XRP ETFs Reset: XRPI, XRPR and XRPZ Track a Tense $1.50 Resistance Test

XRP ETF complex: XRPI, XRPR and XRPZ track a volatile $1.40–$1.60 XRP trading band

XRPI ETF – price action, flows and what a $8.14 handle really tells you

Volatility Shares’ XRPI XRP ETF trades around $8.14 after dropping 4.16% on the day, slipping from a previous close at $8.49 with an intraday range between $8.11 and $8.50. That slide comes even as XRPI pulled in roughly $1.26 million of fresh money on February 12, equal to about 1.22% of its $103.7 million in assets under management. The combination of negative daily performance and positive flow is important: price action is still reflecting the 36.69% drawdown in XRP-USD over the last three months, but capital is quietly rotating back in through the ETF wrapper rather than spot. With average volume near 614,000 shares, these inflows are meaningful without being a euphoric rush – they represent deliberate sizing up while XRP trades at a discount to its Q4 2025 highs.

XRPR ETF – thin liquidity, tight range and how $11.96 fits into the XRP story

REX Osprey XRP ETF XRPR changes hands around $11.96, down 1.89% on the session from a $12.19 previous close, with an extremely tight intraday band between $11.96 and $12.00. Average volume of just 12,900 shares underscores how different XRPR’s profile is versus XRPI – XRPR behaves more like a niche access product than a deep institutional vehicle. The key point is that XRPR is hugging the lower half of its $9.50–$25.99 one-year range despite XRP spot trading in the mid-$1 zone, which highlights how earlier euphoric pricing has been bled out. Anyone stepping in at $11–$12 is not paying for the $25.99 spike; they are effectively buying a reset multiple on the same underlying XRP exposure but inside a thinly traded wrapper that can amplify gaps if sentiment flips hard in either direction.

XRP spot – $1.40–$1.50 support and the battle around the $1.50 ceiling

XRP-USD trades roughly in the $1.42–$1.50 band, with several feeds showing spot around $1.46–$1.47 and a three-month loss of about 36–57% depending on the measurement window. Price keeps gravitating to the $1.40 support zone while sellers cap every attempt to reclaim $1.50. A Relative Strength Index sitting around 49 signals a neutral regime – not washed-out capitulation and not overbought – and MACD barely above zero with a reading near 0.0047 confirms a weak bullish bias that lacks follow-through. The trade is simple: a clean daily close above $1.50 opens a path toward $1.60; a break below $1.40 points back to the mid-$1.20s or even the prior $1.11 local low that followed the slide from $2.57 at the peak of the last run.

XRPZ – Franklin Templeton’s 118M-XRP position and what a NAV of $16.08 signals

Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ XRP ETF has quietly built a position of 118,387,154 XRP with a reported fair value of about $216.4 million at year-end 2025 and total net assets near $243.6 million by mid-February 2026. The structure is pure-play: 100% of net assets are allocated to XRP, with no diversification into other tokens or cash baskets, which means XRPZ is essentially a listed XRP proxy for institutions that do not want to hold the token directly. Despite the scale of the position, the fund’s net asset value sits around $16.08, translating into a year-to-date return of roughly –18.5% and a total return since launch in November 2025 of about –23.2%. The math is straightforward: XRP fell from around $2.577 at launch to lows near $1.11 and now trades closer to $1.48, so NAV has tracked the drawdown almost one-for-one. What matters is not that performance is negative – that is obvious – but that the ETF has continued to add assets even as returns stayed underwater, a classic institutional accumulation pattern in a volatile asset.

XRP ETF ecosystem – combined $1.06B in assets and how flows shift the risk balance

Across the XRP ETF ecosystem, products from Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Canary Capital, Grayscale and 21Shares now control about $1.06 billion in XRP-linked assets with cumulative inflows of roughly $1.23 billion since launch. On days like the recent low-volume session where U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs saw no net new flows and daily trading hovered around $22.9 million, the market is essentially in “price discovery pause” mode: no capitulation, no aggressive dip-buy. XRPI’s $1.26 million inflow against a backdrop of flat flows elsewhere underlines how flows are rotating between products rather than pouring in across the board. The bigger picture is that XRP exposure is increasingly intermediated through regulated funds rather than direct token holdings, which dampens some operational risk but adds another layer of sentiment – ETF buyers tend to be slower to chase intraday spikes yet more stable in their allocations when volatility rises.

Technical picture – weak bullish bias, narrow histogram and why $1.60 matters more than $1.30

From a pure technical lens, XRP’s current setup is defined by a neutral RSI around 49, a MACD line marginally above the signal line and a histogram hugging zero. That combination usually precedes a volatility expansion – it does not tell you direction, but it tells you that “flat” is unlikely to last. The immediate levels are clear: $1.40 is the support that has cushioned each pullback after the drop from $2.57; $1.50 is the ceiling that the market has failed to hold; $1.60 is the first real confirmation zone where sidelined money is likely to admit it is on the wrong side of the move. On the downside, a sustained break below $1.40 brings the $1.20s into play and reopens the path toward $1.11, where earlier panic lows printed during the worst of the selloff. As long as XRP trades in the $1.40–$1.50 channel with ETFs like XRPI and XRPZ absorbing supply, the bias leans toward a grind rather than a crash, but the tape will move fast once either boundary breaks.

Flows versus price – how XRPI’s 1.22% AUM inflow clashes with a 36.69% XRP drawdown

One of the most important contradictions in the current setup is the clash between price and flows. XRP is down about 36.69% over three months, yet XRPI just captured 1.22% of its AUM in a single day of inflows. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ has grown its assets to roughly $243.6 million while sitting on a –18.5% YTD return and a –23.2% post-launch slide. That pattern – negative performance, positive flows – usually signals that large allocators are treating the drawdown as an entry window rather than an exit trigger. The risk is obvious: if XRP fails to reclaim and hold levels above $1.50–$1.60, these positions will be sitting deeper in the red and some of that “patient capital” could turn into forced supply. But as long as inflows keep offsetting selling pressure, the ETFs act as a shock absorber that slows down any attempt to push XRP back toward $1.00.

Risk map – ETF structure, headline risk and what can still go wrong from here

The risk set for XRPI, XRPR and XRPZ is not subtle. Every product is effectively a leveraged bet on the same underlying XRP path, with different wrappers and liquidity profiles. Structural risk is straightforward: XRPR’s thin average volume around 12,900 shares means wider spreads and potential gaps if flows accelerate; XRPI has healthier turnover but remains tied to crypto market hours and XRP-specific headlines; XRPZ concentrates 100% of its net assets in XRP, which magnifies tracking of spot drawdowns. Macro risk remains dominated by Federal Reserve policy and the broader appetite for risk assets – any hawkish repricing that pushes real yields higher will weigh on speculative crypto flows. Regulatory and legal noise around XRP’s status and cross-border use cases remains a constant overhang, and any meaningful shock there will hit ETF NAVs instantly. The key is that these risks are now spread across multiple regulated vehicles; that does not remove them, but it does change who holds the bag when volatility spikes.

Positioning view – how to read XRPI at $8.14, XRPR at $11.96 and XRPZ’s 118M XRP stash

Taken together, XRPI at $8.14, XRPR at $11.96 and XRPZ’s 118 million-XRP hoard describe a market that has already digested the first leg of the drawdown from $2.57 XRP and is now probing whether $1.40–$1.50 is a base or a pause before another leg lower. The numbers show that capital is not fleeing – XRPI inflows, XRPZ asset growth and a combined $1.06 billion in XRP ETF assets point to steady institutional interest – but they also show that no one is willing to pay launch-level prices yet. The trade-off is clear: upside back toward $1.60–$1.80 exists if the Fed tone softens and ETF demand broadens; downside back toward the low $1s remains on the table if macro risk spikes or regulatory shocks return. At current levels, these ETFs are best used as precision tools for allocating around that $1.40–$1.60 range rather than as blind buy-and-forget vehicles – the tape is telling you that the next $0.20–$0.30 move in XRP-USD will decide whether these discounts were opportunity or value trap.

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