Stock Market Today - Wall Street Extends Record Run, Dow 46,261, S&P 500 6,650, Nasdaq 22,570

Wall Street Extends Rally Amid Fed Cut and Trump–Xi Call

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) traded at 46,261.37, up 118 points or 0.26% by midday Friday, holding above the flatline after drifting earlier. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.28% to 6,650.49, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 0.45% to 22,570.80. All three benchmarks remain lodged at record highs after Thursday’s Fed-driven surge. Investors continue to weigh the central bank’s first rate cut since December — a 25 bps trim — against global political shifts, particularly a multi-hour phone call between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

Fed Policy Sparks Momentum Across Major Indices

The Fed’s quarter-point cut, labeled by Jerome Powell as a “risk management” move, set a supportive tone for equities even as he avoided signaling an aggressive easing cycle. Markets reacted with volatility but quickly regained upward momentum. The S&P 500 has now climbed 35% since March and trades at 22x forward earnings, stretching valuations and raising expectations of possible consolidation. Weekly gains stand at +0.8% for the S&P 500, +0.7% for the Dow, and +1.7% for the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 (^RUT), which surged to a record earlier in the week, pulled back 0.7% Friday but is still up more than 2% for the week, eyeing its seventh straight weekly advance.

Tech Giants Fuel Nasdaq Outperformance

Mega-cap tech remains the engine. Apple (AAPL) jumped 2% as the iPhone 17 hit global shelves, boosting the Nasdaq’s outperformance. Tesla (TSLA) added 1.5%, extending momentum following upgrades and bullish price target hikes. Semiconductor stocks were volatile after Nvidia (NVDA) finalized a $5 billion stake in Intel (INTC). Intel soared 22% on Thursday, only to slip 1.65% Friday to $30.07 after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell, citing doubts about Intel’s foundry competitiveness. Meanwhile, ASML (ASML) gained over 1% after Bank of America lifted its price target to $1,082 on expectations of stronger chip equipment demand tied to the Nvidia–Intel alignment.

Corporate Movers: FedEx, UPS, Housing, and Oracle

FedEx (FDX) shares spiked nearly 6% after delivering adjusted EPS of $3.83 on $22.24B revenue, beating consensus. Cost-cutting, including a $1B savings plan, has offset tariff-related international softness. UPS (UPS), by contrast, slid after BMO downgraded the stock to Market Perform, citing weaker demand and structural trade headwinds. Shares are now down 32% year-to-date. Housing names also benefited from the Fed’s pivot, with the PHLX Housing Index (^HGX) up 16% this quarter. Builders like DR Horton (DHI) surged more than 30%, while KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) gained 20%+. On the software side, Oracle (ORCL) climbed 1.5% to $301.11, extending a 28% monthly rally on optimism it will anchor TikTok’s U.S. operations through its cloud services.

Macro Forces: Trump Tariffs, TikTok, and Manufacturing Push

Political risk is running high. Trump’s call with Xi was described as “productive,” addressing trade, fentanyl, Russia–Ukraine, and clearing an 80% U.S. consortium takeover of TikTok, involving Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz. Chinese state media stopped short of confirming details, emphasizing only a need for fair rules. Meanwhile, reports surfaced that Trump plans to deploy a $550B investment fund to supercharge U.S. factory construction, prioritizing semiconductors and critical minerals. The move follows his elimination of the de minimis exemption, reshaping parcel trade flows and adding pressure on logistics companies.

Commodities and Alternatives: Gold and Oil Under the Spotlight

Gold futures (Dec ’25) traded at $3,705.90, up 0.75%, marking a fifth straight weekly gain. Bullion remains $70 off its record high hit earlier this week. Despite Powell’s cautious stance, the combination of rate cuts, geopolitical strain, and central bank accumulation has fueled a 38% YTD rally in gold. Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio reiterated his call for gold and non-fiat currencies as critical stores of value, recommending investors allocate 10% of portfolios into gold as U.S. fiscal deficits expand by $3.4T over the decade under Trump’s tax plan. In energy, WTI crude (CL=F) held at $62.89, down 1.07%, still pacing for a modest weekly gain as Russian supply risk kept a floor under prices.

Broader Market Sentiment: Bonds, Yields, and Risk Appetite

Treasuries wobbled Friday, with the 10-year yield at 4.143%, up 2 bps, while the 2-year stood at 3.59%. The VIX remained subdued at 15.81, underscoring risk appetite despite political volatility. Analysts note that investors are balancing rich equity multiples with improving Q3 earnings outlooks: Bloomberg Intelligence data shows 22% of S&P 500 companies issuing guidance above consensus, the strongest in a year, with forecast EPS growth at 6.9% for Q3.

Market Outlook: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Despite stretched valuations, the combination of Fed easing, improving earnings sentiment, and strong leadership from mega-cap tech underpins a bullish bias. However, rotational pressures — UPS underperformance, housing volatility, small-cap pullbacks — highlight that gains are uneven. Given the data, S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) remain Buys, backed by earnings momentum and tech catalysts. The Dow (^DJI) is a Hold, lagging in cyclical exposure but supported by Trump’s fiscal push. The Russell 2000 (^RUT), while overheated after its breakout, is a tactical Hold as volatility rises. Gold (XAU/USD) remains a Buy as a hedge, while oil sits at a cautious Hold awaiting OPEC+ clarity.

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