USD/JPY Price Forecast - USDJPY=X Near 156 as BoJ Caution and US “Exchange Review” Fuel Fresh Yen Selling

USD/JPY Price: Bulls Reclaim Control Above 155

USD/JPY is trading around 155.70 after tagging an intraday high near 156.28, up roughly 0.6% on the day. Price is back above the 100-day simple moving average around 155.10 and pressing against the 50-day line near 156.00, which is acting as the first ceiling. The broader picture is a recovery from the recent low at 152.27 on 12 February, rebuilding a bullish structure as long as the market holds above the mid-155 area and keeps momentum pointed higher.

Macro backdrop: BoJ caution, politics and compressed hike odds

The latest leg higher in USD/JPY is driven more by Tokyo than by Washington. Reports that the prime minister has pushed the Bank of Japan to slow the pace of future rate increases signal clear political resistance to rapid normalization. After core inflation in Japan dropped to its weakest level in two years, pricing for a quarter-point BoJ hike at the March meeting collapsed from around 10% to 3%. Expectations for a similar move in April fell from about 50% to 30%, even though some surveys still see policy rates drifting toward 1% by September. That mix tells you the market believes normalization is coming, but not fast enough to close the gap with US yields. The result is renewed pressure on the yen and support for USD/JPY on dips.

Washington’s “exchange-rate review” and the intervention overhang

Behind the scenes, US authorities have already been testing the plumbing in dollar/yen. Exchange-rate reviews were reportedly conducted by the New York branch of the US central bank on behalf of the Treasury without any formal request from Japan. The logic is straightforward: if volatility around Japanese elections or global shocks starts to destabilize markets, the US wants to be ready to act. Officials close to the process have framed this as a potential first step toward direct yen-support operations if Tokyo asks for help. That creates a two-sided risk for USD/JPY. On the one hand, it signals Washington is not alarmed by current levels and might tolerate a weaker yen as long as moves are orderly. On the other, the probability of a coordinated dollar-selling, yen-buying operation rises sharply if the pair sprints too far beyond recent highs. For now the market is content to push higher while keeping one eye on the possibility of a sudden, intervention-driven reversal.

Technical map for USD/JPY: key levels from 152.27 to 157.50

On the daily chart, USD/JPY has shifted from a corrective bias to a constructive uptrend. Price reclaimed the 100-day SMA near 155.10 and is testing the 50-day SMA around 156.00. A clean, sustained break above that band would expose the 157.00–157.50 region, where recent swing highs have capped every attempt to extend. Momentum has turned back in favor of the upside: the relative strength index has recovered toward 53 after flirting with oversold conditions earlier in February, confirming that downside pressure has eased and buyers are gradually regaining control rather than chasing a late spike. Volatility remains elevated but contained, with the average true range sitting near 1.30, implying daily ranges of roughly ¥1.3. That favors grinding trend extension rather than chaotic whipsaws, provided support zones continue to hold.

Support and resistance: where the market will defend and where it will dump

Immediate support is clustered around the moving averages. The first line sits at the 100-day SMA near 155.10. Just below, intraday levels around 155.00, 154.84 and 154.45 form a dense short-term demand band. A decisive break through that area would shift focus toward the 154.00 region, the top of the previous consolidation, and then down to 152.00–152.27, the February low and the point where the last selloff finally exhausted. That 152 zone is now the line in the sand for the medium-term bullish view: a sustained daily close below would invalidate the current uptrend and reopen a deeper correction. On the upside, 156.00, where the 50-day SMA currently sits, is the first resistance. Above that, 156.20–156.30 aligns with prior intraday highs and marks the next hurdle. Clearing that pocket opens a path toward 157.00–157.50, the recent top of the range. A break and weekly close above 157.50 would be the trigger that invites a move toward the psychologically important 160.00 handle over coming weeks.

USD/JPY inside the broader dollar story: triangles, yields and cross-rates

The pair is not moving in isolation. The broad dollar index has been consolidating in an ascending triangle, holding support around the 97.33–97.46 band while repeatedly testing resistance above. That pattern is classic for an underlying bid that is waiting for a catalyst to break out. In that setup, USD/JPY remains the primary pressure point because other major pairs, like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, are sitting closer to key supports and building falling-wedge structures that could flip higher if the dollar fails to punch through resistance. Put differently, if the dollar stalls, the first place where that failure will show up is in USD/JPY losing altitude back below 155. If the index finally breaks higher instead, the configuration of support and momentum in USD/JPY argues it will be one of the main beneficiaries, not a laggard.

BoJ versus Fed: yield gap still favors a strong USD/JPY

Rate differentials remain the core driver. Japanese overnight rates are still pinned near zero, and the path to 1% by late 2026 is shallow and uncertain. After the latest inflation data, the market is only pricing around 15 basis points of hikes for April, and even that is now vulnerable to being scaled back as political pressure builds on the central bank to avoid tightening too quickly. By contrast, US rates remain far above Japanese levels, and recent economic data have not forced an immediate shift to aggressive easing. That gap keeps the carry argument alive: holding long USD/JPY positions still pays a positive yield, and the drawdown from any BoJ hike is limited as long as the Fed does not pivot abruptly. The message from current pricing is clear: unless Japanese policymakers surprise with a faster path toward higher rates, the structural bias remains for a weaker yen.

Risk sentiment, tariffs and geopolitical stress: how they bleed into USD/JPY

Macro risks are not neutral for this pair. Debates about new tariffs, legal decisions that reshape trade policy and the possibility of escalation in the Middle East all filter into USD/JPY through risk appetite, inflation expectations and energy prices. A sharp spike in oil on the back of a closure threat in key shipping routes would initially lift the dollar on safe-haven demand and higher US yield expectations, while also pressuring Japan through its energy import bill. That combination tends to push USD/JPY higher, not lower. At the same time, if stress escalates to the point where global equity markets crack, forced deleveraging in carry trades can generate abrupt yen strength as positions are unwound. The current pricing around 155–156 reflects a compromise: markets see political and geopolitical noise, but not yet a shock big enough to override the carry and policy differentials that keep yen under pressure.

Cross-asset context: gold, crypto and industrial metals as secondary signals

Gold recently broke out of a multi-week consolidation and is now oscillating around the 5,100 area after defending 5,000 and 4,856 on prior pullbacks. That pattern tells you that demand for hedges remains firm even as the dollar holds up, reinforcing the idea that markets are nervous but not panicked. In digital assets, one of the major alt-coins has dropped about 63% from its record high at 3.66 to trade around 1.35–1.40, with weekly inflows falling from 33 million dollars to 3.5 million while open interest in derivatives still climbed to 2.4 billion. That combination of shrinking spot inflows and growing leverage is a textbook sign of fragile risk appetite, which can amplify volatility in high-beta assets but often leaves major FX pairs like USD/JPY trading more on rates than on pure sentiment. Industrial metals add a different angle: nickel has rebounded toward 17,300 dollars per ton after Indonesia moved to cut production quotas, reversing part of the oversupply that had crushed prices and forced high-cost producers to close. Supply-driven stabilization in metals supports the narrative of an uneven but ongoing global cycle rather than an imminent recession. For USD/JPY, that means the environment still favors yield-seeking flows rather than a rush into defensive currencies.

Short-term playbook: levels that matter for desks watching USD/JPY

Near term, the market is treating any dip toward the 155.10–155.30 region as an opportunity to re-enter the trend. As long as closes stay above that zone, the bias remains for tests of 156.00 and then 156.20–156.30. A daily close above the 50-day SMA with follow-through toward 157.00 would confirm that buyers have absorbed supply at the moving-average cluster and are ready to challenge the 157.50 cap. If instead price slips back below 155.10, focus shifts quickly to 154.50–154.00. That band is crucial: holding there keeps the pattern as a normal pullback within an uptrend; losing it would signal that the recovery from 152.27 is fading and that the market is preparing another leg lower. Only a break of 152.00–152.27 would flip the broader narrative and put a deeper correction toward 150 on the table.

Verdict on USD/JPY: stance, bias and clear line in the sand

Given policy dynamics, rate differentials and the current technical structure, the bias on USD/JPY is bullish, not neutral. The configuration of moving averages, the recovery in RSI above 50 and the elevated but controlled ATR all point to a market that prefers to buy weakness above 154–155 and aim for 157–157.50 as the next major area. The setup favors a Buy stance with an upside roadmap toward that 157–157.50 band and, if BoJ hike expectations are pushed back further, a possible extension toward 160 over time. The clear invalidation point for that view is a sustained break below 152.00–152.27, which would signal that policy expectations, intervention risk or a global shock have finally given the yen enough support to reverse the trend. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in USD/JPY remains higher.

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