Tesla (TSLA) Sinks, Then Rallies: Trump Blow, Q2 Miss, and a Repriced AI-Energy Breakout

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Faces Margin Headwinds, Flat Q2 Volumes, Trump Tension, and Stock Drop — Yet Bulls Charge on AI and Energy Pivot

Q2 Delivery Miss, Margin Pressures, Trump Attacks, and Stock Drop Shake Bulls—But Not for Long

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Q2 deliveries of 444,135 units, triggering a muted to negative reaction across markets. Flat year-over-year volumes disappointed investors already wary of demand erosion in China, a stalled sales curve in Europe, and an increasingly saturated U.S. market. The company’s stock initially dropped sharply, reacting not only to the flat delivery print but also to growing macro noise, including renewed public criticism from Donald Trump, who slammed Tesla’s China reliance and attacked EV subsidies in a Truth Social post. This one-two punch—a demand plateau and political headwind—sent TSLA briefly below $690, rattling sentiment.

Add to that a margin picture still deteriorating. Gross margin dropped to 17.4% in Q1, with similar weakness expected in Q2. Price wars in China remain intense, with BYD slashing prices again in June and Huawei’s backed brands gaining share. Analysts now see Model 3/Y ASPs under $38,000, compressing profitability despite FSD progress. But while these pressures are real, the market’s recovery back to above $725 shows something deeper is taking root.

Megapack Emerges as Defensive Growth Engine Amid Volatility

Tesla’s Energy segment, long seen as a side story, delivered $1.3 billion in Q2 revenue, up over 50% YoY, now commanding institutional respect. As EV unit growth fades, the non-cyclical nature of Megapack deployments—backed by utility-scale grid demand and government subsidies—offers Tesla a diversification moat. With Energy now making up nearly 12% of company revenue, and with gross margin expanding above 22%, this business is no longer a hedge—it’s a second engine.

Multiple grid projects across the U.S., EU, and Australia are on deck. The Biden administration’s renewed $8.5 billion clean energy grid program directly benefits Tesla. Goldman Sachs expects Energy revenue to double by mid-2026, and Tesla has already won multi-year deals in Texas and Southern California. As a defensive sector during rate-sensitive slowdowns, Energy helps justify TSLA’s premium valuation even amid automotive volatility.

AI, Dojo, and Trump-Proof Infrastructure Repricing the Tech Story

What re-lit the fire under Tesla stock isn’t just Energy—it’s AI. Despite Trump’s renewed push against EV mandates and comments implying subsidies may vanish under a second term, investors are shifting from a subsidy-based EV narrative to an infrastructure-based AI thesis. Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer is now viewed as a monetizable data and compute platform, not just a CapEx drag. Potential Oracle integration and xAI’s spinout strategy signal a path to revenue beyond car sales.

FSD v12.4 deployment accelerated in Q2, with attach rates nearing 13.2% globally, and now priced via monthly subscriptions—recurring revenue with high margins. Elon Musk’s framing of Tesla as an “AI-native hardware company” is landing with institutional tech allocators.

Morgan Stanley’s AI-weighted bull case implies $1,050/share, while RBC Capital assigns $155/share to AI+Software, reinforcing a narrative that’s immune to short-term political volatility. Even if Trump slashes subsidies, Dojo, FSD, and xAI are self-contained verticals with global demand.

Technical Drop Was Bought Aggressively — $690 Was a Trap, $765 Is Next

TSLA briefly dropped below $690 post-delivery report, but support held. That flush was bought aggressively, with volume spiking and options flow tilting long. The stock reclaimed its 200-day moving average, with RSI at 61 and MACD printing a clean bullish crossover.

Open interest for $750–$800 strikes in July is building fast. Short interest dropped to 2.3%, and 13F filings show Bridgewater, Citadel, and Renaissance added exposure in late June. Price is holding above $725, with support at $695–$700, and upside targets remain:

• $765: April breakdown and key gamma wall

• $800: Round number and July option cluster

• $900–$1,000: Trigger zone if Dojo monetization or Energy upside surprises

Valuation Story Is Rebuilt on SOTP, Not Subsidies or Delivery Hype

Tesla’s forward P/E jumped to 64x, up from 52x a month ago, as analysts abandon delivery-based models and shift to sum-of-the-parts valuation.

• Auto = $710/share

• Energy = $85/share

• AI/Software = $155/share That puts price targets in the $950–$1,050 zone, even assuming 2025 EPS of $11.32. This math doesn't need explosive delivery growth or subsidy extensions—it banks on diversified verticals.

Final Verdict: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a Buy — Even After Trump’s Attacks and Delivery Miss

Tesla is no longer just an EV story—and that’s why it’s working. Despite Trump’s attacks, despite a drop in stock post-Q2 deliveries, and despite margin pressure, the stock recovered above key levels. The market is focused on Energy scale, AI monetization, and infrastructure defensibility.

TSLA is a Buy. $765 is next, $800 in reach, $1,000 if Dojo or Energy deliver upside. Ignore the noise—this is a multi-vertical breakout in motion.

That's TradingNEWS