XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Slides Below $2 as Sellers Target the $1.80–$1.90 Zone

XRP-USD Price Snapshot Around $1.87–$1.92 After Losing $2.00 Support

As of Dec. 18, 2025, XRP-USD trades in the $1.87–$1.92 band, with intraday swings roughly between $1.83 and $1.98, and a market cap near $113B, placing it around the fifth-largest crypto asset. Daily performance is fluctuating between about -1.5% and -3.2%, while 24-hour volume is in the $3.5B–$3.9B range, already down around 7% versus the prior day. Market dominance has fallen to roughly 3.87%, a 90-day low, confirming that capital is rotating out of XRP into other majors. The key structural change is simple: the long-held $2.00 level is no longer acting as a reliable floor, and the market is now treating it as broken support rather than a safe anchor for buyers.

Macro Forces Pushing XRP-USD Lower: JGB Yields, Carry Trade Unwind, And Rotation Into Bitcoin

The current pressure on XRP-USD is driven mainly by global macro conditions rather than Ripple-specific news. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield is trading around 1.97–1.98%, high enough to threaten yen carry trades that fund risk assets worldwide, including crypto. As yen funding becomes less attractive, leveraged players de-risk, and high-beta assets such as XRP are typically sold first. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed around $457M of daily inflows while XRP’s 24-hour trading volume fell about 7.2% to roughly $3.9B, highlighting a clear risk-off rotation into BTC and away from altcoins. Gold has held up better in this environment, reinforcing the current regime where crypto, including XRP-USD, behaves like a risk asset rather than a defensive macro hedge.

Technical Structure Of XRP-USD After The $3.66 Peak And The Clean Break Below $2.00

From a structural standpoint, XRP-USD has shifted from a trending bull phase into a confirmed corrective phase. The 2024 low sits near $0.43, the 2025 high peaked around $3.66, and price now trades near $1.90, well below 50% of that rally. Using that leg, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement stands near $1.63, while the 78.6% level clusters around $1.83, and both are now in play. For most of 2025, $2.00 acted as a strong support where dips were quickly reversed within one or two daily candles. The recent behavior is different: price fell below $2.00 on Sunday and has stayed there since, converting that level from a defensive line into a broken floor. The chart shows a sequence of lower highs following the $3.66 top and a clear loss of $2.00, validating a mature correction rather than a minor pullback and opening the path toward deeper retracement zones if sellers maintain control.

Trend And Momentum For XRP-USD: Moving Averages, Oversold Signals, And Short-Term Bias

Trend proxies and oscillators confirm that the short-term bias in XRP-USD remains bearish, even as oversold signals begin to emerge. The 10-day EMA sits around $1.96 and currently caps price as dynamic resistance. The 30-day SMA near $2.06 reinforces that bears dominate the short-term tape, while the 200-day SMA around $2.59 highlights lingering weakness on the longer horizon. Momentum indicators are aligned with that picture. The 14-day RSI is around 37–38, reflecting bearish momentum but not yet a deeply washed-out condition. MACD remains negative, with the histogram printing below zero and signaling active downside pressure. ADX near 21 indicates a modest but still valid downtrend rather than a flat market. At the same time, Stochastic %K near the mid-teens and a CCI reading around -150 illustrate a stretched downside move that often precedes a tactical bounce. The combination is straightforward: structure and moving averages are bearish, while oscillators argue that the short-term selloff is already extended and vulnerable to countertrend rallies as soon as sellers relax.

Pattern Risk On XRP-USD: Double-Top Breakdown Versus 50-Week Slingshot

Two opposing pattern narratives now frame XRP-USD’s medium-term risk profile. The first, a bearish interpretation, focuses on a potential double-top structure, with two major 2025 peaks and a neckline near $2.00. Under that view, the current sustained break below $2.00 activates the pattern and opens a path toward the $1.00 zone over time, implying roughly 50% downside from the neckline. That scenario aligns with the broad downtrend and the failure to reclaim $2.00. The second, more constructive narrative looks at XRP’s historical behavior around the 50-week simple moving average. In 2018, after breaking below the 50-week SMA and spending about 70 days underneath it, XRP bottomed near $0.245 and then rallied more than 200% to about $0.764. In late 2021, a roughly 49-day period below the 50-week SMA preceded a rebound of about 70%. In 2024, XRP stayed under the 50-week SMA around 84 days, then exploded roughly 850% higher to the $3.66 peak in July 2025. The current stretch is approximately 66 days below the 50-week SMA, which, if history rhymes, could preface a strong upside phase once the correction completes. A repeat of an 857% surge from a recent low near $1.81 would project prices near $17.30, while even a more conservative 428% rally would imply levels around $9.55. The market must resolve this conflict: either the double-top drives the pair toward the $1.00 region, or the 50-week SMA pattern repeats and sets up a new impulsive leg higher.

Key Tactical Levels For XRP-USD: $1.83, $1.63, $1.96, $2.27, And $2.60

The important tactical levels for XRP-USD are clearly defined and now dominate intraday positioning decisions. On the downside, the $1.85–$1.90 band acts as the active base zone where selling pressure is fading and early accumulation attempts appear. Just below, $1.83 coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and functions as a critical final near-term support. A decisive break of $1.83 would shift focus toward $1.63, the 61.8% retracement of the $0.43 to $3.66 advance, which represents the primary structural target for a deeper leg in the ongoing correction. On the upside, the first meaningful pivot is $1.96, which approximates the 10-day EMA; reclaiming that level would signal that bears are losing immediate control. The next barrier is $2.00 itself, now a major psychological and technical wall that previously acted as a floor. Beyond that, a sustained move through the $2.20–$2.30 zone would mark a genuine bounce and the first step in repairing the trend, with $2.27, the last failed swing high, serving as a crucial confirmation line. If momentum extends, the next higher resistance sits near $2.60, while a full normalization of bullish conditions would require a return to the $3.30–$3.66 region where prior supply absorbed the previous rally. For now, price is clearly trapped between the $1.83–$1.90 support band and the $1.96–$2.00 resistance band, and whoever wins this range will dictate the next move.

ETF Flows, Structured Products, And Institutional Demand Around XRP-USD

The institutional and product-structure story around XRP-USD is notably stronger than the short-term price action suggests. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have already attracted more than $1.0–$1.14B in net inflows since their mid-November launch, with 32 consecutive sessions of positive flows and about $18.99M of net inflows recorded on Dec. 17 alone. Those ETF holdings still represent under 1% of XRP’s roughly $113B market capitalization, so they are material but not yet dominant. The launch pipeline remains active as well, with products such as the 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) entering the market and targeting investors who want XRP exposure through a regulated wrapper rather than direct token custody. In parallel, a $300M initiative from VivoPower and Lean Ventures aimed at acquiring Ripple Labs equity for South Korean qualified and institutional investors is being marketed as indirect exposure linked to approximately 450M XRP, valued near $900M at current prices. VivoPower expects fee and performance revenue from its role rather than deploying large balance sheet capital and has previously referenced XRP-linked treasury strategies and the use of RLUSD. The overall picture is clear: the financialization of XRP-USD is advancing via spot ETFs, equity-linked structures, and treasury usage. However, because these vehicles still control only a small fraction of total supply and because their recent inflow momentum has cooled, they cannot fully offset macro-driven de-risking in the short term when global risk appetite turns lower.

Long-Term Scenarios For XRP-USD: From Potential 50% Drawdown To Possible 850% Rebound

Long-term scenario analysis for XRP-USD shows an unusually wide corridor of outcomes that is already visible in the data. On the bearish side, the confirmed break under $2.00 as a double-top neckline, combined with downward-sloping 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, supports a path where price eventually trades toward the $1.63 Fibonacci support and, in a more extreme extension, tests the $1.00 region as a full double-top objective. That would mean roughly a 14% decline to $1.63 and almost 50% downside to $1.00 versus current levels around $1.90. On the bullish side, the 50-week SMA pattern that has preceded previous explosive phases remains on the table. An 857% rally from a corrective low near $1.81, in line with the 2024–2025 precedent, implies a potential target near $17.30, while a more conservative 428% expansion still produces prices in the $9.50 region. Additional medium-term projections from various analysts suggest levels around $5.05 by late 2025, $6–$6.50 if XRP’s market cap tracks closer to Ethereum’s current territory, approximately $26.50 by 2030 under strong adoption assumptions, and a broad $97.50–$179 corridor by 2040 if XRP becomes an entrenched global payments rail. The present reality is more modest: XRP-USD trades below half of its recent $3.66 peak, is attempting to base around $1.85–$1.90, and must still survive the risk of a move to $1.63 before any of the higher targets become credible.

Sentiment, Regulation, And Cross-Asset Flows Shaping XRP-USD Risk Perception

Beyond pure price and technicals, sentiment and policy also shape how investors allocate to XRP-USD. On the regulatory front, recent SEC staff statements on crypto asset custody under Rule 15c3-3 refine how broker-dealers should handle access, control, and on-ledger transfer mechanics, improving the long-term infrastructure for tokenized exposure even if XRP’s specific classification remains its own debate. Large exchanges and platforms continue to add high-profile political and regulatory figures to advisory councils, indicating that the industry is actively seeking to influence and adapt to policy frameworks in multiple jurisdictions. Markets tend to price regulation and policy developments at the sector level, so even general custody clarity and advisory structures can lift or depress sentiment across XRP, BTC, ETH, and other majors together. At the same time, cross-asset flows remain tightly anchored to U.S. inflation data and rate expectations. Softer CPI prints can quickly reprice risk assets higher and support rebounds across crypto, while hotter data or renewed rate fears tend to reinforce the current rotation into Bitcoin and away from altcoins. XRP-USD sits squarely inside that macro matrix: regardless of the fundamental story, the token cannot ignore the global risk-on versus risk-off dial.

Risk–Reward Assessment For XRP-USD Near $1.90: Tactical Hold, High-Risk Long-Term Buy

From current levels around $1.90, the near-term risk–reward profile on XRP-USD is asymmetrical but volatile. On the downside, a clean test of $1.83 implies only about 3–4% additional decline, while a move to $1.63 represents roughly 14% downside, and a full double-top extension toward $1.00 would translate into close to 47–50% loss from current prices. On the upside, a recovery to the $2.20–$2.30 resistance band offers around 16–21% potential, a push to $2.60 implies about 37% gains, and a return to $3.30 yields roughly 74% upside. Beyond that, structural scenarios targeting $6–$6.50, $9.50, or even above $17 emerge if the 50-week SMA pattern and institutional adoption thesis play out over several years. Combining these factors with the confirmed short-term downtrend, the loss of $2.00, oversold oscillators, more than $1B of cumulative ETF inflows, indirect institutional structures around Ripple equity, and persistent rotation into Bitcoin, the stance is clear. For short-term traders, XRP-USD remains a tactical Hold until price at least reclaims $1.96–$2.00 and then breaks above $2.27, which would indicate that bears are losing control and the downtrend is being repaired. For multi-year, high-risk investors who can tolerate a potential slide toward $1.63 or even $1.00, the combination of deep correction, growing institutional plumbing, and historically explosive rebounds from similar configurations makes XRP-USD a high-risk Buy in the $1.85–$1.95 region, provided position size is kept strictly proportional to the very real downside documented by the current technical and macro backdrop.

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