XRP Price Forecast - Analysts See 70% Upside Potential as XRP-USD Holds $2.03

Ripple (XRP-USD) Institutional Accumulation Expands as Price Stabilizes Near $2.03 Amid ETF Inflows and SEC Case Optimism

XRP Price Holds $2.03 Support as ETF Demand Hits $861 Million and Institutional Buying Dominates

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) trades at $2.03 as of December 7, 2025, consolidating within a tight range between $2.02–$2.07 after a volatile two-week stretch. Despite a 7.9% decline during the 15-day ETF inflow streak, the token remains supported by one of the most persistent institutional accumulation phases in its history. U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs have recorded 15 consecutive days of net inflows, adding $861 million in capital and absorbing nearly 1% of XRP’s total circulating supply.

Daily ETF contributions peaked at $100 million per session, with total assets under management nearing $900 million. This steady capital influx reflects rule-based institutional positioning rather than speculative retail participation. Most large purchases have been executed through OTC channels, limiting visible price impact on exchanges but reinforcing long-term structural demand. The quiet absorption of supply suggests that major financial desks are preparing for broader regulated use cases of Ripple’s on-chain settlement infrastructure across North America, Europe, and Asia.

Legal Developments With SEC Continue to Influence Ripple’s Market Structure

Ripple’s ongoing SEC case remains a defining catalyst for XRP’s valuation. The market has grown increasingly confident in a favorable or partial settlement, particularly after the latest judicial briefings that reframed XRP’s sales classification. Optimism surrounding Ripple Labs’ legal momentum pushed XRP up 15% overnight earlier this month before consolidating near $2.03.

Analysts view the litigation phase as a binary event shaping institutional onboarding. If a comprehensive resolution removes the “security” label from XRP sales, it would unlock U.S.-based custody expansion, ETF approvals from major issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity, and banking integrations for cross-border liquidity. Market participants in Australia, Japan, and Singapore have already priced in Ripple’s expanding licensing footprint, including 34 U.S. money transmitter licenses and progress on the RLUSD stablecoin initiative.

Ripple’s Ecosystem Expansion Reinforces XRP’s Long-Term Utility

Ripple continues strengthening its real-world payment rails through RippleNet and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) expansion. Its integration with the 1Money stablecoin platform, co-founded by former Binance.US CEO Brian Shroder, has become a structural boost to XRP’s liquidity narrative. The 1Money platform offers zero gas fees and frictionless settlement, making it compatible with Ripple’s institutional-grade infrastructure.

The synergy between Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and 1Money’s rails signals a systemic shift toward bank-grade blockchain settlements, where XRP serves as the liquidity bridge for multi-currency cross-border transactions. Ripple’s payment corridors now cover over 70 markets, processing billions in annual remittance volume with settlement speeds under 3 seconds and fees below $0.01 per transaction — a level of efficiency unmatched by any traditional correspondent banking system.

ETF Inflows Drive Structural Liquidity While Sentiment Remains in “Extreme Fear” Zone

Despite sustained institutional demand, XRP sentiment has collapsed to extreme fear levels, according to Santiment data. This aligns with prior market bottoms — notably the November 21 rebound, when XRP rallied over 30% within five sessions following similar sentiment troughs.

Data from Coinglass and CoinDesk Analytics shows that XRP’s social volume and funding rates remain depressed, with 6–12 month holders reducing exposure from 26.18% to 21.65%, while long-term ETF custodians quietly accumulate positions. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have maintained zero outflow days since launch, with a total net inflow of $906 million as of this week.

The TD Sequential indicator on the weekly timeframe has flashed an early reversal signal, coinciding with the MACD histogram turning positive and the RSI rebounding above 45. These technical factors suggest waning downside momentum and the potential for a recovery toward $2.10–$2.12, provided that the $2.02 floor continues to hold.

Technical Overview: Descending Channel Breakout Approaches $2.05 Resistance

The hourly chart shows a persistent descending channel, with price oscillating between $2.02 and $2.07. Volume spikes during breakout attempts indicate institutional activity rather than retail-led volatility. The latest rally to $2.07 occurred on a 68% above-average volume surge before retracing as liquidity faded.

Resistance remains anchored at $2.05, a critical short-term pivot aligned with the 50-hour EMA. A confirmed breakout above this level could open acceleration toward $2.10, followed by $2.12–$2.15, where previous distribution occurred. On the downside, support rests at $2.02, with psychological demand near $2.00. Below that, $1.94 serves as a deeper structural floor, marking the pre-ETF accumulation zone.

Institutional Accumulation and OTC Flows Indicate Structural Bullish Bias

The institutional accumulation ratio (IAR) for XRP has risen steadily, with OTC trades accounting for nearly 70% of large-block activity since late November. This supports the thesis that the current price stabilization phase is being orchestrated by professional money rather than retail speculation.

Each 1% reduction in circulating float due to ETF and custody holdings translates into a supply squeeze across spot exchanges. If ETF inflows continue at the current pace of $40–60 million daily, XRP’s liquid float could shrink by 2–3% before Q1 2026 — a tightening effect similar to early Bitcoin ETF cycles.

Macro Conditions and Cross-Market Correlations Shape XRP’s Momentum

The correlation coefficient between XRP-USD and BTC-USD currently stands at 0.74, down from 0.91 in November, showing increasing independence. XRP’s price has become more tied to regulatory progress and institutional flows than to Bitcoin’s broader market cycles.

On the macro front, Fed rate-cut expectations for March 2026 and growing stablecoin settlement infrastructure support a more favorable liquidity environment for XRP’s utility narrative. The dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.9 continues to underpin alternative asset performance, while declining U.S. yields fuel renewed interest in regulated crypto ETFs.

Market Structure and Whale Behavior Reinforce Long-Term Positioning

On-chain whale tracking shows that wallets holding over 10 million XRP have added 92 million coins since mid-November, raising their combined holdings to 18.7 billion XRP, or roughly 34% of circulating supply. These positions have remained dormant, indicating strategic cold-storage accumulation rather than short-term speculation.

Liquidity depth on Binance, Coinbase, and Bitstamp has improved, with bid-ask spreads narrowing to 0.06%, signaling market-maker confidence in XRP’s stability near $2. XRP’s realized volatility has fallen to 32.7%, its lowest in seven months, despite the 7.4% weekly decline, implying controlled distribution and gradual rebalancing toward accumulation.

Valuation Outlook and Price Scenarios for 2026

If ETF inflows maintain the current trajectory, XRP could reclaim $2.50–$2.65 in Q1 2026. A breakout above $2.85 would open medium-term targets at $3.20–$3.50, representing potential 55–70% upside from current levels.

Conversely, a failure to defend $2.00 could trigger a retracement toward $1.84, where prior institutional bids emerged during October’s consolidation phase. The base-case scenario assumes continued ETF growth, regulatory clarity, and Ripple’s expanding stablecoin infrastructure, placing XRP’s 2026 trading range between $2.00–$3.50, with extreme bullish scenarios eyeing $4.00+ contingent on market-wide risk appetite.

Final Market View and Rating for XRP-USD

Ripple (XRP-USD) stands at a critical accumulation point supported by robust ETF demand, regulatory tailwinds, and infrastructure integration across stablecoin and payment networks. The combination of $861 million inflows, $2.03 consolidation support, and institutional OTC buying suggests a market preparing for higher structural valuation.

Verdict: Buy — accumulate between $2.00–$2.05 with upside potential toward $3.50–$4.00 in 2026.

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