XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Plunges 40% to $2.13 as Ripple XRP ETF Fatigue

Ripple (XRP-USD) Battles Heavy Selling As Price Nears $2.00 And Market Confidence Fades

Ripple’s native token XRP (XRP-USD) continues its steep retracement, trading around $2.13, down more than 40% from July’s $3.66 high. Despite record ETF inflows and major institutional exposure, selling pressure remains relentless. The token’s technical structure has deteriorated sharply since early November, when the 50-day exponential moving average crossed below the 200-day, confirming a full death cross formation. This breakdown has dragged XRP below its crucial $2.20–$2.30 support zone, converting that range into immediate resistance. The next key price areas are $2.00, $1.90, and $1.61, with the ultimate bearish target sitting at $1.25, signaling a potential 50% decline from current levels if momentum worsens.

Bearish Structure Deepens As Technical Breakdown Accelerates

The daily chart shows XRP locked inside a clear descending channel, with every rebound losing strength faster than the last. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains weak at 38, showing no sign of reversal, while MACD continues flashing a sell signal for the fifth consecutive day. Both indicators confirm that sellers remain in control. For any recovery attempt, XRP would need to reclaim the $2.41–$2.46 zone, where the short-term moving averages intersect. Until that happens, the risk bias stays heavily tilted downward, with momentum favoring further capitulation.

Whales Offload Positions As ETF Inflows Fail To Stabilize Price

Massive whale distribution has offset all of the optimism that followed the recent wave of XRP ETF launches, including Canary Capital’s XRPC and the Amplify XRPM Option Income ETF. Within forty-eight hours of the first ETF debut on November 13, large holders dumped over 200 million XRP, erasing initial institutional inflows. The XRPC ETF, which opened at $26.63, fell nearly 11% by its third trading day. This underscores that speculative enthusiasm quickly gave way to profit-taking. Data from CoinGlass shows total open interest in XRP futures sliding from $4.17 billion to $3.77 billion in less than two weeks — a clear sign of shrinking market participation and declining confidence among leveraged traders.

Long-Term Holders Shift From Denial To Anxiety Phase

On-chain analytics from Glassnode indicate a decisive shift in sentiment among long-term investors. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric shows the market moving from the “denial” phase into “anxiety,” reflecting widespread concern after several months of distribution. Long-term holders have sharply accelerated outflows, liquidating nearly 95 million XRP in just two days between November 16 and November 18, a 49% jump from prior weeks. The percentage of XRP supply in profit has plunged to 58.5%, the lowest level since late 2024, leaving 41.5% of supply underwater. Such positioning suggests that many investors who accumulated near $3.00 are now capitulating, driving self-reinforcing sell pressure into already thin liquidity.

Retail Traders Retreat As Volume And Liquidity Collapse

Retail sentiment has weakened in parallel. Wallets holding fewer than one hundred tokens have been exiting positions rapidly since the October liquidation event, when the market saw $19 billion in crypto assets wiped out within a single day. Over the last twenty-four hours, XRP trading volume dropped 35%, narrowing its daily range between $2.13 and $2.24. The lack of conviction is visible in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which has remained below its trendline since November 12. As institutional whales sell and retail traders retreat, XRP’s liquidity depth continues to erode, magnifying every price swing.

ETF Expansion Brings Structural Progress But No Price Floor

The new Amplify XRPM 36% Option Income ETF was launched to provide yield exposure through covered-call strategies, aiming to deliver 3% monthly income. Despite the innovative structure and interest from income-focused investors, the ETF’s impact on the underlying token has been negligible. Combined XRP ETF inflows now exceed $268 million, yet the token continues to underperform, unable to hold the $2.20 threshold. Analysts argue that without consistent spot demand and broader crypto market stability, ETF-driven liquidity will remain trapped in secondary instruments instead of lifting XRP-USD directly.

Ripple’s DeFi Ambitions And Native Staking Proposal Signal Long-Term Shift

Amid the bearish technical backdrop, Ripple developers are laying the groundwork for structural evolution within the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz and RippleX researcher J. Ayo Akinyele have initiated discussions on introducing native staking and on-chain yield mechanisms. These would transform XRPL from a purely payments-oriented network into a programmable platform supporting real-world asset tokenization, DeFi liquidity pools, and staking-based security. This expansion aligns with Ripple’s push to position XRP as a liquidity engine for decentralized finance, directly competing with Ethereum (ETH-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) in functionality rather than branding alone.

Macro Conditions Compound Pressure Across The Crypto Complex

The macro backdrop amplifies XRP’s vulnerability. A hawkish Federal Reserve stance and slowing liquidity are pressuring all risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $91,000, down 13% month-over-month, while Ethereum (ETH-USD) has fallen to $2,916, both confirming death crosses on daily charts. The October deleveraging event triggered a domino effect across the market, wiping out $1 trillion in crypto market capitalization. Analysts like Niraj Pant of Ritual AI warn that liquidity shocks of this scale typically take months to resolve, and XRP remains disproportionately exposed due to its concentration among a few large holders and its limited derivatives hedge depth.

Market Psychology Shifts Toward Capitulation As Fear Dominates

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 24/100, marking its lowest reading since the 2024 bear phase. Market sentiment has shifted from denial to outright fear, a pattern often preceding temporary relief rallies but also indicative of exhaustion. The emotional cycle now resembles early 2023, where overleveraged traders and short-term holders were forced to liquidate at structural lows. However, this time the difference lies in institutional exposure — ETFs and regulated products now create delayed reactions to market stress, meaning capitulation phases could stretch longer before recovery.

Analyst Outlook Shows Deep Division Between Short-Term Pain And Long-Term Promise

The divergence among analysts is stark. Some, including veteran trader MasterBTC, forecast a fall toward $1.00, representing full capitulation and testing the yearly minimum. Others, such as Ali Martinez, see potential stabilization if $2.15 holds, with next resistance around $2.40–$2.70. Technical strategists like CasiTrades highlight $2.03 as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement pivot, while Coinpedia maintains a year-end projection of $5.05 tied to sustained ETF adoption and renewed institutional inflows. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Bank projects a three-year trajectory toward $8.00, emphasizing XRP’s institutional role in cross-border payments once volatility subsides.

Current Technical Landscape Suggests Fragile Support At $2.07–$2.10

At present, XRP’s daily structure remains fragile. The token is pinned between $2.07 and $2.10, where minor rebounds have failed to break through resistance. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages hover near $2.46 and $2.58, respectively — key levels that must be reclaimed to restore short-term bullish momentum. A decisive breakdown below $2.00 could confirm an extended correction toward $1.77 or $1.61, while a sustained push above $2.41 would mark the first credible reversal in over a month.

Final Market Stance On XRP-USD

The technical and on-chain data converge on one clear message: XRP remains in a vulnerable phase, balancing between structural bearishness and early long-term rebuilding. The ecosystem’s fundamentals — growing institutional access via ETFs and the proposed XRPL staking layer — create genuine recovery potential, but price action continues to mirror fear and exhaustion. With XRP-USD trading near $2.13, the near-term outlook stays bearish, while the long-term trajectory leans constructive once volatility normalizes and the macro backdrop steadies. The appropriate stance at current levels is Sell for traders, Hold for long-term investors, with potential downside toward $1.61 and upside capped at $3.00 pending a confirmed breakout above $2.58.

That's TradingNEWS