Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Rise as Nvidia Earnings Awaited

Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Hold Steady Ahead of Nvidia Test

Broad Indices Maintain Cautious Gains

U.S. markets stayed afloat on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) adding 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbing 103 points (+0.2%), and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) inching 0.1% higher. The day’s muted trade reflected a market unwilling to commit before NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) releases its highly anticipated earnings report after the closing bell. With NVDA representing roughly 8% of the S&P 500’s weight, its results have the potential to swing the broader market by as much as 0.7%, equivalent to $260 billion in market value.

Bond markets added a layer of unease as the 10-year yield (^TNX) pushed to 4.28%, while the 30-year (^TYX) held above 4.95%, the steepest curve since April. Investors are digesting President Donald Trump’s aggressive move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a legally untested maneuver that stoked fears of political pressure on monetary policy. Despite the extraordinary circumstances, equities barely flinched — a sign Wall Street believes rate cuts are still on the horizon.

Nvidia Earnings Carry Market-Wide Stakes

Expectations for NVIDIA (NVDA) are sky-high. Consensus forecasts call for $46.2 billion in revenue and $1.01 in adjusted EPS, up from $30 billion and $0.68 a year earlier. Analysts project data-center sales of $41.3 billion, more than half the company’s top line. Options traders are bracing for a 6% swing in the stock, a reflection of its pivotal role not only in AI but also in the trajectory of the Nasdaq Composite.

Still, risks remain. Trump’s tariffs on China’s semiconductor imports — now carrying a potential 100% levy — could ripple across the sector. Nvidia already expects an $8 billion revenue hit from Beijing restrictions on U.S. chip sales. With the stock trading at 33.7x forward earnings, well above the Nasdaq’s average P/E of 28, investors are asking whether even record-breaking numbers can justify the valuation. A beat may lift the “Magnificent Seven” cohort, while a miss could jolt the S&P 500 into correction territory.

Technology and AI Software Stocks Lead the Session

Away from Nvidia, smaller-cap technology names stole the spotlight. MongoDB (MDB) surged 32% to $284.04 after reporting $591 million in revenue, up 24% year-over-year, crushing expectations of $556 million. The company posted a narrower-than-expected loss of $0.58 per share versus forecasts for –$0.85. CEO Dev Ittycheria highlighted demand from firms building AI applications as a key growth driver.

Okta (OKTA) gained more than 5% premarket and extended gains in-session after lifting full-year revenue guidance. Quarterly sales hit $728 million, ahead of the $711 million consensus, with EPS at $0.37 against $0.21 expected. Subscription backlog expanded 18% year-over-year to $4.15 billion, showing momentum in identity security demand.

Other AI and cloud-linked names followed suit: Snowflake (SNOW) advanced 4% premarket, and PVH Corp. (PVH) rose after delivering $2.52 EPS on $2.17 billion in revenue, topping analyst targets despite tariff-related cost pressures.

Retailers and Consumer Stocks Surge

The consumer sector delivered some of the most dramatic moves of the day. Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) exploded 20% to $15.70 after quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share trounced the $0.29 estimate, on revenue of $3.35 billion versus expectations of $3.32 billion. Interim CEO Michael Bender credited tighter inventory management and reduced costs for the turnaround. The company now guides full-year EPS between $0.50 and $0.80, up from its prior $0.10–$0.60 outlook.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) climbed another 8% to $62.35, building on a 6% rally Tuesday, after bowing to consumer pressure — and President Trump — to revert to its old logo. Shares are now up 27% in six months, outpacing the Russell 2000 (^RUT).

Canada Goose (GOOS) soared 15% to $14.08 after reports that controlling shareholder Bain Capital received buyout bids valuing the luxury parka maker at $1.35 billion. The potential privatization has sparked renewed attention on consumer discretionary names with turnaround narratives.

Energy and Commodity Moves

Energy markets remained volatile as geopolitics intersected with trade. Exxon Mobil (XOM) traded flat despite reports of talks with Rosneft about reentering Russia’s Sakhalin project if peace negotiations progress. Meanwhile, Brent crude (BZ=F) steadied at $67.66 per barrel, up 0.65%, after Tuesday’s sharp decline. Goldman Sachs sees a slide to the low $50s by late 2026, but Indian government officials warned prices could surge to $200 if Russian exports halt.

These crosscurrents pushed the S&P 500 Energy Index higher, with Chevron (CVX) also gaining amid speculation of deepening collaboration with Exxon on global projects.

Financial Sector Spotlight

Canadian banks provided upside surprises. Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported $3.14 EPS on $8.98 billion revenue, ahead of estimates of $2.85 EPS and $8.88 billion. While Canadian retail banking earnings fell to $867 million from $914 million a year earlier, U.S. operations surged to $709 million, up sharply from $470 million. Wealth management contributed $436 million, versus $362 million last year. Scotiabank (BNS) also beat expectations, lifting shares higher in premarket trade.

In the U.S., UnitedHealth Group (UNH) edged up 0.7% to $302.61 despite reports the DOJ’s criminal probe into its Optum Rx unit is broader than expected. Shares remain 40% down YTD, underlining ongoing pressure on healthcare majors.

Other Corporate Movers

IonQ (IONQ) added 3.8% to $42.31 after B Riley Securities initiated with a Buy rating, citing long-term value from quantum computing adoption. Despite being up 474% in 12 months, the stock is flat year-to-date amid profitability concerns.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) jumped 5% to $12.78 after announcing a limited-edition collaboration with NFL star Travis Kelce, days after his engagement to Taylor Swift. Rival Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) traded flat despite earnings of $2.32 EPS on $1.2 billion revenue, above estimates, with Hollister comps up 19% but Abercrombie brand sales down 11%.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

With over 92% of S&P 500 constituents having reported earnings, aggregate Q2 EPS growth stands at +11%, well above the +5% expectation entering the season. The VIX (^VIX) remains subdued at 14.89, reinforcing the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Bank of America noted this year marks the second-best post-crisis performance for dip buyers, suggesting even a September pullback could be swiftly bought.

The coming hours rest on NVIDIA’s (NVDA) shoulders. With traders bracing for a record-shattering quarter, the verdict will dictate whether the Nasdaq Composite breaks higher or drags the Dow Jones and S&P 500 into turbulence. At current levels, momentum leans bullish, but valuation stress leaves no margin for disappointment.

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