The War Premium Is Gone and the Glut Is Back — Crude Round-Trips From $114 to a 4-Month Low as OPEC+ Opens the Taps and Hormuz Clears

Crude traded at a 4-month low into Monday, with WTI slipping below $69 to around $68.50 and Brent hovering near $72 — the lowest levels since late February, and a full round-trip from the conflict spike that had oil above $114 earlier this year. That collapse is the whole story. The geopolitical premium that drove crude to a 52-week high near $126 during the Strait of Hormuz crisis has evaporated, and the market has refocused on the structural oversupply that defined the start of 2026. The arc has been violent. Oil opened the year in bearish territory with Brent near $62, then exploded above $114 in May and spiked again in early June as the US-Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and drained global supply. Now, with the conflict de-escalating and Gulf producers restoring exports, the entire war premium has been given back — Brent has retraced from $126 to $72, and WTI sits at $68.50, both hovering near their lowest since the conflict erupted in late February. The reversal is being driven by a stack of bearish catalysts that all landed at once: OPEC+ agreeing to pump more, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Saudi Arabia cutting its selling price, and US-Iran talks progressing. Each removed a layer of the risk premium that had inflated prices, and together they've dragged crude back to the levels it traded before the war. The technical picture confirms the shift — Brent's daily signal reads strong sell, and the moving averages that flipped bullish during the conflict have rolled back over. That's a market where the geopolitical bid has fully faded and the fundamentals are reasserting control. For the forecast, the round-trip is the key context. Oil isn't at $68.50 because demand collapsed — it's here because the supply shock reversed and the underlying glut never went away. The war premium was always going to fade once the Strait reopened, and it has. What's left is a market staring at OPEC+ unwinding its cuts, record US shale output, and softening demand — the bearish trifecta that had prices near $62 before the conflict, and that's pulling them back toward those levels now. The premium is gone. The glut is back.

OPEC+ opens the taps again: +188,000 bpd for August

The single biggest driver of oil's slide is OPEC+ pumping more, and the group did it again over the weekend. Seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day for August — another modest increase in a progressive unwinding of the long-standing production curbs that had been propping up prices. The decision reflects the group's confidence that Middle East conditions are stabilizing and that it can push more barrels into the market without collapsing prices. The August increase continues a pattern that's been in place all year. OPEC+ has been steadily restoring the voluntary cuts it made in prior years, adding barrels month after month as it prioritizes market share over price support. The 188,000 bpd bump follows earlier increases, and each one adds to the supply that's weighing on the market. When the world's most important oil cartel is actively adding production into a market already worried about a glut, the direction of prices is clear — down. The timing amplifies the bearish signal. OPEC+ is raising output at the exact moment the Strait of Hormuz is reopening and Gulf supply is being restored, which means the barrels the group is adding are landing on top of the barrels returning from the conflict disruption. That double dose of supply is why crude sank to a 4-month low, and it's the core of the bearish case. The group's willingness to keep adding production signals it's not defending any particular price level — it's managing the unwinding of its cuts and betting demand can absorb the extra supply. For the forecast, the OPEC+ decision is the dominant bearish force. As long as the group keeps adding barrels, the supply side stays heavy and prices stay pressured. The 188,000 bpd August increase is the latest confirmation that OPEC+ is in supply-restoration mode, not price-defense mode, and that posture caps any rally and reinforces the downtrend. The risk the market is watching is whether OPEC+ can manage the returning supply without triggering a price collapse — because if the group keeps pumping into a growing surplus, the downside opens toward the levels the most bearish forecasts warn about. For now, the taps are open, the barrels are flowing, and the price is falling. OPEC+ adding 188,000 bpd for August is the market telling itself the glut is real and getting worse.

The Strait of Hormuz reopens

The supply shock that drove oil to $126 is reversing, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening is the mechanism. Tanker traffic through the critical chokepoint — through which a huge share of the world's crude flows — showed clear signs of normalizing, with total daily flows climbing back above 10 million barrels as vessels resumed transit. The recovery in the strait is what's letting Gulf supply return to the market, and it's a primary reason crude has retraced the entire war premium. The producer-level recovery is well underway. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have rebounded to about 90% of their pre-war baseline as more tankers successfully transit the waterway, and the UAE — which exited OPEC during the conflict — has restored its exports to more than 3.9 million barrels per day, routing tankers through the strait and relying on a pipeline that bypasses the chokepoint. Iraq is showing tentative signs of shipping recovery as well. That's the Gulf supply machine coming back online, barrel by barrel, and every barrel that returns adds to the downward pressure on prices. The normalization isn't perfectly smooth — several vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the route, a reminder that the situation remains fragile and the risk premium hasn't gone to zero. But the trend is unmistakable: the strait is reopening, the Gulf producers are restoring flows, and the supply that was disrupted during the conflict is coming back. That's the opposite of the dynamic that drove prices to $126, when the effective closure of the strait forced Middle East producers to cut crude output by more than 11 million barrels per day at the peak. For the forecast, the Hormuz reopening is the reversal of the supply shock, and it's the reason the war premium has faded. The market had priced a prolonged disruption — the EIA's June outlook assumed the strait would stay effectively closed and modeled Brent averaging $105 in June and July on that basis. The actual reopening happening faster than assumed is why crude is at $68.50 and $72 rather than $105 — the disruption the market feared didn't last, and the supply came back sooner. The residual risk is that the normalization stalls or reverses, which would re-inject a premium. But the base case is a strait that keeps reopening and Gulf supply that keeps returning, and that's a bearish force pulling prices lower. The chokepoint is clearing, and the barrels are flowing again.

Saudi Arabia cuts its price to Asia

A telling bearish signal came from Saudi Arabia itself: the kingdom cut the selling price of its main crude grade to Asia, lowering the August premium to a $1.50 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark. When the world's largest exporter cuts its official selling price, it's signaling softer demand and a willingness to compete harder for market share — both bearish for prices. The official selling price, or OSP, is Saudi Arabia's monthly read on demand conditions in its most important market, and a cut to a discount tells you the kingdom sees Asian demand softening or supply competition intensifying. Setting the August price at a $1.50 discount to the regional benchmark, rather than a premium, is the kind of move Saudi Arabia makes when it wants to keep its barrels flowing into a well-supplied market — it's pricing to move volume, not to maximize per-barrel revenue. That's a demand-side warning to go with the supply-side flood. The OSP cut aligns with the broader bearish picture. Saudi Arabia is simultaneously ramping exports back toward pre-war levels, agreeing to OPEC+ output increases, and cutting its selling price — a combination that says the kingdom is prioritizing volume and market share as the conflict premium fades. When the swing producer is adding supply and cutting prices at the same time, it's a clear signal that the market is oversupplied and the path of least resistance is lower. For the forecast, the OSP cut is a confirmation of the bearish demand backdrop. It's not just that supply is returning — it's that the largest producer sees the demand side softening enough to justify pricing its crude at a discount. That's the kind of signal that reinforces the downtrend, because it comes from the producer with the best view of actual physical demand in the world's most important growth market. The cut also has competitive implications: when Saudi Arabia lowers its price to Asia, it pressures other producers to match, which can trigger a broader repricing lower across the physical market. For a market already weighed down by OPEC+ increases and the Hormuz reopening, a Saudi price cut to Asia is another brick on the bearish pile. The swing producer is pricing for a glut, and that tells you where it thinks prices are headed.

US-Iran talks and the fading geopolitical bid

The final piece of the war premium's collapse is diplomacy. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with US and Iranian officials in Doha, and that progress toward a permanent resolution is draining the last of the geopolitical premium from crude. The market that priced $126 on fears of a prolonged conflict is now pricing $72 on hopes of a lasting peace. The de-escalation matters because the entire spike was geopolitical. Oil surged from $62 to above $114 because the US-Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened a sustained supply disruption. As the conflict winds down and talks progress, the premium that fear built unwinds, and prices fall back toward the levels the fundamentals justify. Each diplomatic step — the Doha meetings, Trump's optimism, the mediators' involvement — removes another layer of risk premium and pulls crude lower. The fading geopolitical bid is the reason the market has been able to focus on the bearish supply picture. During the conflict, the war premium overwhelmed the fundamentals, and prices traded well above where supply and demand alone would put them. With the conflict de-escalating, the premium is deflating, and the underlying oversupply is reasserting control. That's the transition the market has made over the past weeks — from a fear-driven premium to a fundamentals-driven discount. For the forecast, the fading geopolitical bid is what allows the bearish fundamentals to dominate. As long as the talks progress and the conflict stays contained, the premium keeps deflating and prices keep drifting toward the oversupply-implied levels in the low $60s. The residual risk is real, though — a stalling of the talks or a fresh escalation would re-inject a premium fast, and oil has shown it can spike 20%-plus on geopolitical headlines. But the base case, with talks progressing and Trump optimistic, is a continued fade of the premium and a market refocused on the glut. The geopolitical bid that drove oil to $126 is fading toward zero, and what's left is a well-supplied market pricing for a surplus. Diplomacy is doing to the premium what OPEC+ is doing to the supply balance — pushing prices lower.

The glut is back: structural oversupply

Strip away the geopolitics and what's left is a structurally oversupplied market, and that glut is the fundamental force pulling oil lower. Global supply is set to outpace demand in 2026, driven by OPEC+ restoring its cuts and resilient non-OPEC production growth, with US shale output at record highs near 13.6 million barrels per day. That's the bearish backdrop that had Brent near $62 before the conflict, and it's reasserting now. The demand side is soft. The EIA's outlook actually forecasts global oil demand to decrease over the course of 2026 — a downgrade from earlier projections of modest growth — reflecting the drag from elevated prices during the conflict and a moderate global economic backdrop. When demand is flat-to-falling and supply is growing from OPEC+ increases plus record US shale, the balance tips toward surplus, and surpluses push prices down. The US shale machine is central to the glut. At roughly 13.6 million barrels per day, American production is at record levels, and it keeps growing regardless of OPEC+ policy — every dollar of price support OPEC+ provides invites more US shale supply, which caps the upside. That structural dynamic is why the bank forecasts cluster in the low $60s: the world simply has more oil than it needs at current demand levels, and the extra barrels have to be priced to clear. For the forecast, the return of the glut is the dominant medium-term force. The war premium was a temporary overlay on a fundamentally bearish market, and with the premium fading, the oversupply is back in control. OPEC+ unwinding cuts, US shale at records, non-OPEC growth from Brazil and Guyana, and softening demand all point the same direction — toward a surplus that keeps prices pressured. The projected surpluses later this year suggest that voluntary and involuntary production cuts will eventually be needed to prevent excessive inventory accumulation, which is the mechanism that would eventually stabilize prices around the low-$60s the banks forecast. Until those cuts materialize, the glut keeps building and the price keeps sliding. The oversupply that defined early 2026 never went away — the conflict just masked it for a few months. Now the mask is off, and the market is staring at the same bearish balance it started the year with, dragged back toward the levels that balance implies. The glut is the story again.

Technicals: strong sell across the tape

The chart confirms what the fundamentals say — oil is in a downtrend, and the technicals are bearish. Brent's daily buy/sell signal reads strong sell based on technical indicators and moving averages, and the momentum that flipped bullish during the conflict spike has rolled back over as prices retraced the entire move. That's a market where the trend has turned decisively lower. The reversal in the technical picture tracks the reversal in the fundamentals. During the Hormuz crisis, the monthly indicators on both Brent and WTI flipped from strong sell to strong buy, confirming the geopolitical-driven rally. Now that the premium has faded and prices have crashed back, the signals have flipped again — the bullish momentum is gone, and the bearish structure that dominated the pre-conflict period from 2023 through early 2026 is reasserting. The technicals are following the price back down. The key levels frame the downside. WTI at $68.50 sits above near-term support around $66, then the $64 zone that analysts flag as a pivot, and then the psychological $60 level that aligns with the bearish bank forecasts. Brent at $72 sits above support near $70, then $66, then the $60-to-$64 zone, with the 52-week low of $58.72 as the deeper target if the selloff extends. On the upside, WTI faces resistance near $70 and $72, while Brent faces resistance near $72 and the $76 level that Goldman flags as its ceiling. For the forecast, the strong-sell technicals argue for treating rallies as selling opportunities within a downtrend. The bearish signal alignment says the path of least resistance is lower, and the moving averages overhead act as resistance on any bounce. The market has to hold its support levels — $66 and $64 for WTI, $70 and $66 for Brent — to avoid a deeper leg toward $60 and below. The technical structure aligns perfectly with the fundamental picture: a market where supply is flooding back, demand is soft, and the geopolitical premium has faded, all pointing prices lower. The strong-sell reading is the chart's confirmation of the bearish thesis. Until the technicals turn — until oil reclaims its moving averages and the signals flip back to buy — the trend is down, and the bounces are to be sold. The tape and the fundamentals agree, and they agree on lower.

The soft-jobs macro and the demand question

The macro backdrop adds another layer to the bearish oil case through the demand channel. The soft US jobs report — 57,000 June payrolls versus 110,000 expected — that lifted stocks and gold by cutting Fed hike odds is a double-edged sword for oil, because weak labor data also signals softer economic activity, and softer activity means weaker energy demand. For most risk assets, soft jobs data is bullish because it lowers rate-hike odds. For oil, the read is more complicated. Lower rates can support demand at the margin, but a weakening labor market points to a cooling economy, and a cooling economy consumes less fuel. The 57,000 payroll print, made softer by downward revisions and a labor-force-participation-driven drop in unemployment, is the kind of data that raises demand concerns for a commodity as economically sensitive as crude. The demand question is the swing factor that separates a controlled decline from a deeper rout. The bearish case is built on supply — OPEC+ increases, Hormuz reopening, record shale — but if demand also softens, the surplus grows faster and prices fall harder. The EIA already forecasts demand to decrease in 2026, and soft US economic data reinforces that concern. A market that's oversupplied on the production side and softening on the demand side is a market with real downside. The disinflation angle cuts the same way. Falling oil prices are themselves part of the disinflation story that's driving the dovish Fed repricing — cheaper crude means lower inflation, which lowers hike odds. So oil's decline feeds the macro narrative that's lifting other assets, creating a feedback loop where softer demand and falling prices reinforce each other. For the forecast, the macro demand question is a bearish input that compounds the supply glut. Soft economic data raises the risk that demand disappoints just as supply floods back, which is the combination that produces the deepest price declines. The counterpoint is that lower prices eventually stimulate demand — cheaper fuel encourages consumption — which provides a natural floor. But in the near term, the soft-jobs signal adds to the bearish case by raising doubts about whether demand can absorb the returning supply. The macro that's bullish for stocks is bearish for oil, because a cooling economy burns less crude. Oil's decline and the soft data are two sides of the same disinflationary coin, and both point lower.

JPMorgan's $60 call and the $30s tail risk

The sell-side forecasts crystallize the bearish case, and JPMorgan's is the clearest. The bank sees Brent averaging around $60 per barrel in 2026, a bearish call underpinned by soft supply-demand fundamentals — world demand expanding modestly while supply grows faster — that point to lower prices in the coming months. From Brent at $72, that's a call for roughly 17% further downside. The reasoning is the glut. JPMorgan's balances project sizable surpluses later this year, and the bank argues that voluntary and involuntary production cuts will eventually be needed to prevent excessive inventory accumulation — a dynamic that would help stabilize Brent around $60. In other words, prices fall toward $60, forcing supply discipline that eventually puts a floor there. That's the base case for the bear thesis: a controlled decline toward the low $60s as the surplus builds. The tail risk is worse. JPMorgan warns of a potential reset toward the $30s if OPEC+ fails to manage the returning oversupply — a scenario where the group keeps pumping into a growing glut and prices collapse the way they have in prior oversupply cycles. That's the downside the market is watching: not the base-case decline to $60, but the tail scenario where supply discipline breaks down and prices crash. Other banks are less extreme but still bearish. Goldman targets Brent below $76, and the EIA sees Brent around $64 and WTI around $61 in 2027 as the market normalizes. The consensus converges on a $60-to-$75 Brent range for the medium term, with the energy transition and record non-OPEC supply capping the upside. For the forecast, the bank targets define the bearish trajectory. The base case is a decline toward $60-$64 as the glut builds, which aligns with the technical pivots and the fundamental oversupply. The tail risk is a break toward the $30s if OPEC+ mismanages the surplus — a low-probability but high-impact scenario that keeps the risk skewed to the downside. The upside case, in the bank forecasts, is capped near $76 by structural oversupply. That's a market where the analysts see limited upside and meaningful downside, with $60 the gravitational center and the $30s the tail. JPMorgan's $60 call is the anchor for the bearish forecast, and the $30s warning is the reason to respect the downside risk. The banks see a glut, and gluts price lower.

The structural floor: OPEC spare capacity and the stock deficit

The bearish case isn't unlimited, and two structural factors provide a floor under prices. First, OPEC's spare capacity has been reduced to around 2.5 million barrels per day after the UAE's exit from the group during the conflict — a thinner buffer than before, which means the market has less cushion to absorb a fresh supply shock. Second, the conflict left a cumulative stock deficit estimated near 900 million barrels, as the Hormuz disruption drained global inventories that now have to be rebuilt. Those two factors are the structural counterweight to the glut. The reduced spare capacity matters because it limits how much extra supply can come online quickly if demand surprises to the upside or a new disruption hits. A market with only 2.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity is a market that's more vulnerable to price spikes than one with a fat buffer, and that vulnerability puts a floor under how low prices can sustainably go — because any demand surprise or supply hiccup gets amplified by the thin cushion. The 900 million barrel stock deficit is the second floor. Global inventories were drained during the conflict, and rebuilding them creates a source of demand — refiners and storage operators need to restock, which absorbs some of the returning supply and cushions the price decline. The stock deficit means the surplus has somewhere to go initially, filling the hole the conflict created before it starts pushing prices lower in earnest. For the forecast, the structural floor is the reason the decline is likely controlled rather than a crash — at least in the base case. The reduced spare capacity and the inventory deficit provide support that argues against JPMorgan's $30s tail scenario, because a market that thin and that low on inventories doesn't easily collapse. The floor aligns with the base-case forecasts of $60-$64 rather than the tail-risk $30s. But the floor isn't unlimited. If OPEC+ keeps pumping past the point where the stock deficit is filled, and if demand keeps softening, the structural support gives way and the deeper downside opens. The floor buys the market time, not immunity. For the forecast, the spare-capacity and stock-deficit dynamics are the reason to anchor the bear case around $60 rather than the $30s — a structural support that cushions the decline without preventing it. The glut pushes prices toward $60; the thin spare capacity and the inventory hole keep them from crashing much below it, absent an OPEC+ policy failure. That's the balance: bearish, but with a floor.

The wildcards: Hormuz, Iran, and Venezuela

The upside case for oil is entirely geopolitical, and three wildcards could re-inject a premium fast. First, the Strait of Hormuz normalization isn't complete — vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the route, and any renewed disruption would immediately spike prices by re-closing the chokepoint that carries a huge share of global crude. Second, the US-Iran talks could stall or collapse, reversing the de-escalation that's been draining the premium and reigniting the supply-shock fears that drove crude to $126. Third, Venezuela sits as a considerable upside risk — the country holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and instability there could disrupt supply or reshape global flows. These wildcards matter because oil has shown it can move 20%-plus on geopolitical headlines. The entire arc from $62 to $114 and back to $72 was geopolitically driven, and the same forces that drove the spike could drive another one. The market is pricing a benign geopolitical outcome — Hormuz reopening, Iran talks progressing, no fresh shocks — and any deviation from that path re-injects a premium. That's the asymmetry in the current setup: the fundamentals point lower, but the geopolitical tail risks point sharply higher. History underscores the point. Regime changes in oil-producing nations have historically triggered substantial price spikes, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak, and further destabilization of Iran could lead to sustained higher prices. The Venezuela situation adds another layer of potential supply disruption. These aren't base-case scenarios, but they're live risks that could flip the market from bearish to bullish overnight. For the forecast, the geopolitical wildcards are the only real upside case, and they're binary and unpredictable. The base case is a bearish, oversupplied market drifting toward $60 as the premium fades and the glut builds. The upside case requires a geopolitical shock — a Hormuz re-closure, an Iran-talks collapse, or a Venezuela disruption — that re-injects the premium. That asymmetry argues for a bearish base case with respect for the geopolitical tail. The market can sell rallies toward the fundamentals in the low $60s, but it has to keep one eye on the Middle East, because the same forces that just deflated the premium could re-inflate it. The wildcards are why oil is never a clean short — the fundamentals say lower, but the geopolitics can say higher in an instant. For now, with talks progressing and Hormuz reopening, the base case dominates. But the wildcards are the reason the downside isn't a straight line.

Scenarios: where oil goes from here

Three paths run out from WTI $68.50 and Brent $72, and the levels define each. The bear case: OPEC+ keeps adding barrels, Hormuz fully normalizes, demand softens, and the glut overwhelms the market. WTI breaks $66 and $64 toward $60, Brent breaks $70 and $66 toward the $60-$64 zone and the 52-week low near $58.72, aligning with JPMorgan's $60 Brent call. If OPEC+ mismanages the surplus, the tail scenario toward the $30s opens. This path is the base-to-bearish case, backed by the strong-sell technicals, the supply flood, and the bank forecasts. The base case: oil grinds lower in a controlled decline as the glut builds but the structural floor — 2.5 million bpd of spare capacity and the 900 million barrel stock deficit — cushions the drop. WTI ranges in the low-to-mid $60s, Brent in the mid-to-high $60s, as the surplus fills the inventory hole before pushing prices toward the $60 bank targets. This is the most probable outcome given the balance between the oversupply and the structural support, and it aligns with the consensus $60-$65 medium-term range. The bull case: a geopolitical shock — a Hormuz re-closure, an Iran-talks collapse, or a Venezuela disruption — re-injects a premium and spikes prices back toward $90 or higher, reversing the fade. This path requires a geopolitical trigger and is the only real upside, given the bearish fundamentals. The distances frame the risk: about $2.50 of cushion to WTI's $66 support, roughly $4.50 of downside to the $64 pivot, about $8.50 to the $60 bank target, and a geopolitical spike that could add $20-plus overnight. For Brent, about $2 to $70 support, $6 to $66, and $12 to $60. The near-term asymmetry favors the downside on fundamentals — supply flooding back, demand soft, technicals strong sell — with the upside capped and dependent on geopolitics. That's a market to sell rallies in, targeting the $60-$64 zone, while respecting the geopolitical tail that could flip it. Oil at $68.50 WTI and $72 Brent is a bearish market with a structural floor and a geopolitical wildcard — the base case is lower, the tail risks run both ways, and $60 is the gravitational center.

The forecast: sell rallies, $60 the magnet, geopolitics the only upside

Put it together and oil's stance is bearish with a controlled decline toward $60 the base case. WTI at $68.50 and Brent at $72 sit at 4-month lows, having round-tripped the entire conflict spike from $114-plus back to pre-war levels as the geopolitical premium evaporated. The bearish forces are stacked and current: OPEC+ added another 188,000 bpd for August, the Strait of Hormuz is reopening with flows back above 10 million bpd, Saudi Arabia cut its Asia selling price to a $1.50 discount, Gulf producers are restoring exports toward pre-war levels, and US-Iran talks are progressing. Underneath the fading premium sits the structural glut — record US shale near 13.6 million bpd, OPEC+ unwinding its cuts, and demand the EIA sees falling in 2026 — the same oversupply that had Brent near $62 before the war. The technicals confirm it with a strong-sell reading, and the banks agree: JPMorgan sees Brent at $60 for 2026 with a $30s tail risk if OPEC+ mismanages the surplus, Goldman below $76. The levels are clean. WTI support sits at $66, then the $64 pivot, then $60; resistance at $70 and $72. Brent support at $70, then $66, then $60-$64 and the 52-week low near $58.72; resistance at $72 and $76. The structural floor — 2.5 million bpd of OPEC spare capacity and the 900 million barrel stock deficit from the conflict — cushions the decline and argues for a controlled drift toward $60 rather than the $30s tail, absent an OPEC+ policy failure. The only real upside is geopolitical: a Hormuz re-closure, an Iran-talks collapse, or a Venezuela disruption could re-inject a premium and spike prices $20-plus overnight, which is why oil is never a clean short. The verdict into the week: sell rallies toward the fundamentals, target the $60-$64 zone as the glut builds, respect $66 WTI and $70 Brent as near-term support, and keep one eye on the Middle East for the geopolitical wildcard that could flip the trade. Bearish base case on the supply flood and soft demand, with a structural floor near $60 and a geopolitical tail that runs both ways. The war premium is gone, the glut is back, and $60 is the magnet. Sell the bounces, watch the Strait, and let the oversupply lead.

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