed more than 34% to roughly $174.47–174.48 after reports that Danaher (DHR) is close to acquiring the medical-technology company for $180 per share in cash, a deal size near $9.9–10 billion. That price represents a substantial premium to Masimo’s prior market cap of about $7 billion, and would rank as Danaher’s largest acquisition in over half a decade.

Masimo is a key player in pulse oximetry and non-invasive monitoring, and it has been locked in an extended intellectual property fight with Apple (AAPL) over blood-oxygen functionality in the Apple Watch. The share price had fallen roughly 50% over the past five years due to strategic concerns, especially the $1 billion acquisition of Sound United in 2021. A clean all-cash takeout at $180 effectively crystallizes value for shareholders who tolerated years of strategic drift. By contrast, DHR is down more than 5% as investors price the near-term drag from integration, financing costs and execution risk. The signal for the sector is clear: strategic acquirers are still prepared to pay full multiples for differentiated health-tech assets, even in a volatile market.

Cruise lines, shipping and cyclicals – NCLH activism and ZIM’s 58% takeout premium

The travel and shipping complex shows how quickly sentiment can flip when credible corporate catalysts appear. As noted, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) has rallied more than 7% toward $23.05 after Elliott became a top shareholder. With a market value near $10 billion, NCLH has lagged peers like Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) and is still near pandemic lows. Elliott’s track record with Southwest Airlines (LUV), Phillips 66 (PSX) and Toyota Industries (TYIDY) gives the market confidence that capital allocation and growth strategy can be tightened, which justifies a higher multiple if execution follows.

In shipping, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) is up more than 31% to about $29.10 after Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE, HPGLY) agreed to acquire the company for $35 per share in cash, a 58% premium to the prior close of $22.20. The total consideration of roughly $4.2 billion is funded with internal cash and up to $2.5 billion of external financing. The deal requires Israeli government approval, shareholder support and regulatory clearance, but it underscores that even after a sharp drop in freight rates and volumes, container shipping assets with global footprint still command strategic value. For investors, these moves show that cyclicals with strategic assets and weak equity performance are live takeover candidates, and that M&A can re-rate depressed names very quickly.

Metals, energy and crypto – Gold below $4,900, silver selling off, oil flat, bitcoin softer

Across commodities and crypto, price action is consistent with a de-risking environment rather than a capitulation event. Gold (GC=F) trades around $4,876–4,920 per ounce, down approximately 3.2% on the day, extending the pullback from its late-January spike above $5,595. After the violent two-day drop that took prices close to $4,400, bullion has reclaimed roughly half of the decline but is now consolidating below the psychological $5,000 line as traders re-assess how fast the Fed can actually cut.

Silver is even more volatile. Spot prices are near $74.85, with futures around $74.70, falling roughly 4–5% on the session. Silver miners including Hecla Mining (HL), Endeavour Silver (EXK), First Majestic Silver (AG), Coeur Mining (CDE), Teck Resources (TECK), Silvercorp Metals (SVM) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are generally down between 2% and 4%, reflecting leveraged exposure to both metals and risk sentiment.

In energy, West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) trades near $62.58–62.75 per barrel, off roughly 0.2–0.5%. The market is balancing a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, against concerns about global demand and growing non-OPEC supply. The broader S&P GSCI Spot Index is down around 1%, consistent with cross-commodity softening.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades close to $67,000, down about 2.1–2.2% from weekend peaks above $70,000. High-beta crypto remains tightly correlated with tech and micro-cap risk, rallying on liquidity and Fed-cut hopes and selling off when volatility and dollar strength appear. The current mix — lower equities, higher dollar, higher VIX, softer metals and crypto — argues for tight risk controls rather than assuming simple hedges will work automatically.

Global AI infrastructure arms race – Micron, Oracle, Adani and Chinese big tech keep spending

While public markets punish AI-exposed stocks in the short term, the global capex wave behind AI is accelerating. Micron Technology (MU) is planning up to $200 billion of U.S. manufacturing investment over the long term, targeting the memory bottleneck created by increasingly large language models and the data-center buildouts of firms such as OpenAI, Oracle (ORCL), xAI and Anthropic. Despite this, MU is down more than 3% today, and ORCL is off nearly 4%, reflecting near-term worries that spending is outpacing demand and that margins will be squeezed before volume ramps.

In India, Adani Group, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, has announced plans to invest around $100 billion into AI-linked data centers by 2035, aiming to deploy 5 gigawatts of renewable-powered capacity. That scale effectively turns AI into an infrastructure and energy story as much as a software theme. In China, Alibaba (BABA) has committed over $430 million in promotions tied to its Qwen 3.5 chatbot, generating more than 120 million orders in six days with its Lunar New Year campaign. ByteDance is pushing its Doubao chatbot with 100,000 prize giveaways, including humanoid robots and EV access, while Tencent and Baidu (BIDU) are using lucky-money campaigns to drive adoption of their models.

For investors, the conclusion is that the AI build-out is a global, capital-intensive race that spans semiconductors, power, networking, data centers and consumer ecosystems. The market is now scrutinizing timing, returns on capital and competitive dynamics, which justifies a valuation reset today but supports a long-term bullish case for the right infrastructure names.

Earnings and flows – Walmart, CEG, MDT, PANW and 13F disclosures as catalysts for S&P 500 and Dow

Earnings and regulatory filings provide the next set of catalysts for S&P 500 and Dow positioning. Walmart (WMT) reports Thursday in its first quarter under new CEO John Furner, after having just joined the $1 trillion market-cap club. In its last report, Walmart delivered 4.2% comparable-sales growth and raised its full-year forecast. The upcoming numbers will be dissected for U.S. traffic, e-commerce penetration, mix between food and discretionary, and any commentary on consumer health in a so-called K-shaped economy.

On the energy and utilities side, Constellation Energy (CEG) is key as investors evaluate how AI-driven demand for power is reshaping utilities, nuclear assets and grid planning. Medtronic (MDT) will offer a read on procedure volumes, pricing and how GLP-1 adoption is affecting device demand. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is essential for understanding whether cybersecurity spending is holding up as enterprises reshuffle budgets around AI projects and cost discipline.

In parallel, 13F filings from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and other large funds will reveal fourth-quarter positioning. With roughly one in nine CEOs replaced last year across 1,500 large companies and dozens more leadership changes already this year, investors are closely watching whether the likes of Berkshire are rotating into or out of AI-exposed names, staples, financials or cyclicals. These flows will help confirm whether the current selling is mainly short-term de-risking or part of a deeper repositioning away from the AI complex.

Trading News view – Nasdaq cautious Hold (bearish tilt), S&P 500 neutral Hold, Dow selective Buy

From a Trading News perspective, the combination of index performance, sector dispersion, macro risk and valuation leads to a clear set of stances.

For the Nasdaq Composite and high-beta tech, the stance is Hold with a bearish tilt. Valuations remain rich after a multi-year run, and new information — AI disruption risk, capex concerns, regulatory overhang — is skewed to the downside. The current drawdown does not yet offer a clear margin of safety. The bias is to avoid adding broad Nasdaq exposure at current levels and to wait for either deeper price damage or a reset in earnings expectations before upgrading to Buy.

For the S&P 500, the stance is Neutral Hold. Index-level earnings are supported by a rising profit share, strong balance sheets and a still-resilient U.S. economy, but multiples are vulnerable if the 10-year yield stays around 4% and if PCE or GDP data challenge the soft-landing narrative. The S&P 500 is not an outright Sell while roughly 80% of companies are beating estimates, but upside from here looks limited without a clear dovish pivot from the Fed or a positive earnings surprise cycle.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the stance is selective Buy and relative outperform. The index has less direct AI hype, more exposure to dividends and cash flows, and a larger share of companies that benefit from a still-solid domestic economy and tax-refund-driven consumption. In a regime with VIX above 20, a stronger dollar and heightened AI skepticism, the Dow’s factor mix should produce smaller drawdowns and better risk-adjusted returns than the Nasdaq.

At the single-stock level, Trading News views activist and M&A beneficiaries like NCLH, FISV, MASI and ZIM as tactical Buys, provided position sizing respects the event risk embedded in each case. Structurally challenged staples such as GIS, which are cutting guidance into a slow-growth, GLP-1-disrupted backdrop, screen closer to Sell unless valuations compress further. Overall, this Presidents Day-shortened week is a stock-picker’s market, with the broad indices rated as Hold, the Nasdaq carrying a bearish bias, and the Dow favored as the relative winner in a higher-volatility, AI-fatigued environment.

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