XRP ETF Forecast: XRPI at $7.70, XRPR at $11.09 — $1.24 Billion in Cumulative Inflows, 50% Share of Altcoin ETF Capital

XRP ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) Drops to $7.70 After 67% Collapse From $23.53 — But $1.24 Billion in Cumulative Inflows, Outperformance Over Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on Red Days, and a 50% Share of All Altcoin ETF Capital Rotation Tell a Story the Price Hasn't Caught Up To

The XRP ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) closed Friday at $7.70, down 2.78% on the session with a day range of $7.61-$7.82 against a previous close of $7.92. The fund has collapsed 67.3% from its year-high of $23.53 and sits just 18.5% above the year-low of $6.50. The Bitwise XRP ETF (XRPR) tracked identically, closing at $7.70 on the same brutal Friday session. XRP-USD itself trades near $1.35, down roughly 3% on the day and 6% over the trailing 24 hours, having swung between $1.39 and $1.49 before the late-session Nvidia-led risk selloff dragged the entire crypto complex lower. And yet — the flow story is completely disconnected from the price story. Since the first U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in mid-November 2025, these products have accumulated $1.24 billion in cumulative net inflows with total assets under management at $1.06 billion. Canary Capital's XRP ETF (XRPC) leads with $280.38 million in net assets, narrowly edging out Bitwise's product at $278.22 million. XRP-linked funds now capture approximately 50% of all fresh capital entering altcoin ETFs — dwarfing Solana at 30% and Hedera at 20%. On some of the worst trading days of 2026, when Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged hundreds of millions, XRP funds still posted net inflows. That kind of institutional conviction during drawdowns is the single most reliable forward indicator in ETF markets, and it's pointing in the exact opposite direction from price.

XRP ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) Price Action — From $23.53 to $7.70 in Four Months

XRPI's 52-week range tells the entire story: $6.50 to $23.53. The fund launched in mid-November 2025 during a period of massive crypto optimism, quickly surging to its high as XRP-USD rallied from $0.48 in September 2024 to above $3.00 — a 500%+ move — and eventually peaking near $3.66 in July 2025. The ETF products captured that momentum. Then came the unwind. XRP entered a prolonged consolidation phase through late 2025, gradually declining to test support around $2.00 before collapsing further into early 2026, stabilizing near $1.44 before the current slide to $1.35.

XRPI at $7.70 reflects that entire journey in compressed form. The 67% drawdown from peak to current price mirrors the broader crypto bear market that has pushed Bitcoin to five consecutive red monthly candles and Solana down 73% from its September high. Average daily volume on XRPI sits at 535,710 shares — sufficient liquidity for position sizing but reflecting the reduced participation that accompanies multi-month drawdowns. The fund is not at risk of delisting or liquidity failure, but the volume contraction from the launch euphoria is unmistakable.

$1.24 Billion in Cumulative Inflows — XRP ETFs Capture 50% of All Altcoin ETF Capital

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg disclosed that XRP-linked ETFs now capture roughly 50% of all fresh capital entering the altcoin ETF space. Solana accounts for approximately 30% and Hedera takes the remaining 20%. That capital distribution is extraordinary for a product category that has only existed since November 2025. XRP ETFs surpassed $1 billion in cumulative AUM faster than virtually any crypto ETF category outside of Bitcoin.

The specifics are striking. From mid-November launch through January 7, 2026, the XRP ETF complex recorded consistent daily net inflows without a single negative day. The first outflow didn't arrive until January 7 — nearly two months of uninterrupted accumulation. Compare that with Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced five consecutive weeks of net outflows earlier in 2026 and have seen negative flow days on nine separate sessions this month alone. Ethereum ETFs have been even worse, shedding over $326 million in February and more than $2 billion in the past four months.

February 2026 has produced just three negative flow days for XRP ETFs. Three. In a month where Bitcoin lost $2.82 billion over two weeks and the broader crypto market posted its worst monthly performance since 2018. On Wednesday, February 26, XRP ETFs attracted $3.09 million in net inflows on a day when the broader crypto market was swinging violently on Nvidia earnings volatility. Even the weekly investment product flow comparison is lopsided: Bitcoin and Ethereum products recorded combined outflows of $250 million last week while XRP attracted a modest but positive $3.5 million inflow.

The competitive positioning among individual funds: Canary Capital's XRPC leads at $280.38 million in net assets, narrowly ahead of Bitwise's XRP ETF at $278.22 million. The tight race between these two products indicates that multiple issuers are attracting capital independently rather than one fund dominating — a sign of broad-based institutional demand rather than concentrated buying from a single source.

Why XRP ETF Flows Defy the Crypto Bear Market — SEC Resolution and Institutional Rotation

XRP's regulatory overhang has cleared. The SEC wrapped up its lawsuit against Ripple Labs last year, abandoning final appeals while keeping a $125 million penalty intact. The case — filed in 2020 — had been the single largest impediment to institutional XRP adoption for half a decade. Its resolution removed the legal uncertainty that had prevented major asset managers from offering XRP products and freed the token from the perpetual regulatory discount that had suppressed its relative valuation.

The timing of the ETF launches immediately following the SEC resolution was not coincidental. Asset managers including Canary Capital and Bitwise had been preparing filings, waiting for the legal clarity that would make approval viable. The result: XRP became the first altcoin (after Bitcoin and Ethereum) to receive spot ETF treatment in the United States, giving it a structural advantage in institutional capital allocation. The 50% share of altcoin ETF inflows reflects that first-mover positioning — XRP had the approved products and the regulatory clarity when institutional capital started rotating out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into higher-beta alternatives.

The rotation thesis is straightforward. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have matured. The massive one-directional inflows of 2024-2025 have given way to volatile, tactical positioning. Institutional allocators who already have established BTC and ETH positions are looking for the next layer of crypto exposure — and XRP, with its post-SEC clarity, established ETF infrastructure, and real-world payment utility through Ripple's cross-border settlement network, fills that role. The 50% capital share confirms XRP is winning the altcoin ETF rotation decisively.

XRP-USD at $1.35 — Futures OI at January 2025 Lows, $10.5 Billion Options Expiry Friday

XRP-USD trades near $1.35, down approximately 3% on the day and caught in the broader risk-off downdraft that hammered every major crypto asset on Friday. The token swung between $1.39 and $1.49 on Thursday before the late selloff pushed it to the lower end of its recent range. Open interest in XRP futures has dropped to its lowest level since January 2025, confirming that speculative positioning has been largely washed out. The leverage that amplified XRP's December 2024 and January 2025 rallies has evaporated, leaving the market dominated by spot holders and ETF flows rather than futures-driven momentum.

Friday's macro context added pressure. Roughly $10.5 billion in Bitcoin options expire today — an event that injects mechanical volatility across the entire crypto market as market makers unwind hedges and delta-neutral positions shift. XRP, with its high beta to Bitcoin, absorbs that volatility despite having no direct connection to the BTC options complex. The correlation is structural: when $10.5 billion in BTC options roll off and market makers adjust, the liquidity impact ripples through every alt including XRP.

The Nvidia earnings aftermath compounded the damage. Despite Nvidia projecting $78 billion in Q1 revenue and posting 75% GAAP margins, the stock fell 5.5% as the market questioned big-tech valuations. The risk-off tone that started in equities bled directly into crypto. Bitcoin lost 2.2%, Ethereum shed 3.7%, and XRP dropped approximately 6% in 24 hours. The late-session selloff erased an earlier 6.3% Wednesday gain, demonstrating the fragility of bounces in the current environment.

The $10 Target Claim — "No ETF Has Ever Pulled a 5x in Its First Year"

Crypto analyst Chad Steingraber made an audacious claim: XRP reaching $10 in 2026 would make the XRP ETF the best-performing fund in the first year of launch in Wall Street history. The math checks out directionally — XRPI launched near $7-8 when XRP was trading around $1.40-1.50. If XRP hit $10, the ETF would need to be roughly 7x its launch price, which would indeed be unprecedented for any first-year ETF performance.

The problem with the $10 target is the distance from current price. XRP at $1.35 would need to rally 640% to reach $10. Even the 500% surge from $0.48 to $3.00+ in September 2024 through early 2025 — one of the most explosive altcoin moves of the entire cycle — fell short of that magnitude when measured from the stabilization point. The move from $1.35 to $10 would require a fundamental re-rating that goes beyond anything the current market structure supports.

That said, the directional argument has merit: XRP is the dominant altcoin ETF product, institutional inflows are persistent, the regulatory overhang has cleared, and Ripple's cross-border payment infrastructure provides utility that most crypto tokens lack. A move to $3.00-$5.00 — which would put XRPI back toward $15-$20 — is plausible on a 12-month horizon if the crypto bear market reverses and institutional rotation into altcoin ETFs accelerates. $10 is aspirational. $3-$5 is achievable.

XRP's Price History — $0.48 to $3.66 to $1.35 in Eighteen Months

The chart reveals a classic boom-bust-consolidation cycle. XRP traded near $0.48 in September 2024 before surging above $3.00 — a 500%+ gain driven by the SEC case resolution momentum, ETF approval speculation, and broad crypto euphoria in late 2024. After sideways trading through much of 2025, XRP pushed to a cycle peak near $3.66 in July 2025 before the current bear phase took hold.

From July's $3.66 peak, XRP has declined 63% to $1.35. The decline has been orderly rather than capitulatory — a gradual grind lower with periodic accumulation zones rather than a single violent crash. The $2.00 level provided meaningful support through late 2025 before eventually breaking. Current price action is testing the $1.30-$1.44 consolidation range that has defined February. A break below $1.30 opens the path toward $1.00 and the ETF's year-low equivalent. A hold above $1.30 and recovery toward $1.50 would represent the first higher low since the decline from $3.66 — a necessary condition for any trend reversal.

XRPI and XRPR at $7.70 — Verdict: Hold Above $6.50, Accumulate Below $7.50, Sell Only Below $6.00

Hold existing XRPI and XRPR positions at $7.70. The ETF flow data is unambiguously constructive: $1.24 billion cumulative inflows, 50% share of altcoin ETF capital, consistent positive flows even on the worst days of the crypto bear market, and just three negative flow days in all of February. Institutional capital is accumulating XRP through ETF wrappers with a conviction that contradicts the 67% price drawdown from $23.53. The SEC resolution removes the regulatory discount that suppressed XRP for five years. Ripple's cross-border payment utility provides a fundamental use case that most crypto tokens lack. These are the conditions that precede multi-month recoveries in ETF-backed crypto assets — persistent institutional accumulation during drawdowns followed by price catching up to flows once sentiment shifts.

Accumulate XRPI and XRPR below $7.50 with a staggered approach: add at $7.50, $7.00, and $6.50 (the year-low). The $6.50 level represents the maximum historical stress point for these ETFs and, unless XRP-USD breaks below $1.00, is unlikely to be violated. Position sizing should account for the extreme volatility — the $6.50-to-$23.53 annual range implies 262% peak-to-trough movement, meaning full positions should be sized for the possibility of a further 15-20% decline before any recovery materializes.

Sell or avoid only on a confirmed daily close below $6.00 in XRPI/XRPR, which would correspond to XRP-USD breaking below approximately $1.05. That level would represent a new cycle low, invalidate the institutional accumulation thesis, and suggest that the ETF flow data is being overwhelmed by spot market selling in a way that hasn't occurred yet. At $7.70, the risk-reward favors patience. The flows say accumulation. The price says capitulation. History — across Bitcoin ETFs, gold ETFs, and every other flow-driven product — shows that flows lead and price follows. Not always immediately. But eventually.

That's TradingNEWS