XRP Price Forecast Sees $3.00 as Springboard for 27% Upside Toward $3.80 and Beyond

Xrp-Usd Grips Key Support And Gains Traction At $3.00

At $2.98, XRP-USD stages its second consecutive advance this week, holding above the critical $3.00 mark that served as resistance less than 48 hours ago. The token’s rebound off the $2.73 intraday low—an 11% recovery—reflects renewed conviction among investors after futures Open Interest steadied around $7.23 billion, up from last week’s trough of $7.05 billion. Weighted funding rates, which dipped from July’s peak of 0.0524% to 0.0090%, have begun to tick higher, signaling that long positions are once again outpacing shorts.

Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum Building

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has climbed above 50 to 56, demonstrating room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge. XRP-USD remains perched atop both its 50-day EMA at $2.79 and its 100-day EMA at $2.58, with the 200-day EMA at $2.34 poised to cushion deeper pullbacks. The falling wedge pattern that formed below $3.66 is approaching its apex, suggesting an imminent breakout. A sustained close above the wedge’s upper trendline—currently near $3.05—would validate a 27% rally toward the $3.80 target, just beneath July’s record high of $3.66.

On-Chain Flows Back Price Rebound With $19.79 Million Net Inflow

Spot market data from Coinglass reveals a $19.79 million net inflow on August 4, the strongest single-day capital injection for XRP-USD in recent weeks. Historical precedents show that similar inflows have presaged short-term tops, but with futures Open Interest recovering and funding rates edging positive, the balance of supply and demand favors further appreciation. Should speculative demand persist, XRP-USD could test the next resistance band at $3.33 before extending toward $3.66.

Institutional Outlook Hinges On Regulatory And ETF Developments

Momentum for a spot ETF approval remains a key driver. Analysts at Binance Square and CoinPedia project end-of-year targets ranging from $3.50 to $5.00, assuming favorable legal outcomes by the SEC’s August 15 deadline. More bullish voices, including Egrag Crypto and XRP unkie, envisage a $6.00–$12.00 trading range if Ripple secures regulatory clarity and global payment corridors accelerate. Moonshot forecasts place XRP-USD as high as $20.00 to $33.00, contingent on breakout confirmations and widespread adoption in cross‐border settlements.

Elliott Wave Analysis Spurs $6.00–$8.00 Medium-Term Objective

The Elliott Wave count anticipates that XRP-USD has completed its corrective Wave (2) and is entering the powerful Wave (3). A breakout above $3.80 would mark Wave (3) initiation, targeting Fibonacci extensions in the $6.00–$8.00 range. This scenario aligns with multi‐year breakout zones and requires volume confirmation at each key level to sustain the impulsive trend.

Market Structure Remains Vulnerable Without $3.05 Break

Despite emerging strength, failure to convincingly clear the $3.05–$3.10 area risks a return into the falling wedge and a test of support at $2.85 from the 30-minute VWAP. A daily close below $2.91 (200-hour EMA) would shift momentum back to sellers, exposing $2.75 and the lower wedge boundary near $2.60. Structural clarity in the coming sessions will depend on whether bulls can absorb the nearby sell orders clustered around the $3.03–$3.05 zone.

Derivatives Positioning Reflects Cautious Accumulation

XRP-USD futures Open Interest, after sliding 35% from the July 18 peak of $10.94 billion, has stabilized above $7.00 billion. The weighted funding rate’s rebound above zero underscores traders’ willingness to hold longs despite macro risks, including rising US tariffs and Fed rate‐hold decisions. If funding rates continue rising toward the 0.02% mark, institutional and retail appetites for leveraged positions are likely to increase, amplifying upward moves.

Macro Forces And Geopolitics Cast Long-Term Shadows

Broader crypto market sentiment remains sensitive to external catalysts. The recent Fed pause at 4.25%–4.50% and President Trump’s new tariffs due August 7 have injected risk‐off volatility, which could throttle XRP-USD’s advance if global equities falter. Conversely, a renewed risk‐on environment—spurred by potential US trade concessions or a dovish Fed pivot—would bolster XRP-USD’s recovery and support its bid toward $4.50, a key barrier for medium-term bulls.

Consensus Forecasts Span $2.00–$33.00, But Reality Lies In Momentum

Over 20 analyst projections span a broad spectrum:

Cautious Views: $2.00–$3.50, hinging on protracted legal wrangling and muted institutional demand
Mid-Range: $1.80–$4.50, driven by moderate adoption and episodic technical breakouts
Optimistic: $6.00–$12.00, contingent on ETF approval and Ripple network integrations
Ultra-Bullish: $20.00–$33.00, assuming XRP-USD dominance in cross-border rails and global payment corridors

Blending these, the most credible short-term target remains $3.80, with a probability‐weighted range of $3.00–$4.20 over the next four weeks.

Strategic View: Bullish Above $3.05, Bearish Below $2.91

Current positioning suggests a bullish tilt as long as daily closes exceed $3.05. A break above $3.33–$3.66 would confirm a medium-term uptrend, opening the path to $4.00 and beyond. Conversely, a drop below $2.91 would invalidate the wedge thesis, exposing $2.75 and potentially $2.60. Risk‐reward assessments thus favor long entries on dips toward $2.91, with profit‐taking staged near $3.80 and $4.20.

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