Institutional Capital Eyes Double-Digit Potential as Accumulation Deepens
While retail traders wait on ETF clarity, institutional capital continues to quietly expand. Data from Santiment and Coinglass reveals a $4.2 million net outflow from exchanges on October 8, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution. Historically, such steady outflows during low-volatility phases precede strong directional moves.
Teucrium CEO Sal Gilbertie fueled renewed optimism, labeling XRP “the coin with the strongest real-world use case,” citing its cross-border payments network and integration with SWIFT alternatives under non-disclosure agreements. He added that Ripple’s ecosystem could play a “decisive role” in reshaping global settlements as legacy financial systems falter. This coincides with S&P Global’s plan to include XRP within the upcoming S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, which blends cryptocurrencies and blockchain-related equities. The index’s launch is widely viewed as another institutional bridge, paving the way for regulated exposure through tokenized financial instruments.
On-Chain Data Reinforces Gradual Accumulation Trend
On-chain metrics confirm that investors are repositioning for a structural breakout. Exchange-held XRP has declined 2.6% over the last 30 days, while active addresses remain above 142,000 daily, marking a 9% month-over-month increase. The RSI (44.5) reflects mild bearish momentum but not capitulation, while the MACD histogram nears a neutral crossover — often a prelude to volatility spikes.
Network flows show consistent $20–$30 million in daily on-chain settlements, while whale wallets (holding over 10 million XRP) have expanded holdings by 4.3% since mid-September. Despite recent price softness, total market cap remains above $163 billion, maintaining XRP’s fifth position globally. Analysts emphasize that as long as XRP sustains above $2.80, the mid-term accumulation base remains intact, suggesting patient reentry from funds positioning ahead of ETF-driven inflows.
CLS Mining and the Rise of Passive Yield Models During Consolidation
Amid XRP’s price consolidation, platforms such as CLS Mining have gained attention by offering AI-powered mining contracts denominated in XRP. During this sideways trading period, CLS Mining reports daily passive income potential of up to $6,700 USD, allowing investors to capitalize on network computing capacity without active trading exposure.
Recent net inflows of $27.61 million into XRP mining-linked protocols hint at a transition phase from speculation to yield generation. While XRP remains structurally bullish, investors increasingly turn to staking and mining strategies to maintain returns during price stagnation. The availability of zero-cost entry bonuses ($15 for new accounts) and flexible short-cycle contracts (7–45 days) enhances liquidity circulation in the ecosystem, indirectly supporting on-chain transaction volumes and stabilizing price floors near $2.85.
Technical Indicators Define Critical Support and Resistance Layers
Technically, XRP’s chart structure is compressing between major EMAs, with short-term support at $2.80–$2.85, secondary at $2.63, and deep structural support around $2.40, which aligns with the 200-day SMA ($2.55). The RSI at 44.6 remains below midline, suggesting lingering caution, while the ADX at 19.2 signals consolidation rather than breakdown.
Bulls must reclaim $3.00 to confirm breakout momentum, followed by $3.20 and $3.40 as upside continuation targets. If this threshold is breached with volume exceeding $1.2 billion daily turnover, XRP could accelerate toward $3.60 within weeks. Conversely, failure to defend $2.80 could trigger a correction toward $2.63, and in extreme bearish conditions, the $2.55–$2.40 region. However, the broader technical map still supports medium-term recovery, with historical data showing V-shaped rebounds whenever XRP’s RSI dips below 45 during ETF anticipation cycles.
Market Psychology and ETF Liquidity Dynamics
The market’s sentiment toward XRP remains delicately balanced between frustration and conviction. The delayed ETF approvals under the government shutdown reflect political gridlock, not fundamental weakness. Institutional research desks estimate that once approval resumes, first-month inflows could reach $5–$10 billion, translating to a price impact of up to $12 per XRP, given the historic 54.4x multiplier seen in prior ETF market cycles.
Canary Capital projects a $544 billion increase in XRP’s market capitalization if such inflows materialize, an event that could elevate XRP to double-digit territory faster than consensus expects. For now, traders view the $2.80 level as the dividing line between healthy consolidation and structural breakdown.
Short-Term Scenarios: Compression Before Expansion
In the immediate term, the price pattern remains a textbook example of compression before expansion. With volatility dropping to 2.3% and open interest declining 4.1% week-over-week, XRP appears to be coiling for a directional move. Liquidity clusters show dense buy orders near $2.82–$2.85, while major liquidation zones rest above $3.05. Such setups historically precede 10–15% volatility breakouts.
Should bulls secure a daily close above $2.95, confirmation volume exceeding $1.4 billion could ignite a fresh breakout sequence targeting $3.20–$3.40. Conversely, a loss of $2.80 support could accelerate profit-taking, pulling the price briefly toward $2.63 before accumulation resumes.
TradingNews Verdict: Ripple (XRP-USD) – BUY with Accumulation Bias, Target $3.60 Short-Term / $12 Post-ETF
Based on comprehensive data — ETF positioning, institutional accumulation, stable outflows, and technical compression — Ripple (XRP-USD) remains structurally bullish despite temporary pressure from regulatory delays. The base between $2.80–$2.85 provides strong accumulation support, while a breakout above $3.00 would confirm bullish continuation toward $3.40–$3.60.
With ETF flows projected to resume after the U.S. shutdown and institutional wallets increasing holdings by over $1.7 billion since August, XRP’s long-term trajectory remains intact. TradingNews assigns XRP-USD: BUY, with short-term targets at $3.60 and post-ETF expansion targets at $10–$12, contingent on ETF approval and sustained institutional inflows.
