XRP-USD Holds $2.73 as Ripple ETF Launches Stall: XRP ETFs Drop Sharply Amid SEC Freeze

Ripple (XRP-USD) Gains Momentum as ETF Approvals Edge Closer Amid U.S. Shutdown Delays

Ripple’s token XRP-USD traded near $2.73 while ETF-linked products showed heavy volatility, with the REX-Osprey™ XRP ETF (XRPR) closing at $22.07 on October 10 before dropping to $19.65 (-10.97%) in after-hours. Meanwhile, the XRP ETF (XRPI) settled at $16.02, down 4.36%, reflecting cautious sentiment as the SEC delays decision-making due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The ETF holds $198.82 million in net assets and mirrors exposure through managed XRP futures contracts and high-quality collateral, placing it within the “Digital Assets” category under Volatility Shares LLC. Despite temporary pressure, institutional readiness and ETF filings signal a tightening window before potential approval.

SEC Filings Drive Anticipation for XRP ETF Launches

Multiple issuers, including Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and Franklin Templeton, have submitted amended S-1 filings for XRP ETFs. Grayscale’s ETF updated its ticker to GXRP, while Franklin Templeton and Canary introduced XRPZ and XRPC, respectively. With fees around 0.50%, these filings align XRP’s ETF structure with broader institutional expectations for cost efficiency. The filings come under a unique regulatory environment where the SEC halted 19b-4 processes, pivoting to approve funds under “generic listing standards.” Despite the administrative freeze, experts like Nate Geraci from NovaDius Wealth argue that this batch of filings “signals imminent readiness.” The absence of trading fees in the latest filings, combined with explicit tickers, shows technical finalization before launch once the SEC resumes full operations.

Market Structure: ETFs and Futures Redefine XRP Exposure

Institutional access to XRP through ETFs and futures products like XRPI is reshaping liquidity patterns. The XRPI fund has maintained $198.82 million AUM with 38.38% exposure in U.S. government obligations as collateral. Although it recorded a 0.00% YTD return versus the 14.79% category average, the ETF remains key for investors anticipating direct XRP exposure within regulated environments. The product’s design around CFTC-registered XRP futures differentiates it from traditional crypto spot vehicles, providing controlled volatility for institutional desks seeking hedge-based exposure. XRP’s ecosystem expansion, coupled with ETFs’ approval potential, represents a structural shift where regulated vehicles could absorb retail market turbulence.

Ripple Ecosystem Growth Strengthens ETF Narrative

Ripple’s financial ecosystem continues to evolve with the RLUSD stablecoin, reaching a $788.51 million market cap, reinforcing confidence in Ripple’s payment infrastructure. This milestone underlines adoption momentum within decentralized payment systems as ETF anticipation grows. ETF-linked liquidity channels—particularly Grayscale GXRP and Canary XRPC—stand to benefit from Ripple’s network maturity, which integrates banking and cross-border payment efficiency. Analysts highlight that this dual exposure to institutional ETFs and Ripple’s on-chain assets enhances XRP’s valuation resilience, especially in the face of increasing token circulation now at 3.5 billion.

Supply Expansion Meets Institutional Demand

The XRP supply mechanism remains a critical factor influencing price dynamics. With 35 billion tokens locked in escrow and 1 billion XRP released monthly, the system imposes structural supply pressure. Exchange balances rising from 2.85 to 3.5 billion tokens highlight potential dilution risks. Yet, strong institutional absorption via ETF accumulation and derivative demand has prevented a deeper correction. The current support zone around $2.70–$2.75 continues to attract bullish defense, marking a vital line between accumulation and distribution. Sustained buying near these levels implies fund flows are gradually offsetting the release mechanism, a necessary equilibrium before any sustainable move toward the $5 target projected by some institutional models for 2025.

Technical Formation and Investor Positioning

Technically, XRP forms a descending triangle, suggesting ongoing accumulation before the next move. Maintaining the $2.70–$2.75 support could serve as a launchpad toward $3.50 in the short term and $5.00 by year-end 2025 if ETF approvals proceed. A break below $2.70 could expose $2.20, signaling institutional fatigue. Trading volume spikes in the XRPR ETF, averaging 476,000 daily shares, confirm heightened speculative positioning ahead of SEC clarity. Such activity mirrors pre-approval trends seen in previous Bitcoin ETF cycles, implying strong market anticipation despite macro uncertainty.

Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown and Approval Delays

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to freeze SEC operations, pausing all non-critical regulatory reviews, including crypto ETF approvals. The missed October deadlines for Grayscale (Oct.18), 21Shares (Oct.19), and Canary Capital (Oct.23) filings postponed possible launches into November. Market confidence remains tempered but not broken. Crypto analysts cite 37% probability that the shutdown becomes the longest in U.S. history, potentially extending beyond 35 days. Despite the delay, ETF issuers’ operational persistence—updating filings, refining tickers, and confirming custodianship arrangements—suggests that once the SEC resumes, approvals could roll out in clusters, unlocking significant capital inflows into XRP-linked products.

Market Sentiment and Price Outlook for XRP

Ripple’s price consolidation near $2.73 contrasts with ETF-linked volatility, as institutions await clarity. Should approvals move forward post-shutdown, inflows could reignite momentum toward $5.00, validating accumulation patterns seen across on-chain data. Conversely, extended delays could suppress optimism, holding XRP between $2.50–$3.00 through Q4. The ETF market capitalization, led by XRPI ($198.82M) and XRPR ($22.07 close), positions XRP as one of the fastest-growing institutional crypto assets by product diversity. The balance between supply expansion and ETF absorption will dictate direction into year-end.

Verdict: Based on structural strength, ETF momentum, and resilient demand near $2.70, Ripple (XRP-USD) maintains a bullish bias with a Buy rating, targeting $5.00 by 2025, contingent on ETF approvals resuming post-shutdown.

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