XRP-USD Price Tests Crucial $2.65 Support Ahead of Regulatory Milestones

XRP-USD Faces Mounting Selling Pressure From Whales

After surging to a fresh yearly peak of $3.65 in mid-July, XRP-USD has surrendered nearly 20 percent in three weeks, stumbling back to the $2.80 area. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that whale wallets have offloaded more than 640 million XRP since July 9, equivalent to roughly $340 million at current prices. This exodus coincides with the 90-day moving average of whale netflows turning sharply negative, signaling sustained distribution that has accelerated the descent. The drop through the critical $3.10–$3.00 resistance zone only after a brief retest of the $2.66–$2.80 support funnel underscores the shift from broad-based accumulation to profit-taking among large holders, undermining the modest rebound attempts seen on lower timeframes.

Key Technical Barriers And Support Zones Define Short-Term Range

Technically, XRP-USD is now carving out a trading corridor between $2.65 and $3.10. The $2.65 pivot aligns with both the quarterly VWAP and the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the July high, making it the fulcrum of the network’s next move. A clear hold above $2.65 preserves the uptrend narrative and could anchor consolidation before another assault on the $3.40 liquidity pool. However, a decisive break under this level risks a “full pump retrace” back toward $2.00, as warned by prominent chart analysts. On the upper flank, the $3.00 to $3.10 band is reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $3.04 and the 200-day EMA at $3.08, placing material hurdles to any relief rally. Oscillators add to the caution: the daily RSI dips below 45, and the MACD histogram has flipped negative, confirming that momentum has dissipated and that sellers remain firmly in control until proven otherwise.

Macro Catalysts: Regulatory Clarity And ETF Approvals On Horizon

Beyond pure price mechanics, XRP-USD’s outlook hinges on several high-impact events unfolding in August and beyond. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to clarify XRP’s regulatory status by mid-month, a development with the power to validate or undermine years of legal overhang. Concurrently, multiple issuers—including Grayscale, 21Shares and Bitwise—have pending applications for spot XRP ETFs, with Bloomberg terminal data placing their odds of approval above 90 percent this year. An affirmative SEC ruling and ETF greenlight would unleash institutional capital flows, likely catalyzing a return to $4.00 and beyond. Conversely, any delay or negative guidance could exacerbate the current correction and prolong the rangebound market environment.

Institutional Uptake And On-Chain Indicators Strengthen Long-Term Prospects

Institutional infrastructure around XRP has matured rapidly despite recent weakness. The CME Group launched XRP futures this quarter, granting professional traders regulated access to derivatives. In Asia, BDACS’s live custody offering now serves Korean institutions seeking secure storage. Meanwhile, RippleNet’s corridor for cross-border settlements has expanded to over 300 financial institutions, 40 percent of which actively use XRP for liquidity. On-chain metrics beyond whale flows also paint a constructive backdrop: exchange reserves of XRP have declined 12 percent since June, hinting at a transfer from trading venues into cold storage. Though price action may stagger, this gradual attrition in circulating supply coupled with rising network utility underpins a bullish medium-term thesis, especially if global adoption accelerates.

Synthesizing Signals: Momentum, Liquidation, And Sentiment Dynamics

Overlaying these fundamentals and technical contours, risk measures reveal further nuance. The Tom DeMark Sequential on the 3-day chart has just flashed a sell signal, historically marking local peaks and presaging short-term pullbacks. Funding rates across major perpetual swaps remain slightly positive, indicating that longs still pay shorts, but a drop in open interest by 8 percent this week suggests waning conviction. The MVRV ratio’s recent “death cross”—where market value dips below realized value—has predicted downside in prior cycles, pointing to a contraction of unrealized profit horizons and potential capitulation. Taken together, these quantitative alerts argue for heightened vigilance: any spike in leverage or coordinated liquidations could push XRP toward the lower boundary of its range before the buyer base reasserts itself.

Outlook And Positioning

Despite these headwinds, XRP-USD still presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile. A sustained hold above $2.65 and a violation of the $3.10 resistance with uptick in volume would validate a re-entry into bullish regime, targeting $3.40 and, in extension, $4.15 as per the 61.8 percent Fibonacci extension. However, a failure at $2.65 likely paves the way for $2.00 retest, deepening the correction and erasing the Q3 rally. Given the current confluence of negative on-chain flows, exhausted momentum, and pending macro catalysts, the prudent stance is to hold neutral exposure for now. Should XRP stabilize above $2.80 and recapture $3.00 on strong volumes, that would shift the scale back toward a constructive outlook, meriting a tactical buy. Until then, restraint is warranted: neither outright long nor short, but waiting for a confirmed directional breakout before committing capital.

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