XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Drops 7% to $1.99 as Institutional Selling Signal Deepening Weakness

XRP-USD Sharp Decline Highlights Market Fragility

Ripple’s native token XRP (XRP-USD) experienced one of its steepest monthly drops on December 1, 2025, plunging 7% to $1.99 after repeated failures to hold the $2.19–$2.29 resistance zone, a range that previously acted as key support. The session low at $2.01 confirmed short-term capitulation as intraday volume surged over $3.85 billion, up 92.7%, signaling heavy distribution rather than accumulation. This sharp decline pushed XRP below both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming a confirmed bearish crossover (death cross) from late November, a technical event that amplifies downside momentum across most major assets.

Technical Breakdown and Fibonacci Projections Signal Deeper Risk

The supply pin bar observed last Friday indicated demand exhaustion. That candlestick formation, coupled with failure at $2.29, set the stage for cascading liquidations. Fibonacci retracement levels pinpoint $1.90, $1.61, and $1.25 as successive support targets, aligning with prior reversal zones from April 2025 and early 2024. RSI readings fell below 45, confirming bearish momentum, while MACD divergence suggests only limited rebound potential unless XRP reclaims $2.19 on sustained volume. The immediate battle zone remains $2.05–$2.01, with traders eyeing $1.77–$1.80 as the next psychological floor.

Institutional Flows and ETF Inflows Fail to Halt Sell Pressure

Despite $640 million in XRP ETF inflows during November, institutional selling outweighed accumulation. Large-lot trades across derivatives desks triggered accelerated declines as ETF-related buying lacked the volume depth to offset risk reduction. CoinDesk data confirmed that volume surged to 309 million XRP, nearly 4.6× above the daily average, marking clear institutional exit flows. These exits came despite broad crypto optimism tied to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts (with 85% odds of a 25 bps cut at the December 10 FOMC). Analysts interpret this as a decoupling between macro optimism and short-term technical exhaustion in XRP.

Macro Environment and Cross-Market Correlation Intensify Pressure

The drop in XRP coincided with Bitcoin’s slide below $90,000 and Ethereum’s decline under $2,750, both of which weakened sentiment across altcoins. Macro traders point to diminishing risk appetite as the U.S. PCE inflation rate remains above 2.9%, pressuring liquidity-sensitive assets. With the crypto fear & greed index at 25, risk aversion dominates. Broader portfolio de-risking led to leveraged unwind across spot and perpetual markets, compounding XRP’s losses despite ongoing ETFs by 21Shares and Franklin Templeton, which logged combined inflows above $164 million post-launch.

On-Chain Distribution and Holder Behavior Turn Negative

Glassnode’s HODL Waves reveal reduced long-term conviction among 1–3-year holders, with balances declining from 9.72% to 8.51% for 1–2-year wallets and 14.80% to 14.25% for 2–3-year wallets. This translates to roughly 1.5 billion XRP in net selling pressure over the past month. Meanwhile, active addresses hover around 19,200, down over 95% from June’s 500,000 peak, underscoring weak network engagement. Long-term investors are thus absorbing profits or reallocating capital, diminishing the structural bid that previously supported XRP near $2.40.

Resistance Clusters Limit Recovery Attempts

Cost-basis heatmaps indicate dense supply congestion between $2.445 and $2.460, encompassing 1.75 billion XRP held by traders who bought into prior rallies. Breaking above $2.46 is critical to shift sentiment; however, price rejection continues near that range, mirroring April’s reversal. Technical models show that even if XRP closes above $2.46, it must sustain momentum toward $2.60–$2.61, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and 50% mean-reversion zone. Without such breakout confirmation, further upside remains speculative.

Forecast Range: Diverging Scenarios and Conflicting Narratives

Analysts remain divided. Bearish projections derived from Fibonacci extensions indicate $1.90 → $1.61 → $1.25 as sequential decline zones, consistent with the “death cross” narrative. In contrast, Standard Chartered forecasts a recovery toward $5.50 by end-2025 and potentially $12.50 by 2028—representing 509% upside from the current $2.05 price. Crypto Bull highlights a possible “cup-and-handle” pattern with $7 as a breakout target, while former Goldman Sachs analyst Dom Kwok speculates on an extreme $1,000 long-term theoretical value, implying over 48,000% upside. This vast divergence—ranging from $1.25 to $1,000—demonstrates unprecedented market polarization.

Market Sentiment and Liquidity Context

XRP’s market capitalization stands at $123.87 billion, while daily traded volume nears $3.85 billion, confirming heightened volatility. Despite these volumes, liquidity remains thin across major exchanges as spreads widen under stress. Open interest in XRP futures dropped 59% from 1.7 billion XRP in October to 0.7 billion, marking a risk reset among leveraged funds. Yet whale wallets added 150 million XRP since November 25, suggesting selective accumulation at perceived lows—though insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Bullish Catalysts Still Possible Amid Weakness

Analysts like Simon Peters (eToro) remain cautiously optimistic, citing the high probability (85%) of a Fed rate cut as a potential short-term rebound trigger. Should risk sentiment improve, a daily close above $2.459 could propel XRP toward $2.60–$2.61, signaling the first valid bullish reversal since October. Sustained ETF inflows beyond $700 million and stronger transaction volume on RippleNet corridors could reinforce that move. However, absent confirmation of those drivers, XRP remains trapped in consolidation.

Verdict: Hold With Bearish Bias Until $2.46 Breakout

XRP’s structural position remains defensive. The token trades below key EMAs, with RSI still under equilibrium, while on-chain and ETF dynamics point to redistribution rather than accumulation. Price action between $2.05 and $2.46 defines the December trading corridor. Unless XRP closes firmly above $2.46 with expanding volume, the bias stays bearish toward $1.80. For now, Hold with a bearish tilt best reflects the data—acknowledging long-term upside potential but respecting near-term technical and sentiment-driven weakness.

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