Stock Market Weekly Forecast March 2–6: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Gap Lower on Iran Strikes — AVGO Earnings, NFP Friday

Stock Market Weekly Forecast March 2–6, 2026: Iran Strikes Send Futures Gapping Lower, Nvidia (NVDA) at $177.80 After 4.2% Friday Drop, Broadcom (AVGO) Earnings Wednesday With AI Revenue Doubling, NFP Friday After January's 130K Surprise, Apple (AAPL) Launches Monday — and a $10 Billion Strategist Just Said Passive Investing Is Creating a 1929-Style Crash Setup

Sunday, March 1, 2026 | TradingNews.com

Sunday evening futures paint the picture before Monday's opening bell even rings. S&P 500 futures are down 0.43%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are falling 1.05%. Nasdaq Composite futures are sliding 0.92%. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is trading at $177.80 in pre-market, having already fallen 4.2% on Friday and suffered its worst single-day loss since last spring on Thursday — despite beating earnings and raising guidance. The S&P 500 just posted its worst month since March 2025. And Saturday, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, Iran retaliated with missiles against four Gulf nations, the Strait of Hormuz reportedly closed — carrying 20% of global oil and 23% of global LNG — and President Trump called on Iranians to overthrow their government. Brent crude jumped approximately 3% to $73 per barrel before the weekend close, and analysts are warning that sustained disruption could push prices toward $90–$100. This is the backdrop for a week that includes Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) earnings Wednesday, NFP payrolls Friday, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) product launches starting Monday, and earnings from CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), and a dozen other names that will determine whether the tech rotation accelerates or stabilizes.

Iran Strikes and the Monday Open — Dow Futures Down 1.05%, the VIX Is Rising, and Every Risk Asset Faces a Repricing

The U.S.-Israel joint military operation targeted Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Iran closed its airspace. Israel declared a state of emergency. Iran retaliated with missiles on U.S. installations in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world's crude oil and nearly a quarter of its liquefied natural gas transits daily — reportedly closed. An oil tanker called the "Skylight" was attacked near Oman, and 15 Indian crew members were evacuated.

For equities, the transmission mechanism is straightforward. Higher oil prices feed into input costs, compress margins, raise inflation expectations, and delay Federal Reserve easing. The VIX was already rising into Friday's close as the S&P 500 recorded its worst monthly decline in a year. Gulf stock markets are already pricing the damage: Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index dropped nearly 5% before partially recovering. Dow futures at -1.05% on Sunday night suggest the opening gap on Monday could wipe out 400–450 points before the first trade prints. Nasdaq futures at -0.92% reflect the double burden tech stocks carry: geopolitical risk-off selling on top of the AI valuation correction that was already underway. The Israeli Shekel has held relatively steady at 3.09–3.14 per dollar, supported by Israel's strong reserves, while the Iranian Rial has collapsed to approximately 1,749,500 to the dollar — a decline of roughly one-third since early January.

If Brent crude breaches $90 per barrel this week — a scenario that becomes likely if Hormuz disruptions persist beyond 48 hours — the impact on U.S. equities becomes structural rather than tactical. A $10 per barrel sustained increase in crude has historically shaved 0.3–0.5% off annualized GDP growth and added 20–30 basis points to headline CPI. With core PPI already running at 3.6% (nearly triple the 0.3% monthly consensus) and headline CPI at 2.9%, any additional energy-driven inflation pressure eliminates the last remaining window for Fed rate cuts in 2026. The bond market is already pricing this: the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.961% despite the PPI shock — a bull flattening pattern that signals growth fears overwhelming inflation data. That yield level, 80 basis points below the Fed funds rate of 4.75%, is screaming recession risk.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $177.80 — Beat Earnings, Raised Guidance, and Still Lost More Than Any Day Since Last Spring

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $177.80 in Sunday pre-market, after falling 4.2% on Friday and posting its worst single-session decline since spring 2025 on Thursday, has become the symbol of a market that no longer rewards "good enough" from AI names. The company beat profit expectations. It raised revenue guidance for the current quarter. And the stock collapsed. The problem is not Nvidia's fundamentals — it is the multiple that those fundamentals need to justify. When a company is priced for perfection at 30x+ forward earnings and delivers merely excellence, the stock goes down because excellence was already in the price.

The Nvidia selloff was the heaviest weight on the S&P 500 on Friday, dragging the index lower even as other sectors tried to stabilize. The AI trade that lifted the market through 2024 and most of 2025 has reversed: since the Magnificent Seven peaked in October, the rotation out of growth and into defensives has been the dominant capital flow pattern. Goldman Sachs dropped 7.8% in a single session last week. The software sector is in correction territory, with fears about AI disruption cascading through industries from trucking logistics to legal services to cybersecurity.

The question hanging over the entire market is whether the massive capital expenditure driving chip revenue growth can generate returns that justify the spending. Hyperscalers — Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) — are projected to spend $670 billion combined on AI infrastructure in 2026. Amazon alone is guiding $100 billion. Alphabet is targeting $175–$185 billion. The practical returns from that spending have not yet materialized in broad-based productivity data. What has materialized is layoffs: Block is cutting 4,000 jobs, and Wall Street has been punishing any company perceived as a loser in the AI transformation. The market is repricing the timeline for AI returns from "imminent" to "years away," and that repricing is compressing the multiples on every name in the semiconductor and software supply chain.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) Earnings Wednesday — AI Revenue Doubling to $8.2 Billion, $162 Billion Backlog, and the 67% Margin Question That Decides the Stock

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on Wednesday after the close, and it is the single most consequential corporate event of the week. The company guided revenue of $19.1 billion (+28% year-over-year) with AI semiconductor revenue doubling to $8.2 billion and total semiconductor revenue jumping 50% to $12.3 billion. Infrastructure software from VMware is expected at $6.8 billion. Consensus EPS sits at $2.02. The backlog stands at $162 billion, up 47% sequentially, with $73 billion tied specifically to AI orders expected within 18 months.

AVGO closed Friday at $319.55, down $2.15 or 0.67%, with after-hours trading at $317.69. The stock has been dead money since mid-November's Q4 earnings despite delivering the strongest double-beat since 2023 — because the market focused on management's guidance for a 100 basis point sequential decline in consolidated gross margin. The forward P/E of 30.96x is actually more expensive than Nvidia's 27x, but the PEG ratio at 0.95x (below the 1.0x GARP threshold) argues the premium is justified by revenue CAGR of 24.6% through 2030.

The risk is HBM prices, which jumped 80–85% in Q1 according to TrendForce. Broadcom ships complete AI racks and clusters with third-party components including high-bandwidth memory. If the 67% adjusted EBITDA margin guide assumed lower HBM costs than what actually materialized, margins could miss — and the Q4 precedent shows what happens: a 3.18% revenue beat and 4.38% EPS beat produced a 10%+ stock decline because the margin trajectory disappointed. Iran strikes add Monday gap risk toward the $310–$315 zone. If AVGO delivers a double-beat with 67%+ margins Wednesday, the stock reprices toward $360–$380 within weeks. If margins disappoint, $290–$300 is the floor. The 4.4:1 reward-to-risk ratio makes it a buy on any Iran-driven weakness below $310.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Kicks Off Product Launches Monday — iPhone 17e and MacBook Air at $264.18

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) closed Friday at $264.18, down $8.77 or 3.21%, and CEO Tim Cook teased "a big week ahead" starting Monday morning. The company is expected to announce the iPhone 17e — a lower-cost model targeting price-sensitive markets — and a refreshed MacBook Air over the course of several days, culminating in a "special Apple experience" event on Wednesday. Apple's Q1 December quarter showed revenue of $7.01 billion (up 23.45%), though net income fell 32.51% to $1.13 billion with the net profit margin compressing to 16.08%. EPS of $13.16 grew 10.31%, but EBITDA of $2.81 billion (+22.80%) suggests the operational business is healthier than the net income decline implies.

The product launches create a potential positive catalyst for Monday's session — a rare bright spot on a day when everything else is gapping lower on Iran headlines. If the iPhone 17e pricing undercuts current SE models and targets the $450–$500 range, it opens a massive addressable market in emerging economies. The MacBook Air refresh with Apple's M4 chip could accelerate the PC replacement cycle. Whether product announcements can overpower geopolitical selling pressure on Monday is uncertain, but Apple's $264.18 price is already down 3.21% Friday, suggesting some of the broad risk-off selling has already been absorbed.

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST) — Tuesday Through Thursday Earnings Shape Rotation

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) reports Tuesday during a period of extreme pressure on software stocks. The cybersecurity sector sits at the intersection of two competing narratives: AI could disrupt software business models (bearish), but AI also creates new attack surfaces that require more cybersecurity spending (bullish). How CRWD guides on AI-related demand will set the tone for the entire software complex.

Target (NYSE:TGT) reports Tuesday under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took the helm in January. The shares have been rising in 2026 after a dismal 2025, and the report will reveal whether the turnaround is driven by structural improvements or simply mean reversion. December retail sales showed consumer spending stalling at the end of 2025, with weak labor market growth cited as the primary drag. If Target confirms improving same-store sales and margins, the defensive rotation into consumer names accelerates.

Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) also reports Tuesday, providing a read on electronics demand — critical for gauging whether the AI hardware cycle is translating into consumer spending or remaining confined to enterprise. Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), On Holding (NYSE:ONON), and Viking Holdings (NYSE:VIK) round out Tuesday's calendar.

Costco (NASDAQ:COST) reports Thursday alongside Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Kroger (NYSE:KR), JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL), Samsara (NYSE:IOT), Guidewire Software (NYSE:GWRE), and Gap (NYSE:GAP). Costco's stock has improved in 2026 after a weak 2025, and same-store sales momentum will determine whether the warehouse club model is gaining share in a cautious consumer environment. Marvell Technology's earnings follow Broadcom by one day, providing a second read on semiconductor demand and the AI infrastructure buildout — if Broadcom beats and Marvell confirms, the narrative shifts from "AI selloff" to "AI buying opportunity." If both disappoint on margins, the semiconductor rotation deepens.

MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) reports Monday alongside EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS). Wednesday adds Veeva Systems (NYSE:VEEV), Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B), and Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA). Friday brings Genesco (NYSE:GCO). The breadth of earnings across technology, retail, cybersecurity, consumer staples, and industrial names means every session this week carries event risk — and with Iran headlines dominating the first 48 hours, the interaction between geopolitical selling and earnings surprises will produce the most volatile week of 2026.

NFP Payrolls Friday — 130K January Surprise, Unemployment at 4.3%, and the Number That Breaks the Range

The February employment report arrives Friday morning and is the most important economic release of the week. January's data surprised to the upside with 130,000 jobs added — more than double the consensus forecast — but the same report revised prior months lower, revealing that 2025 hiring was weaker than originally reported. The unemployment rate printed at 4.3%, and the question for February is whether the January strength was genuine momentum or a statistical anomaly that gets revised away.

The ADP private-sector employment report on Wednesday provides an early read. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday frame the production and services sides of the economy. The Fed's Beige Book, also Wednesday, describes economic conditions across all 12 Federal Reserve districts ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. Fed speakers this week include New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday — both will be asked about the interaction between Iran-driven energy price shocks and the already-elevated inflation picture.

The delayed January retail sales report also arrives Friday. December retail sales stalled, with economists blaming weak labor market growth for slower consumer spending. If January retail sales confirm that consumers pulled back further, the Treasury curve's bull flattening signal — growth collapse overriding inflation — gets validated. The 10-year yield at 3.961% despite core PPI at 3.6% is already one of the most aggressive growth warnings from the bond market in years. A weak payrolls number (unemployment above 4.3% or headline below 80K) combined with soft retail sales would likely force the Fed's hand toward an emergency easing signal at the March meeting, regardless of the inflation picture.

The 1929 Crash Parallel — A $10 Billion Strategist's Warning About Passive Investing Bubble

Michael Green, chief market strategist at Simplify Asset Management — the firm managing over $10 billion in assets — went public this week with a warning that has nothing to do with AI valuations or Iran strikes. His concern is the structural bubble in passive investing, which he describes as creating a framework for a 1929-style crash. Global assets under management in passive funds have soared more than 400% from 2012 to 2023, overtaking actively managed assets. By Green's estimates, flows into passive vehicles are inflating U.S. stock market valuations by approximately 15% per year, with the effect concentrated in large-cap securities.

The mechanism is mechanical: money flows into index funds, index funds buy the stocks in the index proportional to market cap, buying pushes prices higher, higher prices increase market cap, and higher market cap increases the proportion of future flows. It is a reflexive loop that amplifies valuations without any fundamental link to earnings growth, cash flow generation, or business quality. Green argues that much of what has been attributed to AI-driven multiple expansion over the past two years was actually produced by this passive flow dynamic — AI was the narrative, but the money was already going in regardless of the story.

The parallel to 1929 comes from the reversal scenario. If layoffs increase — and AI-driven white-collar displacement is a growing fear — more Americans cash out retirement accounts, flows into passive funds slow or reverse, and the same reflexive mechanism that inflated valuations begins to deflate them. Green points to private credit as the potential ignition source: software companies account for approximately 40% of all private equity-backed loans outstanding, and the software sector is already in correction territory as AI disruption fears cascade through business models. Stress in private credit could trigger forced selling that cascades into public markets through the same passive fund structures that inflated them.

Separately, Citrini Research published a paper exploring how the S&P 500 could potentially fall 40–60% in the years ahead, driven by AI-related mass white-collar layoffs, a surge in unemployment, collapsing consumer spending, and bank stress from mortgage defaults. The authors explicitly note the paper is a thought exercise rather than a prediction, but the scenarios are not implausible — and the fact that serious research institutions are modeling 40–60% drawdowns reflects a level of systemic concern that was absent six months ago.

The Tech Rotation Is Real — Software Selloff, AI Disruption Fears, and the Shift Into Defensives

Wall Street has been systematically punishing companies perceived as AI losers. The selling has rolled through trucking logistics, legal services, financial software, and enterprise SaaS with sudden, severe corrections. The fear is not abstract — it is binary: either a company's business model survives the AI transformation or it does not, and the market is pricing the "does not" scenario for an expanding list of industries.

The rotation into defensives is measurable. SPYD ETF (NYSEARCA:SPYD) — the high-dividend, equal-weight fund with 80% SMID-cap exposure and near-zero technology allocation — closed Friday at $47.99, within 1.1% of its 52-week high of $48.51. The fund has outperformed SPY since June 2025 on total return, delivering approximately 17% with a 4.11% dividend yield and 0.07% expense ratio at just 13.7x P/E. While SPY was posting its worst month in a year, SPYD was pressing cycle highs. The message is unambiguous: institutional capital is leaving growth and entering income. That flow accelerates this week as Iran compounds the tech rotation with geopolitical risk-off selling.

Crypto markets are experiencing the same rotation. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades near $66,295, down 48% from its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index reads 11 — extreme fear. But Bitcoin ETFs have retained 88% of their $55 billion in cumulative inflows despite the drawdown, with only $6.5 billion leaving since October. XRP ETFs are the standout: $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows with 40+ consecutive positive inflow days, capturing 50% of all altcoin ETF capital while Ethereum ETFs have hemorrhaged $3.3 billion. The institutional preference for XRP over ETH — reflected in Friday's session where XRP funds added $2.21 million while ETH lost $43 million — is one of the most dramatic flow divergences in crypto ETF history.

Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) at £14 — A Crash-Opportunity Name for Defense and Nuclear Exposure

Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) at approximately £14 sits at the intersection of two structural tailwinds that Iran strikes amplify: NATO defense spending increases and the nuclear energy revolution through small modular reactors (SMRs). A broader market crash — the kind Green warns about or that Citrini models at 40–60% — could push RR. toward £5–£10, which would represent one of the most compelling buying opportunities in European industrials. The company's defense and nuclear positioning provides revenue streams that are largely immune to consumer spending cycles, making it a name to accumulate aggressively if markets enter a sustained correction phase.

USD/JPY at 156.00 — Treasury Growth Warning Meets Iran Energy Shock

The currency market is pricing the conflict through multiple lenses simultaneously. USD/JPY at 156.00 faces competing forces: the dollar benefits from energy self-sufficiency and safe-haven demand, while the yen benefits from carry trade unwinding as risk appetite collapses. The Treasury curve bull flattening — 10-year at 3.961% despite core PPI at 3.6% — signals that the bond market is pricing growth deterioration that the equity market has not yet fully absorbed. The Bank of Japan has raised rates to 0.25% with Governor Ueda signaling further tightening if conditions warrant. CFTC yen net long positions were trimmed to ¥11.5K from ¥13.0K, creating room to rebuild yen longs. The weight of evidence favors selling USD/JPY rallies toward 157.00–157.50 with a target of 152.50, using NFP Friday as the catalyst: weak payrolls (unemployment above 4.3%) break the triangle to the downside through 155.65.

The Verdict — Stock Market Week of March 2–6, 2026: Bearish Near-Term, Selectively Buying Dips, Defensive Positioning Until NFP Clarifies

The week opens with every U.S. equity index gapping lower. Dow futures at -1.05% project a 400+ point opening loss. Nasdaq futures at -0.92% put additional pressure on an AI trade that was already bleeding before Iran added geopolitical tail risk. Nvidia (NVDA) at $177.80 pre-market carries the heaviest weight. Brent crude at $73 with $90–$100 upside risk if Hormuz disruptions persist threatens to reignite inflation at the exact moment the bond market is pricing a growth collapse. Core PPI at 3.6% already eliminated the Fed's comfort zone for easing. The S&P 500 just posted its worst month in a year, and the VIX is climbing.

Monday: Defensive. The ISM Manufacturing PMI sets the economic tone. Apple (AAPL) product launches provide a potential offset to the Iran gap, but product announcements rarely overpower geopolitical selling in the first session. MongoDB (MDB) earnings are a software sentiment indicator. Cash levels should be elevated. No new long positions in technology until the Iran picture stabilizes.

Tuesday: Watch Retail and Cybersecurity. CrowdStrike (CRWD) is the software test — if CRWD guides positively on AI-driven cybersecurity demand, the software selloff may find a floor. Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) reveal consumer health. Ross Stores (ROST) and AutoZone (AZO) are recession indicators — if discount retail and auto parts outperform, the economy is weaker than payrolls suggest. Fed speakers Williams and Kashkari will be asked about Iran and inflation; any hawkish tone extends the selloff.

Wednesday: The Pivotal Session. Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the close are the week's make-or-break event. AI revenue doubling to $8.2 billion, a $162 billion backlog, and five XPU customers make AVGO the highest-conviction AI earnings play of the quarter. If the 67% adjusted EBITDA margin holds and EPS beats $2.02, the stock reprices toward $360–$380 and lifts the entire semiconductor complex. If margins miss on HBM cost pressure, AVGO revisits $290–$300 and the AI selloff accelerates. ADP payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and the Fed Beige Book provide macro context. The Apple "special experience" event could generate consumer hardware enthusiasm. Buy AVGO on any Iran-driven dip below $310 with a stop on weekly close below $285.

Thursday: Confirmation or Rejection. Marvell Technology (MRVL) confirms or contradicts Broadcom's AI demand picture. Costco (COST) and Kroger (KR) provide the definitive read on consumer spending and defensive rotation momentum. Burlington Stores (BURL) and Gap (GAP) are discretionary indicators. Jobless claims provide the final pre-NFP labor market signal.

Friday: The Catalyst. February NFP payrolls decide the week's direction. January's 130K jobs beat was a positive surprise, but prior months were revised lower. If February confirms labor market resilience (unemployment at or below 4.3%, headline above 100K), the Treasury growth warning gets pushed back and equities stabilize. If unemployment rises above 4.3% or headline prints below 80K, the bond market's bull flattening signal is validated, the Fed is forced toward an emergency easing posture, and the S&P 500 breaks the February low. The delayed January retail sales report arrives simultaneously — if consumer spending confirmed the December stall, the recession probability spikes. Consumer credit data rounds out the session.

Positioning for the week: raise cash Monday, buy AVGO below $310, hold SPYD (NYSEARCA:SPYD) as the defensive anchor yielding 4.11% at 13.7x P/E, accumulate Bitcoin ETFs on any retest of $60,000–$63,000 BTC support, buy XRP ETFs (XRPI/XRPR) if the Monday gap pushes toward $6.80–$7.20, and sell USD/JPY rallies toward 157.00 targeting 152.50. Avoid initiating new long positions in software until CrowdStrike reports Tuesday. Iran is the dominant variable for the first 48 hours; NFP is the dominant variable for the second half. Between them sits the most important earnings week of Q1. Buckle in

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