U.S. equity benchmarks are entering September with fragile momentum. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed at 6,460.26 on August 29, down 0.64% in its weakest monthly gain since July 2024. Despite reaching a record high of 6,501.58 just a day earlier, the index now faces its historically toughest month, with a 0.7% average September loss over the past 30 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are similarly vulnerable after four consecutive monthly advances. Futures trading was muted on Labor Day, with S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) contracts barely moving, reflecting investor hesitation ahead of key economic releases.
Volatility, Fed Cuts, and Macro Tension
The Cboe Volatility Index (^VIX) has stayed below 20 for months, signaling complacency, yet strategists warn the quiet could precede turbulence. The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, coupled with the August jobs report and inflation data, lands in the coming two weeks. Consensus expects around 73,000–75,000 new jobs, with unemployment projected at 4.3%. Revisions earlier this summer erased 250,000 prior payroll gains, triggering political fallout and rattling confidence in labor data. With swaps markets pricing a 90% probability of a September rate cut, the Fed is walking a fine line between acknowledging weakness and sustaining market optimism.
Tech Earnings in Focus: Salesforce and Broadcom
The earnings calendar brings heavyweight catalysts. Salesforce (CRM) and Broadcom (AVGO) report this week, with AVGO already under pressure, sliding 3.65% to close at $1,474. Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) dropped 3.34% to $121.44, continuing a volatile stretch for AI-linked equities. Tech remains the growth engine for Nasdaq, but leadership is wobbling as investors reassess stretched valuations. With AI data centers flagged as a potential next sector for government stakeholdings after Trump’s intervention in Intel (INTC), policy risks are now entwined with earnings expectations.
Bitcoin Stability Alters Wall Street Perception
While equities brace for volatility, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has grown quieter. Trading around $108,758, the cryptocurrency has posted a 17% year-to-date rise while setting records above $109,000 earlier this summer. Rolling volatility has collapsed to historic lows, aided by corporate treasuries now controlling more than 6% of supply. Companies such as Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), GameStop (GME), and Metaplanet (MTPLF) have joined MicroStrategy (MSTR) in large-scale accumulation. JPMorgan notes this “private-sector QE” effect as stabilizing the asset. The expansion of ETFs and futures has broadened institutional adoption, further narrowing swings.
MicroStrategy’s Transformation into Strategy (MSTR)
Rebranded as Strategy (MSTR), the company is redefining itself as both a bitcoin custodian and a corporate software firm. In Q2 2025, it posted $14 billion operating income and $10 billion net income, translating into $32.6 EPS. Revenue rose to $114.5 million, up 2.7% YoY, with subscriptions up nearly 70%. The firm holds 597,325 BTC, generating a 19.7% BTC Yield YTD. With market capitalization, profitability, and trading volume all surpassing S&P 500 thresholds, Strategy is eligible for index inclusion in September’s rebalance. If confirmed, it would be the first bitcoin-heavy balance sheet company inside the S&P 500, potentially influencing index flows.
BYD Slows While Tesla Keeps Pressure
In Asia, BYD (1211.HK, BYDDF, BYDDY) logged its first back-to-back production drop since 2020. August production slipped 3.78% YoY to 353,090 vehicles, following July’s 0.9% decline. Sales in China fell 14.3% to 292,813, marking a fourth straight monthly slide, even as European sales gained. Shares tumbled 5.24% to HKD 108.40. Analysts at China Merchants Bank International cut forecasts 5% to 4.9 million units for 2025, suggesting the company may miss its 5.5 million target. Competitor Tesla (TSLA) remains resilient, pressuring margins across the EV sector. BYD’s pivot from hybrids toward pure EVs since April underscores intensifying competition.
Trump’s Tariffs Face Legal Hurdles
Markets also reacted to a federal appeals court ruling that most of Trump’s global tariffs, imposed under the 1977 IEEPA law, are illegal. Emergency tariffs, which account for 78% of Trump’s new trade revenue, are at risk if the Supreme Court confirms the ruling. Reciprocal tariffs ranging 10–50%, including a 50% levy on imports from India and Brazil, may be rolled back, complicating U.S. trade leverage. Equity markets are treating this as a new uncertainty layer for multinationals and exporters, with supply chains once again in flux.
Israel’s TA-35 Slides as Commodities Lift
Globally, Israel’s TA 35 index fell 0.53%, with NICE Ltd (TASE:NICE) rising 3.11% while Menora Mivtachim (TASE:MMHD) sank 4.45%. Commodities firmed, with WTI crude at $64.68 (+1.05%), Brent at $68.16 (+1.01%), and gold surging to $3,547 (+0.88%). Currency markets saw USD/ILS at 3.36 (+0.63%) and EUR/ILS at 3.93 (+0.86%), reflecting local capital outflows.
Most Active and High-Growth U.S. Stocks
On the U.S. tape, several names stood out: Ambarella (AMBA) soared 16.78% to $82.48 on 7.16M shares, IREN Limited (IREN) jumped 14.93% to $26.48 with a staggering 76.5M volume, and Alibaba (BABA) surged 12.9% to $135.00, extending a 64% YTD gain. Affirm (AFRM) climbed 10.58% to $88.45, while Autodesk (ADSK) gained 9.09% to $314.70. Mining equities tracked gold’s rally, with SSR Mining (SSRM) up 5.52% and Hecla (HL) advancing 5.45%. Chinese tech and U.S. fintech names continue to dominate momentum flows.
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