XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Falls to $2.29 as Ripple ETF Decisions and Market Fear Weigh on Sentiment

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Intense Sell-Off Ahead of ETF Rulings as Market Fear Deepens

Ripple’s native token XRP (XRP-USD) continues to trade under pressure, sliding to around $2.21 after failing to defend the key $2.47–$2.60 resistance zone. The decline extends a four-day losing streak and marks a 7.5% daily drop and nearly 20% loss over the past week. Ripple’s market capitalization now sits near $137 billion, while 24-hour trading volume has surged 62.9% to $8.9 billion, signaling not renewed buying but panic-driven liquidations as leveraged long positions continue to unwind.

Data from CoinGlass shows one of the largest deleveraging events in recent crypto history, with more than $611 million in XRP longs and $90 million in shorts liquidated in a single session. The mass exit has erased speculative momentum, leaving XRP vulnerable to additional declines as buyers hesitate to step back in amid a bearish global environment.

Technical Breakdown Confirms Deepening Bearish Structure

The technical configuration of XRP-USD points to a decisive breakdown. The token has slipped below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the erosion of the long-term bullish channel that supported the asset through early 2025. On the daily chart, XRP remains confined within a descending triangle, with repeated rejections near $2.60–$2.70 acting as a roof on price recovery, and $2.10–$2.20 serving as immediate support.

Momentum indicators are uniformly weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 29, firmly in oversold territory, showing that sellers maintain control and that any rebound attempts have been shallow. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 37 reflects the strength of the ongoing downtrend, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at -0.08 highlights persistent capital outflows. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) prints a deepening red histogram around -0.37, confirming fading demand.

In parallel, the Money Flow Index (MFI) reads 31, underscoring limited inflows and weak accumulation interest. The MACD continues to generate a sell signal since October 9, with no divergence yet to suggest exhaustion. Unless XRP closes above $2.60 on strong volume, the structure points to a continuation of the bearish leg toward lower Fibonacci zones.

On-Chain Data Points to Capitulation and Market Reset

On-chain sentiment reinforces the technical weakness. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)—a gauge of whether traders are selling at profit or loss—has dropped to 1.04, from 1.16 in August. A reading near or below 1.00 historically signals capitulation, where traders sell at breakeven or at a loss, often cleansing the market of speculative excess.

In addition, Open Interest (OI) in XRP futures has plunged to $3.8 billion, down sharply from its $10.9 billion July peak, revealing a near-total washout of leveraged positions. This collapse in OI signals that retail traders have retreated, leaving room for larger institutions to re-enter at discounted valuations once volatility stabilizes. Although bearish short-term, this reset stage historically precedes medium-term recovery phases as selling pressure exhausts itself.

Ripple’s $1 Billion Digital Asset Treasury Strengthens Market Foundations

In a move that may help counter market stress, Ripple Labs has advanced plans to create a $1 billion Digital Asset Treasury (DAT). This initiative—potentially structured through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)—is designed to accumulate and actively manage XRP reserves to stabilize market liquidity and reinforce the token’s enterprise use cases.

Ripple’s recent $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury, a global liquidity management firm, fits strategically into this framework. The integration allows Ripple to merge on-chain settlement capabilities with institutional-grade treasury functions, further anchoring XRP’s role in real-world finance. Should market volatility intensify, Ripple’s DAT could serve as a stabilizing buffer by buying XRP during deep drawdowns, signaling corporate commitment to long-term sustainability.

Spot ETF Approvals Could Redefine XRP’s Market Trajectory

The most critical catalyst in focus is the U.S. SEC’s pending decision on multiple spot XRP ETF applications from issuers including Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, CoinShares, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree. Decisions are expected between October 18 and 25, marking what could be one of the most defining regulatory moments for XRP in years.

Approval of even one application would open the door for institutional capital flows comparable to those seen after Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) ETF approvals. Such a move could attract billions in new inflows, restore confidence, and drive XRP toward $5–$10 under bullish inflow conditions.

However, rejection or prolonged delay would likely reinforce current bearish sentiment. In that case, XRP could face another decline toward $1.95, then $1.80, and potentially $1.50, aligning with the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and a major historical accumulation zone. The next week’s regulatory outcome could therefore determine whether XRP reclaims its bullish narrative or slips deeper into correction.

Macro Pressures and Broader Crypto Liquidation Amplify Volatility

XRP’s decline is also a reflection of global macro sentiment. The total cryptocurrency market cap has fallen nearly 6% to $3.5 trillion, with risk assets pressured by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, an ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and broader liquidity tightening across global markets.

The Fear & Greed Index now sits at 28, signaling extreme fear. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $105,000, and Ethereum (ETH-USD) hovers near $3,790, both down sharply over the past week. The synchronized pullback across digital assets suggests that XRP’s sell-off is not isolated but part of a broader deleveraging cycle.

Because XRP’s fundamental utility is tied to cross-border settlement, its performance often correlates with global trade sentiment and liquidity cycles. The combination of macroeconomic contraction, geopolitical tension, and declining speculative appetite creates a perfect storm that magnifies volatility in remittance-focused tokens like XRP.

Critical Technical Levels Define the Next Moves

Immediate support levels for XRP lie at $2.22, $1.95, and $1.61 — historical zones where institutional accumulation previously triggered reversals. Should selling continue below $2.10, the next target is the $1.50 support, corresponding to the lower bound of the 2025 bullish base.

Resistance levels remain firmly set at $2.47, $2.60, and $2.78, overlapping with the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A confirmed breakout above these lines would signal a potential trend reversal. From a Fibonacci perspective, the 0.236 retracement sits near $2.25, the 0.382 level near $2.49, and the 0.618 level around $3.00. Sustained closes above these thresholds would invalidate the current bearish channel and open the door to a broader recovery wave.

Institutional and Whale Activity Shape the Medium-Term Outlook

Institutional sentiment remains cautious but watchful. Analysts tracking on-chain whale activity report net inflows to exchanges as large holders offload XRP amid uncertainty. However, whale transaction data also shows accumulation near $2.10–$2.30, implying that sophisticated investors may be positioning for a long-term rebound ahead of regulatory clarity.

The interplay between Ripple’s corporate treasury strategy, ETF outcomes, and whale accumulation patterns will likely dictate medium-term price direction. If spot ETFs gain approval, liquidity from traditional markets could propel XRP back into the $3.00–$3.50 zone by late Q4 2025. Without such catalysts, prices may consolidate within the $1.80–$2.40 corridor, maintaining bearish neutrality until institutional participation revives.

Verdict: Hold with Selective Accumulation Bias

At $2.21, XRP-USD sits near a critical accumulation band where downside risk is balanced by potential structural catalysts. Technical and on-chain metrics show exhaustion among sellers, while Ripple’s internal treasury moves suggest corporate confidence in the token’s resilience.

The near-term outlook remains volatile. Failure to defend $2.00 would confirm a deeper correction toward $1.50, but successful ETF approval or stabilization in global risk sentiment could rapidly shift momentum toward $2.80–$3.00.

Given the balance of risks and emerging strategic support, XRP currently fits a Hold profile with a selective accumulation bias — attractive for investors with high risk tolerance and longer time horizons anticipating that the next major regulatory milestone could mark the beginning of a broader recovery cycle for XRP-USD.

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