Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Surges 533 Points, Nasdaq Jumps 1.8% as Trump Signals Iran War Exit and Marvell Explodes 8%
S&P 500 Closes Its Worst Month Since 2022 Down 7.8% — Gold Rebounds to $4,646 as U.S. Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon for the First Time Since August 2022 | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- Trump signaled willingness to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending the Dow (DJIA) up 533 points, S&P 500 (SPX) up 1.3%, and Nasdaq (IXIC) up 1.8%.
- Nvidia (NVDA) invested $2 billion in Marvell Technology (MRVL), sending MRVL shares surging over 8% on a partnership targeting AI infrastructure and silicon photonics.
- U.S. gas prices crossed $4.018 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, as February's hiring rate collapsed to 3.1% — the lowest since April 2020.
The final session of the first quarter delivered exactly what traders had been starving for — a directional signal out of Washington. President Donald Trump told aides he was willing to bring U.S. military hostilities against Iran to a close even without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and markets responded with conviction. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped 1.33% to close near 6,428, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) surged 533 points or roughly 1.2% to 45,665, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) charged ahead 1.79%, landing at 21,167 — the strongest performer among the three major benchmarks, driven by a decisive rotation back into technology. The Russell 2000 (^RUT) outpaced them all with a 1.96% gain to 2,461, signaling genuine risk appetite rather than defensive rotation.
Yet none of Tuesday's optimism erased what was already a brutal quarter. The S&P 500 entered the day down 7.8% for March alone — its worst single-month performance since September 2022's 9.3% collapse. The quarter as a whole was shaping up to be the worst since 2022. That context matters enormously: Tuesday's rally was a relief valve on a pressure-cooker, not a resolution to the underlying geopolitical and inflationary forces that defined the first three months of the year.
Trump's Hormuz Pivot and What It Actually Means for Oil
The catalyst driving Tuesday's move came directly from the White House. Trump posted on Truth Social that "Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done," and told the New York Post the war "won't last much longer." The Wall Street Journal reported separately that the president communicated to his inner circle that he would accept a scenario where U.S. troops withdrew even if the Strait of Hormuz — responsible for approximately 20% of global energy flow before the conflict — remained largely shut.
That nuance is critical. The market cheered the possibility of de-escalation, but oil prices told a more complicated story. Brent crude (BZ=F) was volatile throughout the session, initially climbing to $117 per barrel before settling nearer $107, still elevated by any historical standard. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) held above $103 per barrel. Brent is now up close to 50% since the conflict began in late February, on pace for its largest one-month percentage gain since the Gulf War in 1990, which produced a 46% monthly surge according to FactSet data going back to 1989.
Adding further tension, Iran struck a Kuwaiti crude oil tanker anchored in Dubai port waters early Tuesday, causing a fire and a potential oil spill. Kuwait Petroleum Corp confirmed the attack; the Dubai government stated all 24 crew members were safe. Iran has now hit multiple vessels across the Gulf since the conflict began — this was at least the third such incident, following earlier strikes near Iraq. Trump, for his part, continued issuing escalatory statements on Monday, threatening to strike Iranian electricity plants, oil facilities, and "possibly" desalination infrastructure if Tehran refused to reopen the strait. The market is clearly pricing in a ceasefire that hasn't actually materialized yet.
The Energy Sector's Historic Quarter — And Exxon's Record Run
While most of the market suffered, one sector turned the war into a windfall. The energy sector finished March up more than 12.5% — the lone positive sector out of 11 S&P 500 components. Every other sector closed the month in negative territory, with industrials taking the hardest hit at -10%, followed by health care and communication services, each off more than 9%.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) was a standout within that energy surge, on track for its best quarterly performance on record. With benchmark U.S. oil closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since the early months of the Ukraine-Russia war and gasoline topping $4 nationwide, integrated energy majors like Exxon found themselves in a rare position — operating in an environment purpose-built for their revenue model.
$4 a Gallon: A Psychological and Economic Threshold
Tuesday morning brought an unwelcome milestone for American consumers: the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline hit $4.018, according to AAA — the first time since August 2022. Prices have surged $1.04 per gallon, or nearly 35%, since the war with Iran began just over a month ago. Diesel was even more punishing at $5.45 per gallon nationally.
To understand the historical rarity: before Tuesday, there had been only 206 days this century where the national average crossed the $4 threshold — one stretch in 2008 and another in 2022. The Trump administration attempted countermeasures, including an emergency waiver on E15 ethanol restrictions on March 25 and a temporary 60-day suspension of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements. Neither intervention meaningfully reversed the trend.
The Eurozone is feeling it too. March inflation in the common currency bloc came in at 2.5% annually, up sharply from 1.9% in February — above the European Central Bank's 2% target for the first time since November. The EU's energy chief explicitly urged member countries to conserve fuel, describing the global energy disruption as "potentially prolonged."
Marvell and Nvidia: $2 Billion Transforms a Chipmaker's Trajectory
The AI trade reasserted itself forcefully on Tuesday, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) surging more than 8% after Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion strategic investment in the company. The two will collaborate on building AI factories and silicon photonics technology, with Marvell developing custom accelerator chips — known as XPUs — compatible with Nvidia's rack-scale infrastructure platforms.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang framed it directly: "The inference inflection has arrived. Token generation demand is surging, and the world is racing to build AI factories." NVDA itself climbed 1% to 1.4% on the news. The Marvell deal is the latest in a web of Nvidia partnerships designed to lock in the ecosystem around its AI infrastructure — a strategy that continues to pay off in market valuation terms even through a quarter when the broader tech sector suffered its fifth consecutive monthly loss, its longest such streak since September 2002.
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) rose 1.5% on Tuesday. Microsoft (MSFT) added 2%. CoreWeave led the AI-specific rally. Lumentum Holdings (LITE), which manufactures optical and photonic components essential for AI infrastructure, was the single best performer in the S&P 500 on the day, gaining more than 6%.
Despite Tuesday's recovery, the tech sector flashed a structural warning Monday: the sector's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average — a bearish technical signal, often called a "death cross," suggesting the downward trend may have deeper roots than a single quarter of geopolitical disruption. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) both sit within this sector. Any sustained recovery in technology will need to fight against that technical backdrop.
Marvell's Premarket Move in Context: A Buy
MRVL is a clear short-term buy off this catalyst. The $2 billion Nvidia commitment isn't just capital — it's a strategic endorsement that positions Marvell as a direct infrastructure partner in the AI buildout. Silicon photonics, the technology they're developing together, is increasingly critical as data center bandwidth demands scale exponentially. An 8%-plus single-day move on a deal of this nature is justified, and the medium-term trajectory looks constructive so long as Nvidia's capital expenditure cycle remains intact.
McCormick and Unilever: The $65 Billion Food Giant Taking Shape
One of the biggest corporate stories of the day had nothing to do with oil or AI. Unilever (UL) confirmed it entered an agreement to merge its global food business — excluding India operations — with McCormick & Company (MKC) in a transaction that values the combined entity at approximately $65.8 billion. Unilever described a structure involving roughly $15.7 billion in upfront cash and the majority of consideration in McCormick equity; upon completion, Unilever and its shareholders would hold approximately 65% of the combined company.
MKC opened the day up, though the stock moved erratically — premarket gains reversed during the session. UL shares in London slipped. The deal reflects the broader consolidation underway in packaged food, where companies are battling margin pressure from sticky inflation, declining volumes tied to GLP-1 weight-loss drug adoption, and shifting consumer preferences. McCormick acquires a food business performing adequately but facing the same structural headwinds every peer in the sector knows well. This is a hold near-term for McCormick — integration risk is real, the premium appears stretched relative to the operating environment, and the equity consideration structure dilutes existing holders.
Apellis Gets Taken Out — Biogen's $41 Acquisition
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) more than doubled in a single session after Biogen (BIIB) announced it would acquire the company at $41 per share. APLS had closed Monday at $17.09 — meaning Biogen paid a premium of roughly 140% to the prior close. BIIB shares declined on the news, a typical buyer's reaction in M&A where the market prices in execution risk and capital deployment concerns. APLS is an automatic hold — or sell into the spike if acquired at the $41 offer price. BIIB is a hold pending more information on integration rationale and pipeline synergies.
Diageo Upgraded as Structural Headwinds Get Priced In
Diageo (DEO) climbed nearly 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the spirits giant to buy from hold. The bank's argument: "structural and cyclical headwinds" including weakness in alcohol demand are already embedded in the stock price. It's a contrarian call, and given how hard the sector has been hit by GLP-1 concerns and consumer spending compression, the downside case may genuinely be priced. This is a speculative buy with a medium-term horizon — the valuation has reset enough to attract value-oriented positioning, though near-term catalysts are limited.
Buffett on Apple: He Sold Too Soon — And He Knows It
Warren Buffett, speaking live on CNBC's Squawk Box from Omaha on Tuesday morning, made a candid admission: he sold Apple (AAPL) too soon. "It's not impossible that Apple would get to a price we would buy a lot of it," Buffett said. "But not in this market." The qualifier is everything. Berkshire Hathaway has been reducing its Apple position for several quarters. Buffett isn't signaling an imminent re-entry — he's acknowledging the quality of the asset while flagging that the current market environment doesn't offer the margin of safety he requires. AAPL is a hold for long-term positions; the Buffett framing actually reinforces patience over urgency.
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Consumer Sentiment Defies Expectations — But the Cracks Are Visible
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March came in at 91.8, up from 91.2 in February and comfortably ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 87.5. The present situation index rose 4.6 points to 123.3. On the surface, this is a positive data point in a period of genuine economic stress.
But the forward-looking component told a different story: expectations fell to 70.9 from 72, and labor market views deteriorated — 27.9% of respondents anticipated fewer jobs ahead versus 26.2% the month prior. Goldman Sachs noted in a client communication Tuesday that consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan has now fallen below levels seen during the 2001 dot-com collapse and the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. The Conference Board and Michigan surveys are measuring different things, but the divergence warrants attention — the present feels manageable; the future feels uncertain.
JOLTS: Hiring Collapsed to a Pandemic-Era Low
The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey confirmed what the sentiment data hinted at. The hiring rate dropped to 3.1% — the lowest since April 2020, at the height of the pandemic shutdown. Total hires fell to 4.85 million, down nearly 500,000 from the prior month and 387,000 below the year-ago level. Job openings came in at 6.88 million, slightly above the FactSet estimate of 6.84 million but down 358,000 from January's revised 7.2 million.
Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, noted that 3.1% is "comparable to late 2009 and early 2010, when the unemployment rate was around 10%." That is not a throwaway comparison. Hiring this cold, combined with a nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 in February, suggests the labor market is deteriorating beneath a surface that still shows millions of open positions. Low-hire, low-fire is a fragile equilibrium — and oil-driven inflation is not a backdrop that makes the Fed's job easier.
Gold's Brutal Month — And Its Nascent Recovery
Gold (GC=F) was trading near $4,646 per ounce on Tuesday, up nearly 2% on the day and on pace for a third consecutive winning session — the first such streak since January 29. But the monthly picture was catastrophic. Gold fell approximately 12.9% in March, its first negative month in nine and its worst monthly decline since October 2008 when it shed 18.46%. The metal's intraday all-time high was $5,626.8 and the record close was $5,354.8, both set on January 29.
The March selloff came precisely as the Iran war began, triggering a dollar flight and asset liquidation across commodities. Tuesday's recovery came on the back of Trump's de-escalation signals and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments that long-term U.S. inflation expectations remained anchored despite the oil price surge. Powell indicated policy was "in a good place for us to wait and see." The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rallied more than 4% on Tuesday. Gold is a buy on weakness here — the combination of war risk, dollar softness (Dollar Index near 97, off from above 100 earlier), and potential rate hold by the Fed creates a constructive medium-term environment even after a historically bad month.
The VIX Pulls Back — But Remains Elevated
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 10.23% to 27.48 on Tuesday, slipping below the psychologically significant 30 level that had been acting as a ceiling of sorts on risk appetite. The drop reflected the de-escalation narrative from Washington. However, 27.48 is still elevated by normal standards — the VIX historically averages in the mid-teens during calm periods. A VIX above 25 signals continued uncertainty, and with oil tankers still being struck in the Gulf and Trump simultaneously threatening civilian infrastructure in Iran, the conflict remains far from resolved.
Aluminum Takes Another Hit From Gulf Attacks
Two of the Gulf's largest aluminum producers — Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain — came under Iranian drone and missile fire over the weekend, pushing London Metal Exchange aluminum futures up as much as 5.5% on Monday to briefly touch $3,492 per tonne, a level last seen in April 2022. The metal settled Monday up 3.5% at $3,381 per tonne. Aluminum has risen approximately 10% since the conflict began, creating downstream cost pressure for manufacturers dependent on the metal across aerospace, automotive, and packaging sectors.
Hegseth's Defense Broker Story: A Political Risk the Market Is Watching
The Financial Times reported Tuesday that a broker representing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February — ahead of the Iran war — to inquire about a multimillion-dollar investment in the iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF (IDEF). The ETF holds major positions in RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. The Pentagon dismissed the report. What's notable from a market perspective: IDEF has lost 12.4% over the past month, even as the war that ostensibly would benefit defense contractors has dragged on. That underperformance tells a story about investor skepticism around the sustainability of defense spending levels and the operational complications of a prolonged conflict.
Home Prices: January Data Already Feels Like Ancient History
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed prices rose 1.18% year-over-year in January and 0.16% month-over-month. The data, which reflects transactions closing between late 2025 and early 2026, captured a period when mortgage rates were hovering near multi-year lows in the low 6% range. Since then, rates climbed to around 6.55% by Monday according to Mortgage News Daily. The housing market is already in a low-supply, low-demand equilibrium — rate increases layered on top of a war-driven economic shock will add further friction to what was already a challenged affordability picture for first-time buyers.
The Broader Market Structure: Ten Sectors Still Red for March
Even with Tuesday's rally — 441 of the S&P 500's constituents posted gains, with 10 of 11 sectors trading higher on the day — only energy finished March in positive territory. Industrials led losses for the month at -10%, followed by health care and communication services both off more than 9%. Utilities was the only sector declining on Tuesday itself. The breadth of Tuesday's rally was genuine, but the month-end framing is important: this was index rebalancing and short covering layered on top of geopolitical hope, not a fundamental repricing of the macro risk environment.
Buffett Charity Lunch Returns — With an NBA Twist
Warren Buffett, 95, is bringing back his famous charity auction lunch, this time pairing with Stephen Curry and Ayesha Curry. The fundraising event ties the Berkshire Hathaway chairman's investment brand to Curry's cultural reach. Buffett framed it as supporting organizations "making a meaningful difference." For markets, the real signal from Buffett's CNBC appearance Tuesday was his posture: willing to buy great businesses at the right price, cautious about the current environment. That's not bullish, it's disciplined — and coming from the world's most respected capital allocator, it carries weight.
The Quarter in Review: A Market Reset, Not a Collapse — Yet
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, characterized the quarter's decline as consistent with normal market behavior: 10% corrections occur roughly every two years on average and should not be mistaken for structural breaks. That framing has merit — the S&P 500 at 6,428 is off its highs but not in bear market territory. The Nasdaq's 2% single-day surge reflects genuine positioning behind AI infrastructure spending, which has not been impaired by the conflict. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield sat at 4.334%, down slightly on the day, suggesting bond markets are not screaming inflation emergency despite $4 gasoline and 2.5% Eurozone CPI. Bitcoin held near $66,844, down slightly on the day but largely range-bound.
The real question heading into the second quarter is whether Trump's de-escalation posture translates into actual diplomatic progress — or whether Tuesday's rally becomes another in a series of relief trades that unwind the moment the next tanker is struck or the next threat is posted on Truth Social. The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed. Gas prices crossed $4 for the first time in nearly four years. Hiring is at pandemic-era lows. And a technical death cross has formed in the S&P 500's technology sector. Tuesday was a good day. The quarter was not.
