XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Recovers to $2.44 After $19B Liquidation and 440M Whale Selloff

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Extreme Volatility After Tariff Shock, ETF Delays, and $19B Liquidation — Market Rebuilds Above $2.30

The Ripple (XRP-USD) market has been thrown into one of its most turbulent phases since 2023. Within just 72 hours, XRP moved from an intraday high of $2.84 to lows near $1.53, marking a 46% drawdown that erased nearly $60 billion in market capitalization. The collapse followed Donald Trump’s declaration of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, a move that ignited global risk-off sentiment and triggered a cascade of liquidations across cryptocurrencies, totaling more than $19 billion in a single trading day. Despite the chaos, XRP has since stabilized near $2.35–$2.44, finding support just above its key Fibonacci retracement zone at $2.40, as buyers cautiously return.

The Shock Wave: From $2.80 Strength to a $1.53 Panic Low

At the beginning of the week, XRP/USD was consolidating above $2.79, building strength for what traders expected to be a breakout above the $3.00–$3.10 ceiling. The optimism ended abruptly following the U.S. tariff announcement that sent equities, commodities, and crypto into synchronized decline. Within hours, XRP crashed nearly $1.27, bottoming at $1.53 before staging a sharp rebound back to the $2.30 region. The selloff was accompanied by a record $19.31 billion liquidation event, one of the largest in digital asset history. Data from CoinGlass shows that long traders lost $16.7 billion, while short sellers absorbed another $2.4 billion, reflecting extreme market imbalance.

Traders described the event as an “XRP Black Swan,” a defining moment in the coin’s trading history. Market analyst Chad Steingraber highlighted that XRP’s one-day liquidation tally of $707 million was the largest on record for the token. The plunge took XRP down over 41% intraday, before partially recovering as institutional bids began to stabilize the order book.

Whale Selling Accelerates the Collapse — $1.25B in Outflows Recorded

Adding to the market turmoil, blockchain analytics confirm that major whale wallets (1M–10M XRP range) sold roughly 440 million tokens over the past month, equivalent to $1.25 billion in value. These large-scale liquidations coincided with the U.S. government shutdown that delayed SEC decisions on multiple XRP-spot ETF applications from major institutions including BlackRock. With SEC staffing limited, the expected ETF review window between October 18 and November 14 was pushed indefinitely, cooling retail sentiment and triggering secondary selling pressure.

Daily outflows from whale addresses peaked at $50 million per day, shrinking their cumulative holdings to $6.51 billion, according to on-chain data. This aggressive offloading aligned with the tariff-driven crash, deepening fear among retail traders.

Ripple (XRP) Price Action and Technical Breakdown

The technical structure of XRP/USD broke decisively during the selloff. A multi-month symmetrical triangle that had contained price action since July was violated after XRP failed to sustain momentum above $2.70. Stop-loss clusters triggered below $2.63, accelerating the plunge toward $1.20–$1.50, levels last tested before the summer rally. On the daily chart, XRP sliced below its 100-day simple moving average ($2.63), with the RSI plunging to 26.9, the deepest oversold reading since the March 2023 correction.

Despite the technical damage, the rebound from the $1.5 region prevented a full structural breakdown. The ascending green trendline connecting early-2025 higher lows remains intact. If this foundation holds, the broader bullish structure could survive and enable a continuation pattern targeting $3.00 in the medium term. A close above $2.80 would be the first confirmation of that recovery sequence.

ETF Delays Compound Risk Sentiment — Regulatory Clarity Still the Missing Catalyst

The U.S. government shutdown hit at the worst possible time for Ripple (XRP). The SEC’s deferral of seven XRP ETF applications delayed what could have been a major bullish driver. Traders had anticipated that a greenlight for BlackRock’s iShares XRP Trust or other pending funds would unlock institutional inflows. The absence of news and frozen filings undercut confidence precisely when liquidity evaporated across crypto. Betting markets now expect the shutdown to last up to 25 days, extending uncertainty into November.

Analysts note that XRP remains heavily tethered to Bitcoin’s trend. As long as BTC trades under $112,000, sentiment across altcoins, including XRP, remains vulnerable. Once Bitcoin reclaims $115,000–$118,000, analysts project that XRP could rebound toward $3.30, with ETF clarity serving as a potential ignition point.

Ripple (XRP) Volume Surge: $18 Billion Traded Amid Panic

Despite the crash, XRP saw extraordinary liquidity, signaling both capitulation and institutional absorption. Over $18 billion in XRP traded within 24 hours, far exceeding its typical $6.8–$7 billion average. The largest concentration of buying originated from Swiss-based exchanges, accounting for more than 22% of global XRP volume during the event. European institutional desks appear to have accumulated aggressively near the $2.00–$2.20 zone, suggesting some confidence that the correction had overshot fair value.

At its peak before the crash, XRP had risen 500% from early-year levels, touching $2.84, its strongest print since 2023. The combination of speculative positioning, whale selling, and ETF delays simply overloaded the market.

Ripple (XRP) Market Structure: Fibonacci Zone at $2.40–$2.50 Remains Pivotal

Currently, XRP trades between $2.35 and $2.44, holding the critical Fibonacci retracement band that has defined every prior rebound since the July rally. Each dip below this zone has been met with immediate buying activity, highlighting strong structural support. Traders view $2.83–$2.90 as the breakout trigger, with upside targets at $3.30, $3.65, and an extended move toward $4.50 if sentiment turns risk-on.

Technical analysts point to a potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation developing on the 4-hour chart, with a neckline near $2.80. A confirmed breakout from that level could reestablish a short-term bullish trend. However, failure to hold $2.30 would open the door to $2.02, and then $1.77, where XRP last consolidated before its explosive July ascent.

The “Black Swan” Effect: Ripple’s Defining Crash and Institutional Resilience

The events of October 10 will likely be remembered as a pivotal turning point in Ripple’s price history. In a single session, XRP lost over $1.27, part of a $900 billion global crypto market wipeout. Yet even amid the devastation, large institutional investors stepped in. On-chain flow data showed that addresses tagged to European funds and Asian market makers absorbed millions of XRP as smaller traders capitulated.

XRP closed the day at $2.35, down 12.13%, but far above its panic low of $1.53, signaling a successful defense of the higher-low structure. Market capitalization now stands near $142.7 billion, keeping XRP ranked fifth globally among cryptocurrencies. The stabilization, though fragile, indicates the asset’s underlying demand remains alive despite extreme volatility.

Ripple (XRP) Correlation with Bitcoin and Macro Volatility

The macro environment continues to dictate Ripple’s price direction. The Trump tariff announcement sparked a simultaneous selloff in global indices — the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Nasdaq 2.4%, and crude oil plunged to $58.90 per barrel. That cross-asset panic fed into leveraged liquidations across crypto markets. Bitcoin’s 10% one-day decline dragged the entire digital asset complex lower. Historically, when Bitcoin stabilizes after such moves, XRP tends to lag by three to five days before recovering.

In this context, traders are watching for a Bitcoin stabilization above $115,000, which would likely spark a broader rotation back into altcoins. Until then, the correlation remains negative for risk assets like XRP, keeping upside potential capped near resistance zones.

Ripple (XRP) Outlook — Recovery Possible, But Patience Required

Short-term momentum for XRP/USD remains fragile but not broken. The asset’s RSI near 27 reflects deeply oversold conditions that historically precede rebounds. A successful daily close above $2.70 would validate renewed buying strength and target the $3.00–$3.30 region. Should broader market sentiment recover following the resumption of SEC activity and easing macro headlines, Ripple could reenter a strong accumulation phase before the year-end.

The most optimistic scenario — one where Bitcoin resumes its uptrend and ETF approvals are granted — could push XRP toward $4.00–$4.50, reestablishing the July rally trajectory. In contrast, another delay in ETF reviews or further escalation in tariff rhetoric could retest support near $2.00, though institutional interest is likely to absorb deeper dips.

Final Assessment on Ripple (XRP-USD): Tactical Buy Zone Between $2.00–$2.30 Amid Oversold Conditions

Ripple’s dramatic collapse underscores both the fragility and resilience of digital assets in macro stress events. The coin has survived its steepest liquidation ever, weathered $1.25 billion in whale outflows, and still maintained a top-five global ranking. Its ability to stabilize above $2.30 despite $19B in sector-wide liquidations demonstrates deep liquidity and persistent investor interest.

Based on current metrics, XRP-USD remains in a technical accumulation zone, with asymmetric upside potential into Q4 2025. The next major catalysts — ETF reactivation and Bitcoin’s stabilization above $115,000 — could reignite bullish momentum. Until then, volatility remains elevated, but structure remains intact.

Verdict: BUY on deep dips (accumulation zone $2.00–$2.30), HOLD if above $2.70, short-term target $3.30, extended target $4.50 if ETF approvals resume and macro sentiment stabilizes.

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