XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR Drop 5% as Price Clings to $1.40 and Flows Turn Positive

XRP ETFs: Flows Turn Positive While Price Hovers Around $1.40

Price and volume snapshot for XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD

XRPI ETF (NASDAQ: XRPI) closed at $7.92, down 4.92% on the session, after trading between $7.87 and $8.23 with a previous close of $8.33. The 52-week range of $6.50–$23.53 shows how extreme the prior cycle was and how far the fund still sits below the top of the band. Average daily volume around 546K units keeps execution friction relatively low even on volatile days.XRPR ETF (BATS: XRPR) finished at $11.39, a 5.32% daily drop, within an intraday band of $11.22–$11.81 versus a previous close of $12.03. The yearly range of $9.50–$25.99 mirrors XRPI’s profile: a high-beta instrument that already absorbed more than a 60% peak-to-trough swing. Liquidity is thinner here, with roughly 22K shares changing hands per day, so slippage risk is higher for larger tickets.Underneath both funds sits XRP-USD, recently trading around $1.39–$1.43 after touching a weekly low near $1.31. Over the last three months the token has shed roughly 35%, even after a rebound of about 29% off the $1.121 low earlier in February. Price is trying to stabilize around the $1.40 area while the ETF complex reprices that same base with embedded leverage through sentiment and flows.

US spot XRP ETF flows: small size, but the direction has flipped

After several sessions of stagnation and prior outflows, US spot XRP ETFs have shifted back to net inflows. Starting February 24, cumulative two-day inflows of roughly $6.13M have been reported into the US spot complex, breaking a short drought where funds barely moved. Total net assets in US spot XRP ETFs now stand near $1.06B, equal to about 1.19% of circulating supply, with cumulative net inflows since launch around $1.24B.These prints are modest versus larger crypto segments but material for XRP. They show regulated capital is not capitulating at current levels. The timing matters: inflows re-appeared after XRP had already lost more than 32% from the start of the month, not near the highs. That behavior is consistent with selective averaging into weakness rather than chasing strength.The pattern is also consistent session to session. Roughly $3.04M in net inflows was followed by about $3.09M, signaling a short streak of steady buying rather than a one-off spike. For the spot complex that services institutional-style mandates, this shift in direction is more important than the raw dollar size.

XRPI, XRPR and XRPZ: what allocation choices say about risk appetite

Within the XRP ETF universe the flows are uneven. Franklin’s XRPZ recorded around $1.53M of net inflows on February 20, equal to roughly 0.68% of its $225.15M in assets. That is a meaningful print relative to fund size and shows willingness to re-add XRP exposure via a single issuer’s wrapper, not just through the broader US complex.At the same time, XRP-USD trades near $1.39–$1.45 on different feeds with a three-month drawdown above 35% and short-term technical models flashing Strong Sell. That creates a clear divergence: spot is weak, but regulated products like XRPZ, XRPI and XRPR are still attracting incremental capital instead of seeing persistent redemptions.XRPI and XRPR sit on top of this structure as listed vehicles that translate those allocation calls into daily price moves. AUM in the wider XRP ETF segment remains well below the prior ~$1.65B peak from January, but the latest inflow prints show the bleed is not accelerating. Around $3M per day into the US complex and $1.5M into XRPZ signal that some capital is prepared to absorb volatility here and treat the drawdown as a reset opportunity.

Infrastructure and regulation: RLUSD, permissioned DEX and the Clarity Act

Beyond price and flows, the underlying ecosystem is shifting. On the infrastructure side, XRP Ledger development is delivering institution-facing tools: a permissioned DEX aimed at participants that cannot route orders through fully permissionless pools, and the Deutsche Bank–linked RLUSD stablecoin initiative that uses XRPL as settlement rails.Those pieces matter for XRPI and XRPR because the asset they track is moving from a narrow remittance narrative toward a broader settlement and tokenization role. If RLUSD and permissioned liquidity pools gain traction, XRP-USD becomes less dependent on speculative cycles and more tied to payment and RWA volumes.Regulation adds another layer. US spot XRP ETFs now control about 1.19% of circulating supply, while the Clarity Act process and the March 1 deadline keep policy risk front and center. In parallel, the SEC’s decision window on an active T. Rowe Price crypto ETF, which lists XRP among eligible holdings, can either validate or delay the next phase of ETF penetration. A green light or constructive extension would support the path for further XRP inclusion into diversified products; a rejection or hostile readout would cap risk appetite and reprice all XRP-linked wrappers lower.The result is a regime of cautious optimism. Infrastructure progress and political timelines justify some re-risking into ETFs, but the headline risk is obvious enough that flows remain measured rather than aggressive.

Derivatives reset: futures open interest back to early-2025 levels

Futures data show a deep leverage reset. XRP futures open interest has fallen to roughly $2.24B, the lowest level since January 2025 when spot traded in the $1.40–$1.50 range. At the peak in July, OI stood around $10.94B as XRP printed its current all-time high near $3.66. That is an almost 80% contraction in notional positioning.This cut in leverage is two-sided. There is less fuel for disorderly long liquidations, meaning the violent flush-outs characteristic of overlevered tops are less likely at current prices. However, there is also less speculative capital available to drive explosive short squeezes, so rebounds tend to be slower and more dependent on spot and ETF demand rather than derivatives dynamics.Short-term, weak OI is a drag because it lowers the odds of a sharp, self-reinforcing breakout. Medium-term, a leverage reset at these levels after a 35% spot drawdown often sets the stage for more sustainable advances, provided that new capital enters through spot and ETFs and that policy risk does not inject a fresh shock.

Technical map: XRP trying to hold $1.40 while eyeing $1.54 and $1.63

On the chart, XRP-USD is trading just above $1.43 after rebounding from a weekly low at $1.31. The immediate resistance zone is clustered near $1.54, where a prior recovery attempt stalled on February 6. Above that level, the 50-day EMA around $1.63 and a descending trendline drawn from the $3.66 record high combine into a heavier supply band.The MACD line on the daily time frame has crossed above its signal line but remains below zero, signaling improving yet fragile momentum rather than a clear trend shift. The RSI around 44 sits below the midpoint, consistent with a market emerging from oversold conditions but still trading within a broader downtrend.Support is layered on the downside. First defense is around $1.40, followed by this week’s trough near $1.31 and then the October 10 low near $1.25. A daily close below $1.31 would invalidate the current stabilization narrative and reopen a path toward that $1.25 region.For XRPI and XRPR, this grid translates into leveraged exposure to whether XRP-USD can defend the $1.31–$1.40 band and then clear $1.54. A break and hold above $1.54 would likely pull XRPI away from $7.92 toward the upper part of its recent range and allow XRPR to recover from $11.39 back toward the mid-$12s.

Macro and cross-asset context: tariffs, Nvidia and shifting risk appetite

The broader market environment remains a key driver. XRP’s uptick above $1.40 has tracked a wider crypto rebound, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $68,000 region after dipping below $64,000 and Ether bouncing back toward $2,000 after sliding to roughly $1,985. This move came as risk sentiment improved following robust earnings from Nvidia, which helped keep the AI and high-beta trade alive despite new tariff headlines.At the same time, macro risk is still elevated. Shifts in US tariff policy have already generated volatility across risk assets, and further escalation on that front could hit high-beta tokens like XRP disproportionally. Crypto continues to trade in tandem with broader risk sentiment: it benefits from strong tech earnings and easing macro fears, but quickly gives back ground when markets revert to defensive positioning.For XRPI and XRPR, this means performance is not only tied to XRP-specific catalysts but also to whether the equity market stays in a risk-seeking regime. A rotation back toward defensive sectors and away from AI, semis and growth would compress appetite for marginal XRP risk, even if ETF flows remain slightly positive.

Risk matrix: what can still go wrong for XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD

Several risks can still undercut the current stabilization phase.ETF flows, while improved, are still small. The ~$6.13M two-day inflow into US spot products and the ~$1.53M into XRPZ are constructive but not decisive. A short sequence of outflow days could erase this progress quickly and push total net assets further away from the prior ~$1.65B peak.Derivatives positioning remains thin. With open interest at $2.24B versus $10.94B at the top, the speculative layer is light. If XRP-USD falls back below $1.31, there will be fewer overextended shorts to squeeze and fewer aggressive longs to buy dips, increasing the risk of a slow, grinding decline rather than a sharp but brief washout.Regulatory events can turn into downside catalysts. A delay or negative outcome on the T. Rowe Price active crypto ETF, where XRP is on the eligible list, would push back expectations of broader XRP adoption in multi-asset products. Any adverse surprise around the Clarity Act timeline or further friction linked to Ripple’s long-running regulatory overhang would weigh on both XRPI and XRPR.Sentiment is still fragile. Weeks of outflows and a 35% drawdown do not unwind in a few sessions of modest inflows. Fear can reassert itself quickly if Bitcoin loses the $66,000–$68,000 region or if macro headlines shift back toward stress. In that scenario, XRP remains one of the first assets to be de-risked.

Stance on XRPI and XRPR: high-volatility Buy with defined downside levels

Aggregating price action, flows, derivatives and policy risk, the picture remains mixed but skewed toward opportunity rather than collapse. XRP-USD is down about 35% over three months but has rallied roughly 29% off the $1.121 low. ETF assets are at about $1.06B versus a January peak of $1.65B, yet flows have turned positive with around $6.13M over two days in the US complex and $1.53M into XRPZ. Futures open interest has reset from $10.94B to $2.24B, taking out a large portion of speculative leverage.Infrastructure advances via RLUSD and a permissioned DEX, combined with imminent policy milestones such as the Clarity Act deadline and the SEC review of the T. Rowe Price vehicle, point toward a gradually maturing framework rather than a shrinking one. Technically, the $1.31–$1.40 band is the pivot, with $1.54 and $1.63 as near-term upside checkpoints.As long as XRP-USD holds above approximately $1.31 and ETF flows avoid a return to heavy, persistent outflows, XRPI at $7.92 and XRPR at $11.39 justify a high-volatility Buy stance for capital that accepts material drawdown risk. The constructive path is a move through $1.54 and toward the 50-day EMA near $1.63, which would likely re-rate XRPI toward the upper $8s and give XRPR room to retrace a meaningful portion of the latest 5.32% drop.If $1.31 fails on a daily close, ETF flows flip back to net red for several sessions and policy headlines disappoint, that stance shifts down to Hold or trim exposure. For now, with leverage flushed, infrastructure moving forward, and regulated products attracting measured inflows, the weight of evidence still supports treating the current area as a deep correction phase rather than an exhausted market for XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD.

That's TradingNEWS