XRP-USD Consolidates Around $3.12 as Market Poised for Fed Catalysts
XRP-USD has found a temporary resting point at $3.12, trading in a tight $3.06–$3.18 range on Tuesday as leveraged traders pare back positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. After surging to an all-time peak of $3.66 on July 18, Ripple’s native token has surrendered roughly 16% and now navigates a critical support band just above $3.00, where futures open interest has fallen from $10.94 billion to $8.97 billion, indicating that speculative fervor is waning.
Technical Indicators Paint a Neutral Bias Below $3.20
Repeated attempts to clear resistance at $3.20 have failed to stick, underscoring the token’s struggle to regain bullish momentum. The MACD on the daily timeframe remains in negative territory, with the blue line sitting beneath its red signal counterpart and histogram bars deep in the red, all pointing to persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI has rebounded from oversold readings near 30 back up to around 50, signaling neither clear bullish nor bearish dominance. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $2.74 and the 100-day EMA at $2.53 loom as crucial levels; slippage below $3.00 would leave these moving averages vulnerable, potentially drawing XRP-USD down toward the $2.95 Fibonacci extension.
Open Interest and Whale Flows Signal Cautious Positioning
Derivatives activity underscores a shift in sentiment. Open interest in XRP futures peaked at $10.94 billion on July 22 but has since eased to $8.97 billion, reflecting the unwind of leveraged bets. On-chain data show that large-holder transfers to exchanges plunged from 43 000 XRP per day in early July to under 3 000 XRP on July 28. That stark reduction in whale selling suggests the $3.00 floor is gaining respect, providing a backstop for bulls even as momentum indicators remain subdued.
Macro Calendar Sets Stage for Volatility Around FOMC and Tariffs
All eyes now turn to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation and rate path will directly influence U.S. dollar strength and capital flows into crypto. Compounding the risk environment, President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs take effect on August 1, a development that historically triggers risk-off moves and may sap liquidity from digital-asset markets. The confluence of these events has driven traders to reduce exposure, as evidenced by the drop in futures open interest and choppy price action around $3.12.
Fundamental Catalysts Lurk on the Horizon
Beyond macro shifts, Ripple’s evolving regulatory and product landscape continues to shape the outlook. The company’s $150 million SEC settlement has removed a significant overhang, while the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s pending decision on a U.S. banking license for RLUSD stablecoin promises expanded institutional use cases. Additionally, 11 spot XRP ETF applications are under SEC review, with verdicts expected by the end of October. Approval of one or more ETFs could trigger sustained inflows, potentially validating a breakout above $3.20 and reaccelerating demand.
Fibonacci Projections Offer Upside and Downside Roadmaps
Should XRP-USD overcome the $3.20 barrier on strong volume, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the post-bottom leg aligns near $4.00, representing an upside of approximately 28 percent from current levels. Conversely, failure to hold the $3.00 pivot would expose the 100 percent Fibonacci extension at $2.95, then the 50-day EMA at $2.74, and ultimately the 61.8 percent extension near $2.53, a drop of roughly 20 percent from today’s spot.
Hold Positions, Eye Break Above $3.20 for Bullish Confirmation
With technical indicators neutral, open interest declining, and macro events looming, the prudent stance is to maintain existing positions without layering on new exposure. A decisive daily close above $3.20 accompanied by rising volume would validate a bullish shift and open a path toward $4.00. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.95 would usher in additional downside risks. Until one of these thresholds resolves, XRP-USD is best treated as range-bound, awaiting the next catalyst to break the stalemate.
