XRP Rebounds: XRPI and XRPR ETFs Rip Higher as $1.30 Support Holds

Ripple XRP ecosystem: XRP-USD, XRP ETF XRPI and XRPR reprice higher together

XRPI ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) and XRPR ETF price action: aggressive rebound but still deep drawdown

XRPI ETF closed at $8.37, up 8.28% on the day with a +$0.64 move from a previous close of $7.73. Intraday, XRPI ETF traded between $8.06–$8.42, with average volume around 533.08K shares versus a 52-week range of $6.50–$23.53. That means the product is trading only about 28–29% of its 52-week high despite today’s strong print. The bounce is forceful in percentage terms but still sits inside a long, heavy drawdown structure where earlier cycles pushed the ETF almost three times higher than current levels.
XRPR ETF (REX Osprey XRP ETF) tracked the same move with slightly higher beta, finishing at $11.98, up 7.44% or +$0.83 from a previous close of $11.15. The intraday range stretched from $11.62–$12.06, compared with a 52-week band of $9.50–$25.99 and average volume of just 16.41K units. So while today’s move added almost a full dollar, XRPR ETF still trades at roughly 46% of its own 52-week high. Structurally, both XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF are repricing off the lows, but the historical ranges remind you there is still more than 100% upside back to cycle peaks and also a long record of volatility that can erase these daily gains quickly.

XRP-USD spot structure: price stabilizes around $1.30–$1.40 but remains below key moving averages

Spot XRP-USD has been oscillating around the $1.30–$1.40 zone. One desk cites $1.38 on Wednesday, up over 5% from a recent weekly low near $1.31, while another read shows $1.36 with a defense of the $1.30 support level and a local weekly high at $1.42. That bounce coincides with a broader crypto recovery where Bitcoin reclaimed roughly $67,000 and risk appetite improved after a difficult tariff-driven stretch. Despite the recovery, the spot chart remains technically damaged: price sits below the clustered 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs on the daily frame, all of them sloping down and capping the upside between roughly $1.63–$2.08. A long-term descending trendline drawn from the record high near $3.66 is still intact and projects a heavier resistance area around $2.05. Momentum has only started to turn: one daily MACD read has just crossed slightly positive above the signal line, while RSI is quoted around 39–46, which is weak but no longer oversold. Net message: the market has stopped bleeding at $1.30–$1.33, but it has not flipped to a clean uptrend; any move through $1.40–$1.47 still has to overcome trendline and EMA supply.

XRP ETF flows and derivatives positioning: ETF inflows resume while futures open interest collapses from $10.94B to $2.24B

On the ETF side, tracking services show spot XRP ETFs accumulating roughly $1.23B in cumulative net inflows since launch, with total assets under management fluctuating around $875–$981M depending on price at the measurement point. A recent session recorded about $3M in net daily inflows, entirely attributed to one XRP ETF product, while flows in other digital-asset ETFs have been far weaker, with some BTC products showing roughly $1.3B in net outflows year-to-date. That spread indicates capital rotation inside the listed-crypto complex rather than a pure “all risk off” liquidation.
In parallel, on the derivatives side the picture is much more washed out. XRP futures open interest has slid from a record around $10.94B in July down to roughly $2.24B, with a daily step down from $2.29B the prior day and $2.40B roughly two days earlier. That is close to an 80% reduction in outstanding futures exposure from the peak. The combination of $1.23B of ETF inflows versus a $8.7B+ collapse in futures open interest tells you the leveraged crowd has largely been flushed, while the listed-fund channel is quietly accumulating on net. The ETF tapes are supportive but not spectacular; the derivatives tape is still defensive and points to a market where aggressive long-leverage is not yet back.

Realized losses and risk clean-up: $1.93B locked in at the lows shifts XRP ownership to stronger hands

One major venue highlighted roughly $1.93B in realized losses for XRP-USD in mid-February, calculated as coins sold below their on-chain cost basis. Functionally, this means a large cohort of short-term participants crystallized losses as price slid earlier in the month. That kind of clean-out tends to remove weaker balance sheets from the structure and hand coins to buyers with a longer horizon. Combined with the drop in open interest from $10.94B to $2.24B, the ecosystem is now far less leveraged and far less dependent on momentum-chasing flows. It does not guarantee a straight-line recovery, but it materially lowers the probability of forced-liquidation cascades on every pullback because much less size is sitting on margin.

Retail spot behavior versus institutional XRP ETF demand: 212% volume spike and the seed of a supply squeeze

On the spot side, one large exchange reports that retail XRP purchases jumped 212% over the February 23–24 window, with buy activity more than 2x sell volume in that period. That surge came after the mid-February stress, not before it, and therefore reflects fresh demand stepping into weakness rather than late buying at the highs. The same platform links this spike in retail activity to “steady” XRP ETF inflows since the ETF complex launched on November 14, with around $1.1B of net assets accumulated and only five negative-flow days recorded.
The narrative from that flow mix is straightforward. As futures leverage and speculative interest shrink, XRP ETF products quietly add coins, and retail spot demand ramps aggressively into the $1.30–$1.40 band. That combination can choke the amount of freely tradable XRP if it persists. The same source sketches a scenario where a sustained break above $1.40–$1.47 could drive XRP-USD toward $1.60–$1.80 in the near term, assuming volume confirms the move and ETF inflows or regulatory catalysts align. That zone lines up with the resistance cluster around $1.63 and the underside of the declining EMAs, which would be a natural first upside target in any squeeze.

Low ETF flows in some reads, but the structure is still supportive for XRP ETFs XRPI and XRPR

A separate dataset is more cautious, flagging “subdued” activity in XRP ETF products, with no new flows recorded since Friday in one slice of time and assets under management marked at $875M instead of $981M. The difference largely comes from marking AUM at slightly different underlying prices and from looking at a short window with no new inflows. Even under that conservative framing, the cumulative figure sits at $1.23B, not zero, and the absence of flows over a couple of sessions tells you more about temporary hesitation around tariffs and macro headlines than about structural disgust with XRP ETF exposure. For XRPI ETF at $8.37 and XRPR ETF at $11.98, the key fact is that listed products still hold close to a billion dollars of XRP-linked assets at a time when futures exposure has collapsed by almost 80%. That tilts the structure toward unlevered, long-horizon capital, which is exactly what listed vehicles are designed to attract.

Technical map for XRP-USD: key levels at $1.30, $1.25, $1.40–$1.47, $1.60–$1.80 and $2.05–$2.08

From a pure chart perspective, XRP-USD is stuck between first-line support and a dense resistance ceiling. Immediate support sits around $1.33–$1.30 where repeated tests have held. Below that, the October 10 low near $1.25 is the next obvious area; a daily close under $1.25 re-opens lower lows and keeps the long-term downtrend fully intact. On the upside, short-term sellers are defending the $1.40 level, which lines up with recent reaction highs. If price can print and hold daily closes above $1.40–$1.47, the door opens toward the broader resistance band around $1.60–$1.80, cited by one desk as a natural destination for a squeeze if ETF flows and spot volume continue to firm. Above that band, the 200-day EMA and trendline confluence around $2.05–$2.08 becomes the more strategic barrier; a sustained move through that zone would mark a genuine regime change instead of just another bounce inside a multi-month downtrend. Until then, XRP-USD is trading a corrective upswing inside a bearish long-term structure.

How XRP-USD dynamics transmit into XRP ETF XRPI and XRPR pricing

Both XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF are designed to give listed-market access to XRP-USD with daily liquidity and without direct wallet management. At $1.36–$1.38 for spot XRP, XRPI ETF at $8.37 implies a rough price ratio in the 6x area, while XRPR ETF at $11.98 sits closer to 8–9x versus spot. The exact mechanics depend on share creation baskets, fees and any cash buffers, but the point is clear: both ETFs amplify underlying XRP moves dollar-for-dollar in nominal terms. A 10% move in XRP-USD from $1.36 toward $1.50 would ordinarily push XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF higher by roughly the same percentage, translating into moves of about $0.80–$1.00 per share if correlations hold. The historical ranges show that when XRP-USD trades near its extremes, the ETFs swing far harder: XRPI ETF has a 52-week band of $6.50–$23.53, and XRPR ETF has $9.50–$25.99, indicating that past up-cycles have delivered more than 150% upside from levels close to today’s prints but also equally brutal drawdowns on the way down.

Macro and cross-asset backdrop: risk appetite improves while large caps like Apple and Bitcoin hold firm

This XRP move is not happening in isolation. Large-cap US equities such as Apple Inc. are holding firm; one snapshot shows Apple around $273.95, up $1.81 or 0.67% on the session. At the same time, Bitcoin pushing back through roughly $67,000 after earlier tariff-driven selling signals that the risk complex is willing to take exposure again as markets digest a 10%, 150-day temporary tariff framework and the Supreme Court ruling that rolled back an earlier set of duties. Crypto-linked assets tend to move hardest when macro anxiety fades at the margin. The fact that XRP-USD, XRPI ETF, XRPR ETF, Bitcoin and high-beta equities are all stabilizing on the same day strengthens the view that this is a coordinated risk-on impulse, not an idiosyncratic XRP headline alone.

Short-term risks: weak retail interest, falling futures OI and heavy technical overhead remain real headwinds

The bullish elements do not erase the outstanding risks. Retail engagement in XRP-USD remains weak outside brief bursts; the same datasets that highlight a 212% spike in buys over February 23–24 also describe an environment of “declining retail interest” compared with the July peak, when futures open interest was $10.94B and prices printed the $3.66 all-time high. Today’s $2.24B in open interest shows far smaller participation, and a flat or shrinking OI while price grinds up often means rallies rely on spot demand alone. On the ETF side, the $3M daily inflow is supportive but modest relative to the $1.23B cumulative figure and the multi-billion-dollar capitalization of the broader market. A couple of days with zero flows, as seen in one window, quickly stall momentum if spot liquidity does not step in. Technically, trading under all three major EMAs with a long-term trendline still sloping down from $3.66 leaves XRP-USD vulnerable to fast reversals if $1.30 fails. For XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF, the year ranges—$6.50–$23.53 and $9.50–$25.99 respectively—are a reminder that both execution risk and volatility risk are material; buying a 7–8% up day into heavy resistance is never a low-risk entry.

Final stance on XRP-USD, XRP ETF XRPI and XRPR: constructive but not euphoric, skewed to Buy with strict risk levels

Structurally, the complex looks better than it did in mid-February. XRP-USD is defending $1.30–$1.33, ETF assets stand around $875–$981M with $1.23B of cumulative inflows, XRPI ETF trades at $8.37 and XRPR ETF at $11.98 after strong single-day gains, and roughly $1.93B of realized losses plus an 80% collapse in futures open interest have flushed much of the fragile leverage out of the system. The upside roadmap is clear: hold above $1.30, break and close over $1.40–$1.47, then push toward $1.60–$1.80 with the possibility of testing the $2.05–$2.08 confluence if macro conditions and ETF demand remain supportive.
Against that, the ongoing downtrend on the higher-timeframe chart, the falling EMAs, the still-soft retail participation and the history of deep drawdowns in XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF argue against chasing strength blindly after an 8–9% daily spike. Putting it together, the risk-reward profile from current levels is moderately bullish with a clear invalidation band. The stance here is Buy on XRP-USD, XRPI ETF and XRPR ETF with $1.25–$1.30 as the line where the thesis is broken on spot and the equivalent proportional levels on the ETFs. Above those supports, the combination of cleaned-up positioning, steady ETF assets and an improving macro tape justifies leaning into the upside rather than fading it.

That's TradingNEWS