XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Targets $3 as XRP ETF Inflows Hit $660M and Exchange Supply Crashes to Multi-Year Lows

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Critical Inflection As Price Holds Near $2.20 And ETF Inflows Exceed $660 Million

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) trades around $2.19–$2.21, consolidating after a volatile month in which the token slipped 13% in November before rebounding strongly on institutional inflows. The market cap sits near $132 billion, securing XRP’s place as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency globally. With ETF inflows topping $660 million, XRP enters December in a critical position—caught between growing institutional demand and persistent long-term holder selling pressure.

Institutional Demand Accelerates As Spot XRP ETFs Absorb Supply

The launch of multiple spot XRP ETFs in the U.S.—including those by Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise—has injected powerful institutional capital into the market. Within two weeks, these ETFs attracted nearly $666.6 million in net inflows, removing vast amounts of XRP from circulation. Large financial firms have begun acquiring XRP through regulated custodians, moving billions of tokens into cold storage and effectively constraining exchange liquidity. This ETF-driven accumulation coincides with major wallet activity, as addresses holding more than one billion XRP added approximately 150 million tokens, equal to $330 million in fresh capital since late November.

Exchange Supply Collapse Sparks Supply Shock Narrative

XRP reserves on major exchanges such as Binance have dropped to multi-year lows—now hovering around 2.7 billion tokens after a sharp $640 million reduction in available supply. This contraction has produced the most significant exchange outflow since mid-2022. Analysts call this the start of a “supply-throttle” phase, where ETF managers, institutional buyers, and whales compete for a limited pool of liquid XRP. The result is a structural supply squeeze that could amplify price reactions once bullish catalysts align.

Price Structure Stabilizes Above Key Support Zones

Technically, XRP continues to defend its $2.17–$2.20 support area, which has served as the anchor for recent recoveries. A firm rebound from $1.772 in late November confirmed a double-bottom structure that now defines the bullish base. The 20-day EMA sits near $2.2026, acting as a pivot line for short-term traders, while the RSI near 47–52 indicates balanced momentum. Above, the immediate resistance lies between $2.45 and $2.50, marking the upper boundary of a dense cost-basis cluster. A sustained breakout above $2.459 could trigger a run toward $2.60–$2.61, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and aligning with ETF accumulation pressure.

Whale Behavior And On-Chain Dynamics Show Divergence

While institutional inflows have been overwhelmingly positive, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (1–3 years) have reduced balances from 24.5% to 22.7% of total circulating supply. These reductions—approximately 1.2 billion XRP sold over the past month—partially offset the institutional absorption. However, the HODL Waves distribution suggests this rotation of ownership from aging retail wallets to ETF custodians could strengthen XRP’s long-term base, concentrating the token in stronger hands. The cost basis heatmap confirms heavy positioning between $2.445–$2.460, reinforcing why the market continues to stall below $2.46 despite repeated attempts to break higher.

Macro And Liquidity Factors Add Volatility To Ripple’s Setup

Broader market dynamics play a crucial role. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hovering near 103.5 and expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q1 2026 have softened dollar strength, indirectly favoring risk assets like XRP. Meanwhile, global liquidity is rising again, with Bitcoin above $91,000 and Ethereum near $3,000, improving sentiment across altcoins. Nonetheless, short-term whale selling and leveraged liquidations have created intermittent headwinds, capping XRP’s rallies and producing intraday reversals of 4–6%.

Technical Compression Points Toward December Breakout

XRP’s daily chart shows a tightening triangle formation, with converging trendlines suggesting a breakout is imminent. The pair’s higher-lows pattern between $2.00 and $2.17 supports a constructive setup, and Doji-style candles over the last week confirm trader indecision ahead of a decisive move. A daily close above $2.46 could confirm the breakout, setting targets at $2.60, $2.78, and potentially $3.00, which coincides with the psychological ceiling and the next major resistance zone. If the breakout fails, a fallback toward $2.12–$2.00 remains possible, but that zone currently aligns with strong demand clusters from ETF wallets.

Comparative Outlook: Ripple’s Position Among Institutional Assets

XRP’s ETF momentum now mirrors early Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) ETF cycles, where capital inflows preceded months of accumulation and subsequent rallies. XRP’s inflow rate has outpaced Ethereum’s by 12% month-on-month, underscoring faster institutional adoption. Global investors are increasingly viewing XRP not only as a payments token but as a regulated digital settlement instrument—especially after the SEC settlement and ISO 20022 integration milestones earlier in 2025. This structural credibility is drawing capital from both Asia and Europe, with Switzerland, Singapore, and the UAE among the top three ETF subscriber regions.

Sentiment And Long-Term Price Forecast

Market sentiment remains moderately bullish but cautious. Analysts expect a short-term trading range of $2.15–$2.60, with the bias shifting upward as ETF inflows continue. Should XRP clear $2.61 on a weekly close, the next upside targets expand toward $3.00 in early 2026 and potentially $5.50 by late 2026, assuming sustained ETF demand and continued supply contraction. On the downside, a failure to hold $2.15 could drag XRP back to $1.80, though that remains a less probable outcome under the current accumulation trend.

Verdict: XRP (XRP-USD) Remains Bullish With $3 Target In Sight

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) demonstrates one of the strongest institutional accumulation patterns in the crypto sector, underpinned by nearly $900 million in ETF inflows and collapsing exchange supply. With support at $2.17–$2.20 and breakout resistance at $2.46–$2.60, XRP’s December setup leans decisively bullish. If the token closes above $2.60, the next key target stands at $3.00, marking a potential 35% upside from current levels.

Verdict: Buy XRP (XRP-USD) — bullish bias toward $3.00 short-term and $5.50 long-term, supported by ETF inflows, exchange supply collapse, and strengthening macro tailwinds.

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