Stock Market Today - Wall Street Balances Shutdown Fears, Record Gold, and Nvidia’s $185 Rally as Q3 Closes

Markets Flat as Shutdown Odds Near 93% and Indices Close Strong Quarter

The final trading session of September left Wall Street battling political gridlock, mixed corporate news, and defensive commodity flows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) held just above the flatline at 46,327.45 (+0.02%), the S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked higher to 6,672.01 (+0.16%), while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.02% to 22,587.05. Small-caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 (^RUT) falling 0.57% to 2,421.26, underscoring waning appetite for higher-risk equities as the probability of a government shutdown surged to more than 93% on Polymarket.

Government Shutdown Threat Clouds Labor and Inflation Data

With the funding deadline looming, Speaker Mike Johnson admitted he was “skeptical” of a deal, while Vice President JD Vance bluntly said “we’re headed to a shutdown.” Prediction platforms showed 88–93% odds of a halt to government operations. The economic risk lies not only in furloughs but in the blackout of key reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will halt operations, delaying the September jobs report and potentially the October CPI. That leaves the Federal Reserve without fresh employment and inflation data heading into its October 28–29 policy meeting.

Consumer confidence data already reflect strain. The Conference Board index dropped to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August and its lowest since April. The “present situation” gauge tumbled 7 points to 125.4, showing fading optimism about the labor market. Inflation expectations edged down to 5.8%, compared with 6.1% in August, but the broad deterioration weighed on sentiment.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Defy Seasonality With Best September in a Decade

Despite the political standoff, September delivered upside. The S&P 500 rose 3.1% this month, its best September since 2013, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 5.3%. Quarter-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 7.4%, the Nasdaq up 10.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 5%, marking its fifth straight quarterly gain. Historically, September averages declines — the S&P has fallen 4.2% on average over the past five years — making this month’s resilience notable. However, breadth remains uneven, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average slipping 0.8% YTD, highlighting cracks in demand-sensitive sectors.

Technology in Focus: Nvidia Hits Record While Alphabet Slides

Tech trading was uneven. NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 1.99% to $185.50, reaching another intraday record after Citi projected $2.8 trillion in AI capital spending between 2025 and 2029. The move was amplified by a $14.2 billion CoreWeave–Meta (META) infrastructure deal and Nvidia’s own commitments, including a $100B investment in OpenAI and a $5B stake in Intel (INTC). CoreWeave (CRWV) stock surged more than 11.5% to $136.65, benefiting from its Meta partnership and a prior $6.5B agreement with OpenAI.

Alphabet (GOOG) slipped 0.90% to $242.16, despite capping a 35% quarterly rally, its strongest three-month gain since 2005. Google’s $32B acquisition of Wiz earlier in the year underscored its aggressive cloud strategy, yet the recent settlement with President Trump over YouTube added political overhang. UiPath (PATH) jumped 8% on news of partnerships with OpenAI, Snowflake, and Google, pushing shares to their highest close since February.

Healthcare Stocks Lead as Pfizer Secures White House Deal

Healthcare provided market leadership. Pfizer (PFE) soared 6.56% to $25.42 after agreeing with the Trump administration to lower drug prices by 50% on average through a direct-to-consumer platform called TrumpRx. In exchange, Pfizer secured a three-year exemption from tariffs and committed $70 billion to U.S.-based R&D and manufacturing expansion. The deal sparked optimism across pharmaceuticals, with Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), and Amgen (AMGN) each rising more than 1%. The S&P 500 Health Care sector gained 1.6%, making it the best-performing group of the day.

Energy and Industrials Hit by Oil Decline and Layoffs

Energy stocks struggled as crude fell. WTI crude oil (CL=F) dropped to $62.59/barrel (-1.36%), while Brent (BZ=F) also traded lower on expectations of increased OPEC+ supply. ExxonMobil (XOM) announced 2,000 job cuts as part of restructuring, echoing broader industry downsizing after Chevron and ConocoPhillips already announced workforce reductions earlier this year. U.S. crude has slumped nearly 13% year-to-date, fueling concern that supply is outpacing demand. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index slid 1.43% to 151.81, reflecting financial sector weakness amid yield curve volatility.

Gold and Silver Outperform Equities as Safe Havens Dominate

Precious metals surged as investors sought safety. Gold (GC=F) hit $3,879.10/oz (+0.62%), its best run for the first nine months of a year since 1979, up 45% year-to-date. Silver (SI=F) outperformed, trading just below $46/oz, up 27% this quarter and 58% YTD. The metal is now within reach of its historic $48.70 peak in 1980, when the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner the market. These gains highlight defensive positioning, with gold trouncing the Dow Jones Transportation Average in relative performance.

M&A and Corporate Shake-Ups Reshape the Landscape

Mega deals fueled optimism for investment banking. Year-to-date, 49 global M&A transactions above $10B have been announced, the most ever in the first nine months of a year. Notables include Electronic Arts (EA) in a $55B leveraged buyout, Union Pacific (UNP) merging with Norfolk Southern (NSC) for $85B, and Google’s $32B acquisition of Wiz. Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) extended a rally to $141.91 (+3.80%), now up 278% YTD, on prediction market volumes exceeding 4 billion contracts. CEO Vlad Tenev teased the addition of short selling, further diversifying the platform beyond its retail-trading roots.

In contrast, Spotify (SPOT) dropped 5.18% to $690.71 after CEO Daniel Ek announced he will step down, handing control to two executives. Etsy (ETSY) slid 11% to $74.34, retracing gains from its AI partnership with OpenAI. Semiconductor volatility remained extreme: Wolfspeed (WOLF) soared 37.78% to $30.45 after emerging from Chapter 11 and slashing debt by 70%.

Macro Market Forces: Tariffs, Yields, and Housing Data

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) stabilized at 4.154%, after three straight quarterly declines. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 95.13 (-0.18%), easing alongside yields. New tariffs remain a key theme: Trump’s 10% duty on lumber and furniture imports, effective October 14, added to prior threats on drugs, films, and kitchen cabinets. Lumber futures rallied on the announcement, though housing data weakened further. Construction job openings fell to 188,000, the lowest since 2017, underscoring a contraction in the building sector.

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