XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Struggles at $2.80 as ETF Frenzy Sparks Liquidations, Ripple Eyes $5–$7 Recovery

Ripple XRP-USD Faces Heavy Selling After ETF Surge

Ripple’s XRP-USD price has slipped back to $2.80, breaking below the $3 psychological barrier after suffering a 6% weekly loss. The pullback was triggered by profit-taking after the highly anticipated XRP ETF launch, which saw a record $37 million in first-day trading volume. While that debut initially pushed XRP higher, institutional investors quickly booked profits, sparking a sharp sell-off. The decline accelerated with $22 million in liquidations across long positions, where nearly 99% of leveraged longs were wiped out in a single session. With XRP’s market capitalization falling to $168 billion, the token has lost its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency, slipping to fourth place behind Ethereum.

Technical Breakdown: Critical Support Levels for XRP

From a technical standpoint, XRP is trading under its 50-day EMA at $2.90 and faces mounting resistance near $2.97, which coincides with its 20-day EMA. Momentum indicators confirm the bearish setup: the MACD has flipped into negative territory, creating a fresh bearish crossover, while the RSI dropped to 39, well below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling intensifying selling pressure. If bearish momentum persists, XRP could revisit the $2.63 support zone, a level that has held since mid-summer. Failure to defend this floor would expose the token to a steeper correction toward $2.39, with worst-case scenarios projecting a retest of $2.07 based on the descending triangle breakdown pattern.

Profit-Taking and SEC Pressure Shape Market Sentiment

While ETF approval for XRP was hailed as a milestone in regulatory clarity, it paradoxically triggered a “sell the news” cycle. Large holders who had accumulated ahead of the launch seized the chance to take profits, cutting into bullish momentum. Adding to the pressure, the SEC released updated ETF compliance guidelines that impose stricter requirements on altcoins. This regulatory overhang dampened institutional appetite, as funds reassessed their risk exposure. Combined with the broader crypto market downturn, which erased nearly 4% of total capitalization in just days, XRP has found itself struggling to hold key levels.

Liquidation Wave Exposes Weakness in Leverage-Driven Demand

The collapse in XRP price was further aggravated by cascading leveraged liquidations worth $22 million. Data indicates nearly all of this came from long positions, underscoring how speculative traders had bet heavily on a sustained breakout above $3. With over-leverage unwound, retail investors were forced to cut losses, amplifying the downward pressure. Historically, such liquidation events have marked short-term bottoms, but the magnitude of the move leaves the recovery path uncertain unless accumulation resumes above $2.75.

Whale Activity and NUPL Signal Risk of Deeper Correction

On-chain data shows XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has risen into the 0.5–0.6 range, a zone often associated with local market tops. With 94% of XRP supply in profit at current prices, the likelihood of profit-taking increases. Similar setups in 2017, 2021, and early 2025 were followed by corrections of 20–30%. If whales continue to offload into strength, support at $2.63 could crack, opening the door to a sharper fall. Still, some large wallets are reportedly defending the $2.70 zone, suggesting strategic accumulation at discounted levels.

Macro Setup: $5–$7 and Long-Term $15–$27 Targets

Despite the near-term weakness, several analysts remain bullish on XRP’s macro chart. The weekly structure continues to form a bull flag, originating from the November 2024 rally. If confirmed, this formation projects a target near $15, with longer-term Elliott Wave counts suggesting a cycle peak above $20–$27. More conservative projections see XRP reclaiming $5–$7 in the coming months, provided it breaks resistance at $3.22 and sustains volume above $3.50. Bulls argue that as institutional flows stabilize post-ETF, renewed adoption and clearer regulations could underpin the next leg higher.

Short-Term Risks Versus Long-Term Opportunity

The short-term picture remains fragile, with XRP capped under $3.00 and vulnerable to another sweep toward $2.39 or even $2.07 if broader crypto weakness persists. Yet the long-term trajectory points to a recovery above $5 once regulatory headwinds fade and ETF flows normalize. With XRP-USD at $2.80, investors face a tight risk-reward setup: defending $2.63 keeps the bullish case alive, while a break below this level could signal months of further downside.

That's TradingNEWS