XRP ETF Forecast — XRPI at $7.70 and XRPR at $11.09: $1.24 Billion Poured In While Ethereum ETFs Lost $3.3 Billion

XRP ETF Forecast — XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) at $7.70 and XRPR (BATS:XRPR) at $11.09: $1.24 Billion Poured Into XRP Funds While Ethereum ETFs Lost $3.3 Billion, 40+ Consecutive Inflow Days Made These the Fastest-Growing Crypto ETFs on Earth, Spot Volume Surged 212%, and Iran Strikes Create the Shakeout That Separates Conviction From Panic

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | TradingNews.com

The numbers coming out of the XRP exchange-traded fund complex are unlike anything the altcoin ETF market has produced. XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) closed Friday at $7.70, down $0.22 or 2.78%, with a day range of $7.61 to $7.82 and a 52-week range that spans $6.50 to $23.53. XRPR (BATS:XRPR), the REX Osprey XRP ETF, settled at $11.09, off $0.35 or 3.06%, with a 52-week range of $9.50 to $25.99 and average daily volume of 26,380 shares. Both funds sit approximately 67% below their 52-week highs — a decline that mirrors the 67% drawdown in XRP-USD from its all-time high of $3.92. But underneath that price destruction lies a flow picture that is the exact opposite of what the charts suggest: cumulative net inflows across all spot XRP ETFs have reached $1.24 billion, with total assets under management crossing $1 billion, and the category recorded more than 40 consecutive days of positive net inflows to start 2026 — a streak that no other crypto ETF category, including Bitcoin, came close to matching.

$1.24 Billion in Cumulative Inflows — XRP ETFs Are Absorbing Capital That Bitcoin and Ethereum Funds Are Hemorrhaging

The divergence between XRP ETF flows and the rest of the crypto ETF universe is the single most important data point in digital asset markets right now. Since launching in late 2025, spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.24 billion in cumulative net inflows. The AUM across the group — featuring issuers including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Canary — has held steady between $983 million and $1.06 billion even as XRP-USD declined 31% over the past 30 days. The Canary fund (XRPC) alone has raised $357 million in assets, making it the single largest XRP ETF by inflow volume.

Compare that to what is happening everywhere else. Ethereum ETFs have shed $3.3 billion since October 2025, with $1.13 billion exiting in just the last five weeks. Friday alone saw $43 million flow out of ETH funds — entirely from BlackRock's ETHA — while no other Ethereum fund reported any trading activity at all. Bitcoin ETFs posted a $27.55 million net outflow on Friday, breaking a three-day inflow streak, driven by a $32.71 million exit from BlackRock's IBIT. The XRP ETF complex, by contrast, recorded $2.21 million in positive net inflows on Friday led by Franklin's XRPZ — modest in absolute terms but remarkable in context. While the two largest crypto ETF categories bled capital, XRP funds continued to accumulate. That pattern has now persisted for more than 40 consecutive inflow days, a run of consistency that neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum ETFs achieved even during their strongest accumulation phases.

XRP has captured approximately 50% of all new capital flowing into altcoin ETFs in 2026. Half of every institutional dollar allocated to non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum crypto exposure is going into XRP funds. The remaining half splits between Solana ETFs ($753.16 million in net assets, with $1.31 million in Friday inflows through Bitwise's BSOL), Litecoin, Chainlink, Hedera, and Dogecoin funds that have collectively raised in excess of $133 million. The concentration of institutional flow into XRP tells a story about where smart money sees the best risk-adjusted opportunity in the altcoin space — and it is not Ethereum.

XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) at $7.70 — 67% Below the High, But the Flow Structure Says Accumulation, Not Distribution

XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) at $7.70 carries the highest volume among XRP ETFs with 535,710 shares traded daily on average. The fund tracks spot XRP and provides regulated exposure through a Nasdaq-listed vehicle. The 52-week range of $6.50 to $23.53 means the ETF has experienced a 67% peak-to-trough decline — gut-wrenching for anyone who bought near the top, but the flow data tells a fundamentally different story from the price chart. Capital has not left XRPI during the drawdown. It has continued entering. The $6.50 low sits just $1.20 below Friday's close, representing approximately 15.6% of additional downside to the 52-week floor. If Iran strikes push XRP-USD below the $1.13 support level that marks the last structural floor before a deeper correction, XRPI would likely test that $6.50 zone — and the institutional flow pattern suggests that level would attract aggressive accumulation rather than panic liquidation.

XRPR (BATS:XRPR) — REX Osprey's Alternative at $11.09, Lower Volume but Wider Range

XRPR (BATS:XRPR), the REX Osprey XRP ETF, closed at $11.09 with average daily volume of 26,380 shares — a fraction of XRPI's liquidity. The 52-week range of $9.50 to $25.99 shows a similar 57% drawdown from peak. The lower volume creates wider bid-ask spreads and higher execution costs for larger positions, making XRPR more suitable for smaller allocations or tactical trades rather than core institutional positioning. The $9.50 52-week low represents 14.3% downside from Friday's close — comparable to XRPI's risk profile at the floor — and the same institutional flow dynamics that support XRPI would apply to XRPR at its respective support level.

Spot Volume Surged 212% on Bitrue — Institutional and Retail Appetite Converging on XRP-USD

The ETF flow story is reinforced by what is happening on spot exchanges. Singapore-based Bitrue recorded a 212% increase in XRP spot purchase volume between February 23 and 24. Retail buy orders outpaced sell orders by more than two to one during that window. The surge coincided with what Bitrue described as ongoing accumulation by institutional participants that has persisted since the launch of XRP ETFs in late 2025.

The 212% volume spike occurred before Saturday's Iran strikes — meaning the buying intensity reflected genuine demand based on XRP's fundamental positioning and ETF flow momentum, not a speculative reaction to geopolitical headlines. Spot buying creates real demand pressure on the order book because it removes tokens from circulating supply, unlike derivatives trading that amplifies moves without changing the underlying supply-demand balance. When spot purchase volume doubles and then some while the ETF complex simultaneously records $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows, the supply-demand dynamics are being compressed from both sides: institutional buyers through regulated ETFs and spot buyers through exchanges.

7.6 Million Holders Globally — Long-Term Positions Growing While Short-Term Speculators Exit

XRP now has 7.6 million holders worldwide. On-chain metrics reveal a clear bifurcation in behavior: long-term holders have increased positions during the bearish correction while short-term speculators have largely exited. Perpetual futures leverage remains balanced, reducing the liquidation cascades that amplify downside moves during sharp swings. The taker buy-sell ratio has consistently held above the neutral 1.0 level, with readings between 1.05 and 1.12 over the past week — meaning buy market orders have persistently outpaced sell market orders.

Whale wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have been net accumulators during the recent pullback. Smaller retail wallets remain largely neutral. The pattern is characteristic of early-stage base formation: large holders absorb supply during periods of depressed prices and compressed volatility, building positions before a trend reversal that retail typically chases after the move has already begun. The absence of significant whale outflows confirms that selling pressure is structurally limited from the largest and most informed participants.

Holders are also increasingly moving tokens off exchanges and into self-custody solutions, a behavioral shift that tightens circulating supply on trading platforms. When coins leave exchanges, they are removed from the immediately available sell-side order book, reducing the supply that could be dumped during panic events. The self-custody trend, combined with ETF-driven absorption and the 212% spot volume surge, creates a three-pronged supply squeeze that will manifest in price once selling pressure from the Iran-driven risk-off event exhausts itself.

XRP Ledger Security Fix — A Critical Flaw Patched Before Exploitation

The XRP Ledger Foundation disclosed and fixed a serious vulnerability in the signature-validation logic of the XRP Ledger that, if exploited, could have enabled unauthorized transactions from victim accounts. No funds were compromised. The patch was deployed before any malicious exploitation occurred, and the fix reinforces the network's security infrastructure at a time when the Ledger processes between 2.1 million and 2.8 million transactions per day.

The significance of the fix extends beyond the immediate security implications. A successful exploit of the XRP Ledger's signature validation would have been catastrophic for institutional confidence in the network — and by extension, for the $1.24 billion in ETF inflows that depend on the network's integrity. The fact that the vulnerability was identified, patched, and disclosed without incident demonstrates the maturity of the XRPL's security governance and reinforces the case for institutional capital to continue flowing into XRP-linked products.

Ripple Boosts XRPL Funding — DeFi, Asset Tokenization, Payments, and Infrastructure

Ripple has announced plans to increase funding for XRP Ledger (XRPL) development, focusing on four priority areas: decentralized finance, asset tokenization, payments infrastructure, and core protocol upgrades. The funding initiative targets real-world adoption and utility enhancement — the same metrics that institutional allocators evaluate when determining which crypto assets merit long-term portfolio exposure.

Through Flare Networks, XRP holders can now access cross-chain yield via FXRP. Multi-strategy vaults combine lending, decentralized exchange liquidity provision, and staking into a single deposit structure. This DeFi expansion transforms XRP from a pure payments token into an income-generating asset, broadening its appeal to yield-seeking institutional capital. The integration with cross-chain infrastructure also positions XRP to capture flows from the broader $45 billion meme economy and the growing real-world asset tokenization market — segments where Ripple's regulatory relationships and banking partnerships provide competitive advantages that purely decentralized protocols cannot replicate.

XRP Captures 50% of All Altcoin ETF Capital — The Institutional Rotation Is Not Subtle

The altcoin ETF landscape in 2026 has produced a clear hierarchy, and XRP sits at the top. Approximately 50% of all new capital entering altcoin ETFs is flowing into XRP funds. Solana ETFs have attracted over $618 million in net inflows with seven funds now controlling more than 1.15% of SOL's market capitalization. The XRP ETF group — led by Canary at $357 million, with Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise also contributing — has surpassed the Solana complex in cumulative inflows and AUM.

Beyond XRP and SOL, the broader altcoin ETF ecosystem includes funds focused on Litecoin, Chainlink, Hedera, and Dogecoin that have collectively raised over $133 million. The total altcoin ETF market is now a multi-billion dollar category that did not exist 18 months ago. Bitcoin dominance has dropped from 63.34% to 59.2% — one of the steepest weekly declines in the past year — and historical patterns suggest a sustained move below 55% triggers the kind of altcoin capital explosion that pushed the total altcoin market cap from $1 trillion to $2 trillion in the 2020–2021 cycle. The current altcoin market cap stands at approximately $1.5 trillion, and breaking past the previous cycle's high would require precisely the kind of institutional ETF-driven capital that is already flowing at record rates.

Iran Strikes and the Monday Gap — XRP's Geopolitical Risk Profile

Saturday's U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliation add a layer of geopolitical tail risk that will gap every crypto asset lower when markets reopen Monday. XRP-USD crashed 10% on the initial headlines, falling from $1.42 to $1.30 intraday, with $100 million in long positions liquidated across the crypto market within 15 minutes. The clean break below $1.36 support triggered cascading stop-losses, and volume during the main selling wave surged 170% above the 30-day average.

For the XRP ETF complex, Monday's open will be ugly. XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) at $7.70 could gap toward $7.00–$7.20 if XRP-USD retests the $1.20–$1.22 zone. XRPR (BATS:XRPR) at $11.09 could see $10.00–$10.50. The Iran-driven selloff is a forced liquidation event — the same kind of volume spike and cascade that has produced every major bottom in XRP's recent history. The question is not whether the ETF prices fall Monday; they will. The question is whether the $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows and the 40+ consecutive inflow days represent a structural demand floor that absorbs the selling — and every piece of evidence, from the 212% spot volume surge to the whale accumulation to the 7.6 million holder count to the self-custody migration, says yes.

Friday's Session — XRP ETFs Added $2.21 Million While Bitcoin Lost $27.55 Million and Ethereum Lost $43 Million

Friday's ETF flow data crystalizes the rotation. Bitcoin ETFs: $27.55 million net outflow, led by $32.71 million from BlackRock's IBIT, with $2.57 billion in total trading volume and net assets at $83.40 billion. Ethereum ETFs: $43 million net outflow entirely from BlackRock's ETHA, with $679.61 million in volume and net assets at $10.96 billion. XRP ETFs: $2.21 million net inflow, led by Franklin's XRPZ, with $12.42 million in volume and net assets at $983.18 million. Solana ETFs: $1.31 million net inflow through Bitwise's BSOL, with $25.70 million in volume and net assets at $753.16 million.

The session summary: the two largest crypto ETF categories bled a combined $70.55 million while XRP and Solana funds continued accumulating. This is not a one-day anomaly. It is the continuation of a multi-month pattern where institutional capital is actively reallocating from BTC and ETH into altcoin exposure — and XRP is the primary beneficiary. The $43 million Ethereum outflow on Friday alone was nearly 20 times the $2.21 million XRP inflow, but the directional signal matters more than the magnitude: money is leaving ETH and entering XRP. That flow, sustained over months, is what produces the supply-demand compression that precedes major re-pricings.

The Verdict — XRP ETF / XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) / XRPR (BATS:XRPR): Buy the Iran Dip, Target $1.67 XRP, and Let the $1.24 Billion in Institutional Conviction Do the Heavy Lifting

XRP ETFs are a buy on weakness Monday. XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) target: $11.50–$12.00 (50–56% upside from $7.70), corresponding to XRP-USD at $1.67. XRPR (BATS:XRPR) target: $16.50–$17.00 (49–53% upside from $11.09). Stop: weekly close below $6.00 XRPI / $8.50 XRPR / $1.13 XRP-USD.

The case for buying is built on flow data that is historically unprecedented for an altcoin ETF. $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows with over 40 consecutive positive days — a streak that Bitcoin and Ethereum never achieved. XRP captures 50% of all altcoin ETF capital. Friday's session saw XRP funds add $2.21 million while BTC lost $27.55 million and ETH lost $43 million. Ethereum ETFs have hemorrhaged $3.3 billion since October while XRP ETFs have gained $1.24 billion over the same period — a $4.54 billion institutional preference swing toward XRP and away from ETH. Spot volume surged 212% on Bitrue with buy orders outpacing sells 2:1. Whale wallets 10–100 million XRP are accumulating. Taker buy-sell ratio at 1.05–1.12. Self-custody migration tightening exchange supply. 7.6 million holders globally with long-term positions growing. XRPL security vulnerability patched before exploitation. Ripple increasing funding for DeFi, tokenization, payments. Bitcoin dominance dropped from 63.34% to 59.2% — approaching the 55% threshold that historically triggers altcoin capital explosions.

The bear case is the same as the broader crypto market: Iran strikes creating acute risk-off positioning, Bitcoin down 48% from ATH dragging all digital assets lower, Fear and Greed at 11, core PPI at 3.6% complicating Fed easing, and XRP-USD trading below its 200-week EMA at $1.41 with the $1.13 swing low as the last structural support before $0.85–$0.95. If $1.13 breaks on a weekly close, the entire cup-and-handle technical pattern that targets $1.67 is invalidated and the thesis requires a full reset.

The asymmetry overwhelmingly favors buying. From XRPI at $7.70 (likely to gap lower Monday toward $7.00–$7.20), downside to the $6.50 52-week low is $0.50–$0.70 or 7–10%. Upside to the $11.50–$12.00 target is $4.30–$4.80 or 60–67%. That is a 6:1 reward-to-risk ratio at the gap level, improving to nearly 9:1 if the Monday selloff pushes XRPI to $6.80. The $1.24 billion in institutional capital that flowed into XRP ETFs did not enter to be liquidated at a 67% loss. It entered with multi-quarter and multi-year time horizons, with mandated rebalancing rules and fiduciary frameworks that prevent panic selling during geopolitical events. That capital is the floor. The Iran strikes create the entry price. Buy the Monday gap, size for volatility, and let the most aggressive institutional accumulation in altcoin ETF history carry the position back toward fair value.

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