XRP Price Forecast: Holds $1.30 Floor While $1.50 Becomes the Trigger for a 20% March Breakout

XRP-USD: Reset Around $1.40 After Five Straight Monthly Losses

XRP-USD is trading near $1.40–$1.46 after a volatile February bounce off deeply oversold levels. Price is still down more than 50% from October 2025 and has printed five consecutive red monthly candles, which means this is a counter-trend recovery inside a bigger downtrend, not a clean reversal yet. The February low around $1.20 and the repeated defense of the $1.30–$1.35 band have carved out a short-term base, but the structure is still capped by a descending channel in place since late 2025, with every push higher failing below the $1.75–$1.90 supply zone where the channel top and the 100-day moving average cluster.

XRP: Double-Bottom Setup Versus $1.00 Bear-Pennant Breakdown

XRP has defended the $1.30–$1.35 area twice in February, building a clear double-bottom formation on the daily chart. The neckline sits close to $1.50; that is the trigger. A daily close above $1.50 unlocks a measured move toward roughly $1.68–$1.70, about 20% above current pricing and back into the mid-range that preceded this year’s slide. That $1.68–$1.70 pocket is not just a pattern objective; it sits on top of the 50-day moving averages, which XRP-USD has failed to recapture all month. A rejection there would flip the pattern into a bear pennant with a downside projection toward roughly $1.00, close to 30% below current levels. Lose $1.30 and then $1.20 on a daily close and the market is no longer trading a base; it is extending the dominant downtrend.

XRP-USD: On-Chain Positioning and ETF Flows Move Away From Capitulation

On-chain behavior around XRP-USD has shifted from heavy distribution to something much closer to balance, which is exactly what you want to see near a potential cycle low. Ninety-day whale net flows have improved from roughly -33.5 million XRP in December to around -3.3 million XRP now, a tenfold reduction in net outflows even though spot slid another ~25% over that same window. At the same time, addresses holding at least 1,000 XRP have started to add again, showing larger accounts are no longer hitting bids and are instead accumulating around the $1.20–$1.40 region. The last time a similar easing in whale selling appeared, in April 2025, it preceded a move of more than 50% in the following months. Flows into listed products tell a similar story: XRP-linked funds have just recorded about $3.5 million of inflows while the broader crypto ETP space saw roughly $288 million of outflows, which means fresh capital is rotating into XRP exposure while withdrawing from the rest of the complex.

XRP-USD: USDT Pair Still Locked Inside a Descending Channel

On the USDT pair, XRP-USD is still trading inside a clear descending channel that has dominated price action since late last year. Price recently bounced from the $1.20 demand band and pushed toward $1.45–$1.50, which is mid-channel and now a key pivot area. The major overhead barrier remains the $1.75–$1.90 cluster, where prior breakdown support, the channel ceiling, and the 100-day moving average all converge. As long as price sits below that supply zone, every bounce is technically just a relief move inside a broader bearish structure. On the downside, the chart stays constructive only while $1.20 holds; a firm break below $1.30 followed by a daily close under $1.20 flips the narrative back to pure trend continuation with $1.10–$1.20 the next demand block.

XRP/BTC: Relative Trend Still Weak Below 2,400–2,500 Satoshis

Versus Bitcoin, XRP is stuck near the lower half of its multi-month range, trading around 2,000 sats after a long period of underperformance. The pair is capped by layered resistance between 2,200 and 2,300 sats, where both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are pressing down, and there is a broader supply area higher up in the 2,400–2,500 sats band. Holding above 2,000 sats and slight improvement in momentum suggest room for a short squeeze or mean reversion, but the relative trend stays negative while price trades below 2,400–2,500 sats. A sustained move above that zone is the level where XRP/BTC stops being a range laggard and starts to signal genuine leadership.

XRP-USD: Momentum, Moving Averages And The $1.69 Trigger Zone

Momentum indicators on XRP-USD are stabilizing but still not confirming a full upside trend. The 14-day RSI is near 44, recovering from oversold readings but still below the neutral 50 line, which matches a market in repair, not in a clear bull leg. Price is also below the 50-day SMA at roughly $1.69 and has failed multiple attempts to reclaim the 50-day EMA during February. That $1.68–$1.70 area now becomes the decisive pivot: a daily close above the 50-day averages and above the $1.50 neckline would finally align pattern confirmation, trend structure, and momentum. Until that break happens, the move from $1.20 to the mid-$1.40s remains a corrective rally inside a larger bearish channel.

XRP: Macro Risk Keeps It A High-Beta Expression Of Liquidity

Macro conditions still matter for XRP and they remain a key swing factor. The token continues to behave like a high-beta vehicle for broader risk appetite, reacting sharply to volatility in AI-linked equities and to geopolitical headlines, especially around US–Iran tensions. Renewed risk-off phases, whether triggered by equity drawdowns or fresh policy shocks, can quickly drain liquidity from altcoins and hit XRP-USD harder than large-cap benchmarks. The five-month slide, the failure to reclaim major moving averages, and the sensitivity to cross-asset moves all show that macro liquidity and policy noise have been a steady headwind. Any sustained push toward $1.68–$1.70 and beyond will need at least a neutral macro backdrop, not another sudden rotation out of high-beta assets.

XRP-USD: “Phase 4” Cycle Map And The High-End Targets

The long-horizon cycle work around XRP-USD being shared on some desks frames the current zone as the early stage of a “Phase 4” expansion. In that mapping, Phase 1 is accumulation and breakout, Phase 2 is corrective consolidation, Phase 3 is prolonged compression inside converging trendlines, and Phase 4 is the explosive leg that follows a multi-year symmetrical triangle. XRP has already pushed above a multi-year triangle and then pulled back toward the upper trendline, which is a textbook retest behavior before expansion. The roadmap tied to that view sets two distant markers: an initial target at the prior all-time high and a stretched Fibonacci extension near $21.5. Those upper targets are aspirational; they only become relevant if the token can first clear the immediate hurdles at $1.50, then $1.68–$1.70, then the $1.75–$1.90 supply zone, and start printing higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. At this stage, XRP-USD is still at the inflection point where a 20% squeeze toward $1.70 is on the table, but so is a break back toward $1.00 if resistance continues to reject every bounce.

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