XRP ETF Boom: XRPI at $10.94 and XRPR at $15.49 as XRP-USD Clings to the $1.80–$1.90 Zone

XRPI AND XRPR: ETF FLOWS BUILD A NEW INSTITUTIONAL FLOOR UNDER XRP

XRPI AND XRPR PRICE SNAPSHOT: DISCOUNTED ENTRY TO THE XRP TRADE

XRPI ETF is trading around $10.94, up 4.79% on the day, versus a previous close at $10.44. Intraday, XRPI has moved in a $10.81–$11.05 band, barely above its year low at $10.44 and far below the $23.53 year high, with average volume near 561.8K shares. That means XRPI is trading at less than half of its 12-month peak while XRP-USD itself holds near $1.87–$1.89, after a session range of roughly $1.77–$1.93 and a market cap close to $113B. In parallel, XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF) changes hands around $15.49, up 4.73% versus a previous close at $14.79, with today’s range at $15.33–$15.49 and a year range of $14.79–$25.99 on thin average volume of about 40.4K shares. The message is simple: spot XRP-USD sits just under the key $2.00 pivot, while XRPI and XRPR are priced as if the last leg of the bull move never happened, leaving a wide gap between current ETF quotes and the token’s July $3.66 peak and August $3.27 high.

XRP-USD STRUCTURE: FROM BROKEN $2.00 FLOOR TO DEEP FIBONACCI CORRECTION

On the underlying tape, XRP-USD has already transitioned from a clean bull leg into a mature correction. The 2024 low sits near $0.43, the 2025 high topped around $3.66, and price now trades near $1.87–$1.92, well below the midpoint of that move. Using the $0.43–$3.66 leg, the 61.8% retracement sits near $1.63, while the 78.6% zone clusters around $1.83. The market has already tested the $1.77–$1.83 pocket intraday, and is pivoting around the $1.85–$1.95 demand band. For most of 2025, $2.00 acted as a reliable floor; dips under that handle were usually reversed in one or two candles. Now the behavior is different: $2.00 has flipped from a support shelf into a broken neckline. The current trading corridor is compressed between $1.75–$1.80 on the downside and $1.90–$2.00 above, with $1.92 highlighted as a critical short-term support and $1.75 flagged as the next line before any slide toward $1.50 or the $1.63 Fibonacci target.

MACRO BACKDROP: CPI “RELIEF”, BOJ HIKE AND A ROTATION BACK TO BITCOIN

Price action in XRP-USD, XRPI and XRPR is being dictated more by macro than by Ripple-specific news. Headline US CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, versus expectations near 3.1%, delivered a relief bounce in risk assets but not a lasting melt-up. Fed futures now imply about 27% odds of a January cut and roughly 57% odds for March, which is a mild repricing, not a full regime shift. New York Fed President John Williams underlined that there is “no urgency” for another cut after last week’s move, which keeps the liquidity outlook constrained. At the same time, the Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to around 0.75%, a three-decade high, pushing the JPY carry trade back to center stage. Higher Japanese yields and tighter global rate differentials make leveraged risk less attractive; funding trades in crypto become more expensive, and high-beta altcoins like XRP-USD are typically trimmed first. While gold trades near record territory above $4,300–$4,350 and still attracts classic “safety” flows, crypto is trading like a high-beta equity proxy, not like a macro hedge. That is visible in the flow split: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recently took in around $457M in a single session, while XRP-USD 24-hour volume slipped by about 7% into the $3.5–$4.4B zone, and market dominance fell toward 3.87%, a fresh 90-day low. The macro tape is therefore risk-off for altcoins and risk-selective for BTC.

XRP-USD TECHNICALS: BEARISH MOVING AVERAGES, OVERSOLD OSCILLATORS, BINARY PATTERN SETUP

Trend proxies confirm that XRP-USD is in a correction, even as short-term oscillators signal exhaustion. On the daily chart, the 10-day EMA near $1.96 now acts as dynamic resistance. The 30-day SMA around $2.06 reinforces the idea that short-term control sits with sellers, while the 200-day SMA near $2.59 highlights a still-weak longer-term structure. The 14-day RSI hovers around 37–38, indicating a bearish bias but not yet a full flush. The MACD line remains below zero and below its signal line, with the histogram negative, flagging active downside pressure. ADX around 21 confirms that this is a real, albeit moderate, trend rather than random noise. At the same time, a Stochastic %K in the mid-teens and CCI near -150 show an extended selloff that is ripe for countertrend bounces. Two conflicting pattern narratives define the next big move. The bearish one treats the $3.66 and later peaks as a double top with a $2.00 neckline; a sustained break below $2.00 activates a textbook measured move toward the $1.00 region. The more constructive narrative focuses on behavior around the 50-week SMA. In 2018, 2021 and 2024, periods of 50–80 days spent below that weekly line preceded rebounds in the 70–850% range. The current stretch under the 50-week SMA is around 66 days; if history rhymes, an eventual upside leg from a low near $1.81–$1.83 could carry toward $9.50–$17.30 on a multi-year horizon. For now, the tape is stuck between these two regimes.

ETF INFLOWS: XRPI AND XRPR TURN XRP INTO AN INSTITUTIONAL PRODUCT

While price corrects, the product structure around XRP-USD is strengthening. US-listed spot XRP ETFs – including XRPI and XRPR, alongside other tickers – have already absorbed roughly $1.03–$1.14B in cumulative inflows since mid-November. One data set cites about $30M of net inflows on Thursday alone, with Grayscale’s GXRP taking in around $10M, 21Shares’ TOXR adding a similar $10M, and Franklin Templeton’s ZXRP contributing about $7M. Separate metrics highlight about $423.27M in spot XRP ETF inflows since November 14 and about 19–32 consecutive sessions of positive flows, depending on source and cutoff date. Even at $1.14B in ETF assets, the total still represents under 1% of XRP-USD’s $113B market cap. That means ETFs are not yet a dominant holder base but they are already a persistent bid under the market. The key point is that while XRP-USD has dropped roughly 22–45% from the year’s highs, institutional capital via XRPI, XRPR and peers is still adding exposure daily rather than redeeming.

RETAIL AND DERIVATIVES: FUTURES OPEN INTEREST STUCK AT HALF OF PRIOR PEAKS

ETF money is only one side of the ledger. On the speculative side, XRP derivatives show clear damage. Futures open interest stands around $3.21B, down from $3.31B a day earlier and $3.52B earlier in the week. Before the October 10 flash crash, open interest sat at $8.36B and peaked near $10.94B on July 22. The deleveraging has therefore cut the futures book by more than 60% from its highs. Since October, OI has chopped in a $3–4B channel, well below the levels associated with prior blow-off phases. This confirms that retail and leveraged traders have not returned. The combination is clear: XRPI and XRPR channel steady, unlevered institutional demand, while the speculative crowd is still under-positioned. That explains the current microstructure: XRP-USD can spike quickly off intraday lows like $1.77, but breakouts above $1.90–$2.00 fade because there is not enough speculative fuel behind the move.

FLOW AND SENTIMENT SPLIT: XRP VS BITCOIN, XRP VS OTHER ALTCOINS

Cross-asset flows show XRP-USD losing share even as spot ETF plumbing improves. XRP is up roughly 417% since 2022 yet is down about 22.8% since January 1, 2025, while spot Bitcoin trades near $88,000 with choppy but still positive ETF flows, and Ethereum ETFs face net outflows. Recently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $457.3M of inflows in one day, partially offsetting $634.8M of outflows over the prior two sessions. Over the same horizon, spot XRP ETFs added only tens of millions per day, and XRP-USD volume contracted. Traditional investors are starting to diversify into Solana and XRP ETFs, as seen in roughly $102.8M of net inflows into Solana products over nine days, but the dominant narrative remains a BTC-led cycle with selective altcoin participation. In that context, XRPI and XRPR are being used more as precise tactical instruments for XRP exposure than as mass-market beta. The sentiment overlay is cautious: analysts talk about repeated “bull traps” in altcoins, where spikes are sold quickly, and about heavy overhead supply between $2.00–$2.50 in XRP-USD from prior bag holders eager to exit.

CRITICAL LEVELS FOR XRP-USD AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR XRPI AND XRPR

The ETF tape cannot be decoupled from the underlying XRP-USD levels. On the downside, the immediate battle zone is $1.85–$1.90, where buyers stepped in repeatedly and where $1.88–$1.95 has been identified as a 4-hour demand band. Just below, the $1.83 pocket aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci of the full bull leg and is effectively the last nearby support before a drop toward $1.75, $1.63, and potentially $1.00 if the double-top interpretation plays out fully. On the upside, the pivot stack is tight: $1.96 (10-day EMA), $2.00 (broken psychological floor), $2.15 (50-day EMA), $2.34 (100-day EMA), and $2.42 (200-day EMA). Reclaiming and holding $2.00 is the first non-negotiable step. Clearing $2.15–$2.42 would mark a genuine trend repair and open the way to $2.50–$2.60, where the last distribution zone sits. Because XRPI and XRPR embed management fees and structural tracking costs, they will typically underperform on the way up versus the raw token, but they translate these same levels into ETF prices: XRPI’s current $10.94 is a heavily discounted derivative of an underlying that has already fallen below its primary pivot. If XRP-USD returns even to $2.50–$3.00, XRPI and XRPR have room to move well above the low-teens and high-teens bands without needing a new all-time high in the token.

FUNDAMENTAL ADOPTION AND POLICY: WHY XRP’S “FINANCIALIZATION” MATTERS FOR THE ETS

On the structural side, the regulatory and corporate backdrop keeps improving even while the token corrects. Conditional approval of a national trust-bank style charter for Ripple under the OCC framework, together with crypto custody guidance for broker-dealers, pushes XRP-linked products further into regulated finance. At the same time, initiatives like a $300M equity-acquisition vehicle targeted at Ripple Labs for South Korean investors, backed by about 450M XRP exposure estimated around $900M, reinforce the idea that XRP is migrating into treasuries, structured products and balance-sheet strategies rather than staying a purely retail trade. ETF issuers such as Canary Capital, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton collectively manage around $1.14B in XRP ETF assets. That is still a small slice of total supply but it is already enough to generate a permanent bid and a durable wrapper for institutions who cannot hold tokens directly. For XRPI and XRPR, this architecture is the entire investment case: the funds are the bridge between a volatile, macro-sensitive token and the mandates of traditional allocators who want exposure without wallets or on-chain complexity.

RISK MATRIX: DOWNSIDE TO $1.63–$1.00 VS UPSIDE TO $2.60–$9.50 AND BEYOND

The medium-term risk distribution for XRP-USD, and therefore for XRPI and XRPR, is asymmetric but wide. From current spot levels near $1.87–$1.89, a retest of $1.83 implies only 3–4% further downside, a slide to $1.63 implies around 14% loss, and a full double-top move to $1.00 would cut value by roughly 47–50%. On the upside, a return to the $2.20–$2.30 resistance band offers about 16–21% upside, $2.60 suggests around 37% gains, and a revisit of $3.30–$3.66 would deliver 70–95% upside from here. Longer-dated directional targets published by various analysts cluster around $5.05 for late 2025, $6–6.50 if XRP’s market cap moves closer to Ethereum’s territory, ~$26.50 by 2030 under aggressive adoption assumptions, and a very wide $97.50–$179 corridor by 2040 if XRP becomes a core global payments rail. Those numbers are scenario endpoints, not base cases. The present fact pattern is more modest: the token trades below half of its 2025 peak, tests $1.83–$1.92 support, and still risks a trip to $1.63 if macro stress intensifies or ETF inflows slow.

RATING XRPI AND XRPR: HIGH-RISK BUY ON STRUCTURE, TACTICAL HOLD ON TIMING

Putting it all together for XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF: price has already absorbed a large correction from the $3.27–$3.66 XRP-USD highs; macro headwinds from CPI, Fed caution and the BoJ hike are real; retail leverage is still depressed with open interest stuck near $3.21B; yet spot XRP ETFs have pulled in over $1B of assets with no sustained outflow streak and XRPI and XRPR both trade close to their 12-month lows. For short-term traders focused on weeks rather than years, XRP-USD below a broken $2.00 neckline and under a downward-sloping $2.15–$2.42 moving-average stack argues for a tactical Hold in XRPI and XRPR until spot at least reclaims the $1.96–$2.00 band and then prints above $2.27. For multi-year, high-risk capital that can tolerate a drawdown toward $1.63 or even a washout closer to $1.00, the combination of deep correction, more than $1B in ETF inflows, advancing regulatory infrastructure and historically explosive rebounds after 50-week SMA breaches makes XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF a high-risk Buy in the current $10–11 and $15–16 zones, respectively, with position sizes calibrated to the very real downside that the current macro and technical tape still puts on the table.

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