XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Dips to $2.82 After $130M Whale Exodus and Ripple ETF Delay

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces $130M Whale Sell-Off, ETF Delay, and Bahrain Expansion — Traders Eye $2.77 as Critical Pivot

Ripple (XRP-USD) has entered a decisive phase as price action consolidates near $2.82, marking a 4.18% weekly decline. The move follows a heavy round of whale distribution exceeding $130 million and an increase in profit-taking across the altcoin space. XRP now sits below its 100-day EMA at $2.85, while intraday volatility remains elevated amid weakening open interest and growing regulatory uncertainty tied to ETF approval delays. Despite the correction, institutional flows and technical structure suggest the market is approaching an inflection zone that could determine XRP’s next macro move.

Institutional Distribution Intensifies: $130 Million Unloaded in One Week

Data from on-chain trackers confirms that whales holding 10–100 million XRP have offloaded approximately 20 million tokens within 24 hours—roughly $56 million in value at the current market price. Long-term holders contributed another 25.9 million XRP worth $72.5 million, bringing total selling pressure to nearly $130 million for the week. This reduction dropped large-wallet balances from 7.95 billion to 7.93 billion XRP, marking the steepest one-week outflow since mid-August.

The liquidation coincides with a 4.7% price decline, implying that large holders are trimming exposure ahead of major regulatory events and risk-off sentiment across crypto markets. XRP’s open interest fell from $9.09 billion to $8.47 billion, suggesting traders are closing leveraged positions rather than adding fresh longs—a sign of diminishing short-term conviction.

Technical Outlook: $2.77 Emerges as the Line Between Continuation and Breakdown

The 12-hour XRP/USD chart reveals a descending triangle formation, underscoring sustained bearish pressure below the $3.00 resistance zone. Despite the downturn, a hidden bullish divergence has appeared—where price records higher lows while the RSI posts lower lows—typically indicating waning downside momentum.

The key pivot remains $2.77, which acted as support on September 27. A confirmed rebound above this level could fuel a move toward $2.95–$3.09, zones that previously served as both resistance and intraday liquidity traps. However, failure to defend $2.77 could accelerate a drawdown toward $2.69, aligning with the 200-day EMA at $2.64, where a stronger institutional bid cluster remains visible on the URPD metric (2.5 billion XRP acquired between $2.70–$2.80).

ETF Delay and SEC Uncertainty Stall Institutional Momentum

The broader catalyst behind XRP’s muted performance remains the U.S. SEC’s delay in ruling on six pending XRP ETF applications, including filings by Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares. The regulatory stall, attributed partly to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, has weighed on near-term sentiment. Analysts expect a formal decision by late October, with Bloomberg ETF strategists placing the odds of at least one approval at 95%—a move that could unlock significant institutional demand.

Still, the delay dampens momentum at a time when BNB surpassed XRP in total market capitalization, shifting the altcoin dominance narrative. XRP’s market cap now stands at $172.18 billion, compared to BNB’s $1,242 per token, illustrating the competitive reshuffle in large-cap crypto rankings.

Ripple’s Expansion in Bahrain Strengthens Global Utility Footprint

While traders focus on price swings, Ripple continues to extend its regulatory and commercial reach. The company announced a strategic partnership with Bahrain Fintech Bay (BFB) to advance blockchain-based financial services within the Gulf region. Building on Ripple’s DFSA license in Dubai, the initiative aims to accelerate cross-border payment prototypes, stablecoin infrastructure, and tokenization pilots across the Middle East.

According to Suzy Al Zeerah, CFO of BFB, the partnership “bridges global innovators with Bahrain’s financial ecosystem,” setting a foundation for adoption that could enhance XRP’s transactional volume over time. Ripple’s Middle East footprint now spans the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, reinforcing its position as the dominant blockchain remittance network in the region.

Remittix (RTX) Emerges as a Challenger in PayFi Infrastructure

Ripple’s long-standing dominance in cross-border settlement faces new competition from emerging PayFi tokens such as Remittix (RTX), currently priced at $0.113 after raising $27.2 million through a presale of 676.5 million tokens. The project, audited and verified by CertiK, is ranked the #1 prelaunch token for security credibility, introducing real-world crypto-to-bank transfers across 30+ countries.

Remittix’s beta wallet, supporting 40+ cryptocurrencies and 30 fiat pairs, is already live and integrated with instant FX conversion—offering tangible functionality that few prelaunch projects achieve. With upcoming CEX listings on BitMart and LBank, RTX aims to capture retail and institutional flows seeking stable, utility-driven exposure.

While XRP relies heavily on macro regulation and institutional integration, Remittix’s deflationary model and utility-first design appeal to freelancers and international earners. Its 15% USDT referral program and $250,000 community giveaway have fueled early traction. Analysts now frame RTX not merely as a speculative rival but as a complementary infrastructure asset in the evolving PayFi ecosystem.

Market Context: Volume Surge Despite Risk-Off Bias

XRP traded $7.13 billion in 24-hour volume, a 10% increase from the prior session, signaling strong two-way interest despite overall bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index sits at 41.58, while the Commodity Channel Index at –77.17 underscores oversold but stable momentum. The MACD maintains a bearish crossover, with the blue signal line remaining below its red counterpart, confirming near-term weakness.

However, the long-term 200-day EMA continues to flash a Buy signal, suggesting resilience in higher timeframes. Traders eye the $3.08–$3.12 zone for confirmation of any breakout attempt.

Macro Drivers: Fed Policy, Liquidity Rotation, and Cross-Market Correlations

The broader macro backdrop adds weight to XRP’s volatility. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains firm near 99.50, limiting upside in risk assets. At the same time, Fed officials’ hints of two potential rate cuts by Q1 2026 have improved medium-term liquidity expectations. Should these cuts materialize, XRP could benefit from revived institutional rotation into higher-beta digital assets, similar to early 2024 conditions when the token surged above $3.50.

Comparative Outlook: XRP Consolidates Leadership Amid PayFi Evolution

Despite temporary outflows, XRP retains leadership in blockchain-based remittance networks, processing billions through RippleNet corridors every month. Yet the new generation of PayFi competitors, led by Remittix, represents a structural evolution of the same thesis—real-time fiat-to-crypto remittance without legacy dependencies. This intersection of innovation underscores how utility tokens may increasingly coexist rather than directly compete, broadening the global payments landscape.

Verdict: Hold — Bullish Potential Above $2.77, Limited Downside Below

XRP remains fundamentally strong but technically fragile. The near-term setup hinges on defending $2.77, where institutional absorption remains visible. A bounce above $3.09 could reinitiate upside momentum toward $3.50, while a sustained breakdown risks testing $2.64 support.

Given improving fundamentals—ETF momentum, Middle East expansion, and long-term whale retention despite temporary profit-taking—the data supports a Hold stance with a bullish medium-term bias. Traders should monitor ETF headlines and on-chain accumulation; confirmation above $3.12 could reignite a rally toward $4.00–$5.00 into 2026.