XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR Trade Near Cycle Lows While $1.25B Flows and $1.87 XRP Position for Q1 2026

Ripple XRP ETFs (XRPI, XRPR) trade near cycle lows while the story shifts from inflows to conviction

Price snapshot: XRPI and XRPR pinned close to the bottom of their 2025 ranges

XRPI (NASDAQ:XRPI) finished the latest session around $10.71, up about 0.093% on the day, with after-hours trading easing to roughly $10.67, a move of about -0.37% from the close. The cash session stayed locked between $10.56 and $10.85, only a few cents above the year low at $10.44 and far under the 52-week high near $23.53. Average volume around 539K shares confirms that XRPI has credible liquidity for a relatively young XRP ETF.
XRPR (BATS:XRPR) closed flat at $15.19, moving inside a narrow $15.09–$15.42 band. Its 52-week range stretches from $14.79 to $25.99, so the current price also sits in the lower third of its annual corridor. Average volume near 34K shares signals a more concentrated holder base, but spreads remain manageable for size.
Underneath the ETFs, XRP-USD itself trades around $1.86–$1.87, with a 24-hour range near $1.84–$1.88, daily spot volume of roughly $1.07B, and a market cap close to $113B. Price is stuck in a tight band while the ETF wrapper has already grown into a multi-billion-dollar structure.

The XRP ETF engine: $1.14B inflows, $1.24–$1.25B in assets, first zero-inflow day after a long streak

The XRP ETF complex has accumulated about $1.14B in cumulative net inflows since launch, lifting total net assets to roughly $1.24–$1.25B. That puts XRP in a small group of crypto assets with a fully formed U.S. spot ETF ecosystem and institutional scale AUM.
The most recent trading day printed a net inflow of exactly $0.00. That single session ended a multi-week run of positive inflows and triggered the first real debate over whether the initial allocation wave is slowing. Despite the zero-inflow reading, total ETF trading volume reached around $16.61M during the day, showing that secondary trading stayed active even without fresh primary capital.
Across the ecosystem, leadership is clear. A Canary-branded XRP ETF controls about $325.93M in net assets and advanced roughly 0.41% in the last session. A large European issuer runs an XRP product around $250.68M, down a marginal 0.02%. U.S. offerings aligned with Bitwise (about $227.15M), Grayscale (about $225.11M) and Franklin Templeton (around $206.90M) round out the top tier, and most of them still closed in positive territory despite the pause in net inflows.
For XRPR, sponsor data shows total assets around $91.9M, a close at $15.19, a NAV near $15.33, and an implied discount of roughly 0.9%, with a 30-day median bid–ask spread near 0.19%. That is tight enough for institutional execution as long as order size respects depth.
The ETF signal is straightforward: capital that already entered is anchored; the marginal buyer simply paused for a day.

Support erosion under XRP-USD: long-term holders reduce exposure and derivatives leverage collapses

While ETF AUM has stabilized at a high base, structural support elsewhere in XRP is weakening. On-chain “HODL wave” metrics show that wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years have aggressively reduced their share of circulating supply. That cohort dropped from about 14.26% in late November to roughly 5.66% by late December, a collapse of more than two-thirds in a month. This looks like long-term holders taking profits or exiting risk rather than adding into ETF headlines.
In derivatives, open interest for XRP futures on a major exchange has slid to around $450M, the lowest reading since November 2024. From prior peaks, that is a large cut in outstanding positions, driven mainly by the closure of leveraged longs. A sharp open-interest decline with a fairly stable spot price is usually a sign that traders are abandoning directional bets instead of pressing them.
The result is a thinner safety net. With patient holders lighter and leveraged traders scaled down, XRP becomes more vulnerable to downside shock if a negative catalyst appears while ETF inflows are flat.

Short-term tape for XRP-USD: tight range, weak breadth, and a market storing energy

In the near term, XRP-USD is locked in compression. The token is boxed between support around $1.81 and resistance near $1.90. Sellers repeatedly step in across the $1.90–$1.91 band, while buyers defend the $1.86–$1.87 region and, below that, the $1.77–$1.80 pocket where demand has appeared in previous pullbacks.
On a recent active session, volume climbed to roughly 75.3M tokens, about 76% above average, yet price stalled near resistance and slid back toward $1.86. Heavy turnover into a ceiling, followed by a fade, is classic overhead supply behavior, not a breakout attempt.
Breadth is weak. XRP trades below its 200-day simple moving average and has registered only 12 positive days in the last 30 sessions. A widely watched Fear & Greed index sits near 23, indicating persistent fear. Even so, there is no confirmed breakdown: a clear close under $1.86 would put $1.77–$1.80 in play first, with $1.68 and $1.52 lurking as deeper downside levels if selling accelerates.
On shorter time frames, XRP price is “coiling” inside a triangle structure, with about $2M in liquidations over 24 hours, mostly hitting longs. At the same time, reported volume dropped around 37% day-over-day, matching a year-end tape in which very few traders are willing to chase direction.

Correlation pressure: XRP follows Bitcoin’s stalled rebound and trades under a late-year equity grind

XRP’s behavior mirrors the broader risk complex. Bitcoin lost steam during U.S. trading hours and stalled around $87.5K–$88K, pinning the wider market in narrow ranges. When BTC cannot push higher, capital rotation into altcoins tends to dry up. XRP is doing exactly that: respecting support, but failing to punch through the nearby ceiling.
On the equity side, the U.S. market is parked near record highs on low volume. The last pre-weekend session finished almost flat, fitting the classic “Santa Claus rally” drift as the calendar approaches year-end. That matters for XRP-USD because renewed risk-on appetite in equities at the next open could back an upside attempt in crypto, while a sharp equity reversal would likely weaken already fragile sentiment around XRP.
Macro catalysts in the immediate term are modest: trade-balance data, a pending home-sales print, and a regional manufacturing survey slated for Monday, December 29 will adjust rate and dollar expectations slightly but are not game-changers on their own. The real issue is liquidity. A full trading day on December 31 followed by a market holiday on January 1, 2026 creates a fragmented tape where routine headlines can produce disproportionate reactions in 24/7 asset classes like XRP.

Q1 2026 setup: five XRP catalysts compressed into one quarter

The medium-term story for XRPI, XRPR, and XRP-USD is dominated by Q1 2026, when several distinct catalysts converge.
January opens the window for new XRP ETF filing signals. Large allocators will reassess the odds of additional XRP funds beyond the current lineup from Canary, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Bitwise, and others. If the implied probability of a fresh flagship product—especially one branded by a tier-one asset manager—rises, large accounts typically start building positions in XRPI, XRPR, and other XRP exposure quietly, ahead of public confirmation.
February is about regulatory decisions and extensions tied to pending XRP ETF applications and related products. Any clearance, delay, or new condition reshapes institutional risk models. In parallel, enterprises aligned with Ripple often time announcement cycles to match finalized annual budgets, so Q1 is the logical slot for updates on payment corridors, enterprise integrations, and ecosystem tooling.
March is dominated by the FOMC meeting and the forward-rate path. If the Federal Reserve confirms a 2026 easing cycle, the cost of capital drops and multi-year infrastructure projects—like integrating XRPL rails into banking workflows—become easier to justify. Lower yields on risk-free assets also tend to push portfolio construction toward higher-beta exposures, which can include XRP ETFs.
Running through this quarter is the rollout of RLUSD in Japan. Japan already accounts for a large share of Ripple’s payment volume. Launching RLUSD, a USD-backed stablecoin integrated with local banking partners, turns XRP’s network into a day-to-day settlement infrastructure rather than a speculative thesis. As flows migrate to those rails, ETFs like XRPI and XRPR increasingly reflect an asset that underpins real payments, not just trading.

Post-litigation architecture: Ripple Prime, cross-border corridors, and the impact on XRPI and XRPR

Operationally, Ripple spent 2025 building out capital-markets plumbing around XRP. Ripple Prime, the prime-brokerage-style institutional platform, gives professional counterparties agency-style execution, credit, and integrated custody services. That lowers friction for funds that want XRP exposure but are unwilling to manage fragmented exchange relationships or operational risk on their own.
At the same time, a string of acquisitions and partnerships across Asia and Latin America has expanded XRP’s presence in cross-border flows. These arrangements move real settlement volume through XRPL in corridors where traditional correspondent banking is slow or expensive.
Crucially, the long legal fight that previously overshadowed XRP is now resolved. A 2025 resolution removed core uncertainty around the classification of XRP-USD in secondary markets, which unlocked the legal pathway for spot XRP ETFs and allowed risk committees at institutions to approve allocations. With the litigation cloud gone, regulatory risk is now an asset: a known, bounded factor that supports product approvals and scaled adoption rather than blocking them.
A secondary frontier is emerging in crypto payroll and financial inclusion. In economies facing high inflation or capital controls, XRP-based rails offer a way to handle cross-border payroll and vendor payments with lower friction than legacy systems. If even a small share of employers adopt XRP-linked solutions, that introduces recurring, programmatic demand which sits underneath the speculative layer.

Reconciling the data: ETF strength vs. spot price weakness in XRPI, XRPR, and XRP-USD

There is a clear disconnect between flows and price. As of late November, XRPI traded near $12.69, while XRPR sat around $17.85. Today, XRPI is about $10.71 and XRPR approximately $15.19, a drawdown of roughly 15–16% despite ETF assets climbing above $1.2B and cumulative inflows reaching about $1.14B.
Both funds are near the bottom of their annual ranges. XRPI is only 2–3% above the $10.44 low. XRPR is similarly parked not far from $14.79. For an ETF suite with more than $1.24–$1.25B in combined net assets, this pricing reflects strong caution.
The reason sits in the rest of the structure. Long-term holders have taken profits, shrinking the 2–3 year cohort’s share of supply from 14.26% to 5.66% in roughly a month. Derivatives open interest has fallen to $450M, the lowest since November 2024, showing that leveraged speculative capital has stepped aside. Those two changes remove reflexive upside while amplifying the potential impact of any negative shock.
At the same time, ETF investors have not exited. The complex has demonstrated that it can sustain 30+ consecutive positive inflow days and even print single-day additions like $8.19M into XRP funds when headline conditions are supportive. Assets remain around $1.24–$1.25B even after the first $0 inflow session.
The structure now looks like this: fast money in spot and derivatives has backed off, while slower, regulated capital inside XRPI, XRPR, and peers remains committed.

Risk profile: where XRPI, XRPR, and XRP-USD can still break

Downside risk is clear and cannot be ignored. For XRP-USD, a decisive break below $1.81 followed by failure in the $1.77–$1.80 zone would likely expose $1.68 and then $1.52. With long-term holders lighter and derivatives leverage already flushed, there is less organic bid ready to catch a forced-selling wave if a macro or regulatory shock hits.
For XRPR, relatively low average volume means spreads can widen in stressed tape. A persistent discount to NAV, already around 0.9%, would be a red flag if it deepens alongside falling AUM. That would suggest ETF holders themselves are turning into net sellers rather than long-term anchors.
Macro risk is centered on the March 2026 FOMC meeting. If the message tilts toward higher-for-longer instead of a clear easing path, risk premia will need to widen across the board. Under that scenario, both ETF inflows and spot demand for XRP could slow, turning today’s stable base of AUM into potential incremental supply.
There is also execution risk around RLUSD and the real-world payment narrative. A delayed or under-scaled Japanese rollout, or weaker-than-expected volume on new corridors, would blunt the structural utility argument that many institutional holders are implicitly buying into.

Upside case: why the same numbers justify a bullish stance on XRPI and XRPR into Q1 2026

The same dataset supports a constructive view if you focus on positioning rather than noise.
First, the XRP ETF engine is real. About $1.14B of net inflows and $1.24–$1.25B of assets represent money that cleared due diligence and compliance. This is not leveraged perp exposure; it is cash wired into regulated vehicles.
Second, the inflow pattern—dozens of consecutive positive days before a single flat session—looks like a deliberate allocation program, not speculation that vanishes at the first drawdown. The pause is notable but not yet a trend change.
Third, XRP-USD is sitting in a defined range with very clear levels. A move above $1.90–$1.91 that holds would put $1.95–$2.00 in play quickly, while ETF inflows and Q1 catalysts could provide the spark.
Fourth, Q1 2026 compresses ETF filing signals, regulatory outcomes, the March FOMC decision, the RLUSD Japan rollout, and deepening XRP ETF options markets into a single quarter. Institutions typically move before that kind of convergence is fully visible. Committees prefer to buy when liquidity is still comfortable and the retail crowd is not chasing.
Finally, Ripple’s post-litigation environment, the build-out of Ripple Prime, and expanding cross-border corridors turn XRP from a “theme” into part of actual financial infrastructure. As more flows settle through XRPL and hedging tools around the ETFs improve, XRP exposure becomes easier to size and hold for long periods.

Verdict: XRPI and XRPR as high-volatility, asymmetric Buy positions

With all the data on the table, the positioning is clear.
XRPI around $10.71 and XRPR near $15.19 sit close to their 2025 lows after roughly 15–16% pullbacks from late-November levels. At the same time, the XRP ETF complex holds about $1.24–$1.25B in assets, backed by $1.14B in cumulative inflows and a history of extended positive-flow streaks.
Structural supports outside ETFs—long-term holders and derivatives leverage—have weakened, which explains why the spot chart looks fragile and why the downside path is still open if a negative catalyst hits.
However, the combination of resilient ETF AUM, deep Q1 2026 catalysts, maturing options markets, a clearer regulatory regime, and operational progress around RLUSD and cross-border payment rails argues against a neutral stance.
Given that balance, XRPI and XRPR are best viewed as high-risk, asymmetric exposure with a bullish tilt. Size must reflect crypto-level volatility, but for investors comfortable with that risk, the data supports a Buy stance rather than Sell or Hold.

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