XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD at $3.04 as Spot ETF Approval Sparks Forecasts Toward $5

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast – September 2025 Analysis

XRP-USD Breaks Above $3.00 With Custody Expansion Under MiCA

Ripple’s token XRP-USD has reclaimed the $3.00 level, trading at $3.04 in Friday’s session. The breakout coincides with Ripple’s new partnership with BBVA to provide institutional custody services under Europe’s MiCA regulatory framework. This deal is particularly significant because it cements Ripple as one of the few tokens in the eurozone operating under clear guidelines. Resistance at $3.10 remains the immediate barrier, but a decisive close above this mark could clear a path toward $3.25 and eventually $3.50, levels not seen since July’s high at $3.66.

ETF Approval Brings Institutional Inflows Into Focus

The most impactful event is the U.S. launch of the REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF, the first exchange-traded fund tied directly to XRP. It started trading on September 12, 2025, after clearing the SEC’s 75-day review. ETF accessibility fundamentally alters XRP’s liquidity profile, similar to what happened when Bitcoin ETFs drove billions in inflows. Analysts expect near-term price implications in the $3.30–$4.00 range, with bullish targets stretching to $5.00 if inflows sustain. In parallel, the Franklin Templeton ETF filing has been delayed until November 14, leaving more potential catalysts for later this year.

On-Chain Data Shows Accumulation Amid Exchange Reserves Surge

Blockchain flows provide a mixed picture. Net inflows of $4.52 million entered exchanges on September 12, pushing balances to their highest level in a year at 3.66 billion XRP on Binance. This could imply future sell pressure. Yet whales accumulated over 340 million XRP in recent weeks, and wallets holding between 10M–100M XRP increased their balances by 2.1%. The divergence between rising reserves and whale accumulation reflects a tug-of-war: speculative traders may lock in profits at resistance, while long-term holders prepare for ETF-driven upside.

Derivatives Market Points to Strong Bullish Bias

Futures activity highlights renewed confidence. Open interest averaged $8.51 billion, up from $7.37 billion last week, though still below July’s $10.9 billion peak. The funding rate climbed to 0.0107%, signaling traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. This demand for leverage reinforces bullish momentum, though it leaves the market exposed if resistance at $3.10–$3.14 rejects buyers. A sustained move beyond $3.35 would confirm a breakout and open technical targets at $3.65 and $4.50.

Macro Backdrop and Regulatory Tailwinds

Macroeconomic conditions favor XRP’s momentum. U.S. jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest since 2021, which strengthens expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A weaker dollar traditionally supports risk assets, and XRP has benefited from the broad crypto rebound, with the Altcoin Season Index at 78. Ripple’s pursuit of a U.S. national banking license is another powerful catalyst. Approval would position Ripple as a regulated trust bank, enabling deeper institutional adoption and bolstering the case for XRP-USD as a settlement layer in traditional finance.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Support has shifted upward, with $2.92–$2.94 now acting as immediate defense. A deeper retracement would target $2.75, a zone repeatedly defended throughout August. On the upside, a breakout above $3.10–$3.14 resistance could unlock $3.35 in the short term, with medium-term momentum aiming for $3.65–$4.00. The MACD buy signal remains intact since Monday, and the RSI at 55 shows room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge.

XRP-USD Long-Term Forecast

Most analyst forecasts for September average between $2.80 and $3.20, reflecting volatility around the $3.00 pivot. However, ETF-driven inflows and the potential banking license have lifted long-term expectations. If both catalysts materialize, XRP could climb toward $5.00 by year-end, with some speculative models suggesting $8–$10 in an extended bull case. Conversely, failure to hold $2.74 support risks a correction toward $2.50, a level where the 200-day EMA is clustered.

Investment View – Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Given the combination of ETF approval, MiCA-backed custody expansion, and whale accumulation, the outlook for XRP-USD skews bullish. While short-term volatility is likely, the structural shift in institutional accessibility sets XRP apart from other altcoins. At $3.04, the token remains well below its July high of $3.66 and far from speculative targets above $5. With these catalysts in play, the decision is clear: XRP is a Buy, with near-term targets at $3.35–$4.00 and a year-end bullish case toward $5.00+.

That's TradingNEWS