Stock Market Today - Nasdaq Jumps 2.07% as Alphabet and Tesla Spark AI Revival — Fed Cut Odds Top 75%

Stock Market Today - Nasdaq Leads Powerful Rally As AI And Tech Megacaps Dominate Wall Street’s Comeback

U.S. equities surged sharply to start Thanksgiving week, reversing weeks of AI-driven losses as investors piled back into mega-cap technology leaders. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.07% to 22,733.46, marking its strongest single-day rally since early October. The S&P 500 gained 1.26% to 6,686.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.59% to 46,519.53, with risk appetite spreading into small caps — the Russell 2000 added 1.17% to 2,397.38. The session’s strength reflected a decisive rebound in AI-linked growth stocks as optimism mounted over an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut and a soft-landing narrative regained traction.

Treasury yields cooled, signaling renewed confidence in the Fed pivot. The U.S. 10-year yield settled at 4.057%, its lowest in three weeks. The VIX volatility index tumbled 9.3% to 21.25, showing traders rotating away from defensive hedges. Gold prices steadied at $4,090 per ounce (+0.26%), crude oil recovered to $58.18 (+0.21%), and the U.S. Dollar Index edged slightly higher to 97.59 (+0.06%), keeping global liquidity stable. These cross-asset signals confirmed one dominant market theme — the return of risk-on sentiment led by AI capital expenditure, equity inflows, and lower rate expectations.

Federal Reserve Tone Shifts As Policy Bets Drive Market Repricing

The week opened with renewed conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point rate cut at its December meeting, a probability that climbed from 40% to over 75% after multiple dovish signals. Governor Christopher Waller explicitly supported cutting rates, citing slowing inflation and a cooling labor market as justification for policy easing. New York Fed President John Williams echoed that “a near-term adjustment” would help align the policy stance closer to neutral, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins remained cautious but did not dismiss the need for action.

The market’s immediate reaction was broad and aggressive — yields dropped, futures spiked, and high-beta equities surged. CME FedWatch data confirmed traders fully pricing in a December cut, reversing the hawkish stance seen after Chair Jerome Powell’s earlier comments. This shift comes as inflation pressures ease and economic growth moderates, leading investors to expect that the next phase will favor longer-duration assets like technology and communication services.

Alphabet’s Gemini 3 Ignites AI Renaissance Across Big Tech

The AI complex regained its footing after weeks of skepticism. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) soared 5.25% to $315.38, extending its dominant rebound from last week’s Gemini 3 announcement. The new AI model’s improved multimodal reasoning — capable of handling text, video, and image interpretation simultaneously — drew praise across the industry. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff called Gemini 3’s leap in processing “the most profound shift since ChatGPT’s original debut.” Alphabet has now risen 68% in 2025, positioning itself to overtake Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in total market capitalization as the market rewards proven AI monetization pathways.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) rebounded 0.34% to $179.48, reversing part of last week’s 6% decline despite blockbuster Q3 results that included record data center revenue and sequential margin expansion. Analysts at JPMorgan reiterated Nvidia’s leadership in GPU-based infrastructure, emphasizing the ongoing $90 billion AI bond issuance wave that includes Nvidia’s peers Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL). Together, these “hyperscalers” have flooded the market with debt to fund new AI data centers, underscoring the intensity of corporate AI investment even as investors debate long-term returns.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) rose 6%, fueled by CEO Elon Musk’s claim that Tesla’s in-house A16 chip will surpass all other AI semiconductors in production scale. That comment reignited optimism around Tesla’s AI and autonomous-driving segment, offsetting earlier weakness from its EV margin compression. Combined, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla contributed over 40% of the Nasdaq’s total point gains during the session.

China’s Tech Recovery Lifts Sentiment As Alibaba And Baidu Rebound

In Asia, Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) jumped 4%, extending a Hong Kong rally driven by the company’s Qwen AI assistant, which recorded 10 million downloads in its first week after relaunch. The surge lifted the Hang Seng Index nearly 2%, countering global fears of a Chinese tech slowdown. Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) advanced 7.7% to $119.52 after a major JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight with a $188 target, highlighting underappreciated monetization potential in Baidu’s AI cloud and autonomous-driving ecosystems. JPMorgan’s note projected Baidu could re-rate sharply as its AI and cloud margins expand, aligning it closer to U.S. peers by mid-2026.

While Chinese technology stocks advanced, European defense names lagged after the U.S. administration hailed “progress” in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Rheinmetall lost 4%, Thales dropped 2%, and Saab slid 3%, underscoring how the prospect of de-escalation dampened European defense demand expectations.

Pharma Volatility: Novo Nordisk Collapses, Lilly Gains

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) was the day’s biggest large-cap loser, plunging 9% to $44.63 after confirming that semaglutide, the active compound in its flagship drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, failed to slow Alzheimer’s disease in late-stage trials. The result erased roughly $468 billion in market capitalization since the firm’s 2024 peak of 1,028 DKK per share, leaving Novo’s valuation near $190 billion. Its U.S. rival Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), now the first $1 trillion pharmaceutical company, edged up 0.3%, reflecting confidence in its competing obesity and Alzheimer’s portfolios. The divergence underscored the market’s selective approach to health care innovation — rewarding clinical clarity while punishing speculative expansion beyond core competencies.

Healthcare Sector Surges On ACA Subsidy Extension

Managed care and health insurance stocks rallied after reports suggested the White House plans to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies by two years beyond the scheduled expiration. Oscar Health (NYSE: OSCR) surged 25%, Centene (NYSE: CNC) jumped 7.5%, and Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH) gained 5%, with all three setting multi-month highs. The extension proposal, combined with new eligibility rules, eased concerns over coverage lapses and revenue compression for exchange-based insurers.

Opendoor (NASDAQ: OPEN) Reignites As Warrants Begin Trading

Among mid-cap standouts, Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) surged to $6.90 in pre-market trade after a 9.6% gain on Friday, powered by the launch of its new tradable warrant dividend. The warrants — OPENW ($9 strike), OPENL ($13 strike), and OPENZ ($17 strike) — began trading on Nasdaq, expiring November 20, 2026. Opendoor distributed one set of warrants for every 30 common shares held, effectively rewarding long-term holders while adding leverage to future appreciation. CEO Kaz Nejatian described the move as a “structural alignment mechanism” with shareholders.

Opendoor’s market capitalization sits near $6.4 billion, with a beta above 3.5, marking it as one of the year’s most volatile U.S. growth names. The stock has gained 320% year-to-date, versus a 10% S&P 500 rise, despite revenue sliding 34% year-over-year to $915 million in Q3. The company reported a $90 million net loss, wider than last year’s $78 million, and projected another $40–50 million EBITDA loss in Q4 due to limited inventory turnover. However, management reaffirmed its goal of achieving breakeven adjusted net income by end-2026 through AI-driven valuation models and cost reductions.

The firm’s new “Opendoor 2.0” plan centers on AI pricing systems like RiskAI, designed to evaluate unstructured data — from neighborhood lighting to landscaping features — for more precise home valuations. If successful, this would reposition Opendoor as a software-first platform rather than a capital-intensive iBuyer, a critical step toward restoring long-term investor confidence.

Earnings, Analyst Upgrades, And Momentum Movers

Equity movers were dominated by cyclical rebounds and targeted upgrades. US Foods (NYSE: USFD) advanced 5.5% after ending merger talks with Performance Food Group (NYSE: PFGC), which fell 2%. Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) rallied 7.09% to $331.84 after Wedbush raised its price target to $400 and upgraded to Outperform, citing strengthening unit economics and easing credit fears. JX Luxventure (NASDAQ: JXG) soared 36.2%, Epsium Enterprise (NASDAQ: EPSM) gained 26.18%, and Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR) rose 4.24% on speculative retail flows.

Crypto, Commodities, And Global Cross-Asset Correlations

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slipped 1.11% to $86,487, marking its weakest week since February, even as the Nasdaq Crypto Index advanced 2.17% to 4,266.73, showing decoupling between digital assets and crypto equities. Cleanspark (NASDAQ: CLSK) gained 4.11%, Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) rose 1.44%, and BitMine Immersion (NASDAQ: BMNR) advanced 3.12%, supported by improved miner profitability as network difficulty stabilized.

Commodities showed mixed signals: WTI crude at $57.61 (-0.78%), Brent at $62.12 (-0.70%), gold at $4,068.50 (-0.27%), and silver near $49.82 (-0.19%). The pullback reflected easing inflation expectations and reduced geopolitical premium as U.S.–Ukraine peace discussions advanced.

Market Outlook And Strategic Verdict

The return of aggressive buying in AI and tech megacaps signals that investors are positioning for a dovish December Fed meeting. The S&P 500’s 12% year-to-date gain and Nasdaq’s 15% advance illustrate resilience despite valuation risks. Liquidity remains deep, volatility is retreating, and rotation from defensives to growth is accelerating. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) now anchor short-term leadership, while Nvidia (NVDA) continues to dictate sentiment in the semiconductor cycle.

The medium-term risk lies in valuation compression should the Fed delay action or if earnings momentum fades. For now, the technical setup favors continuation into year-end, supported by stabilizing yields and persistent institutional inflows.

Verdict: Based on breadth recovery, declining yields, and leadership concentration, the near-term stance is Buy, with upside potential extending through December’s policy window. Traders should monitor yield curve flattening, AI capital flows, and consumer data as leading signals for the next rotation phase.

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