AMD Price Surges to $161 as AI Spending Expands Across Hyperscalers
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has surged to $161, rising sharply on momentum from accelerating AI infrastructure demand across hyperscaler customers. Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle have all expanded capex allocations for GPU deployment, and AMD’s MI300X ramp is beginning to show up in volume shipments. The 2.5% weekly gain puts AMD within reach of its $164 resistance, a level it last challenged in March, before broad rotation out of semis clipped its momentum. Options flows have turned decisively bullish, with rising open interest in $170–$180 call spreads suggesting institutional appetite is building for a breakout.
Hyperscaler Pipeline Now Anchored by AMD: Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Drive Volume
The hyperscaler narrative is no longer hypothetical—AMD confirmed in its recent update that Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are actively deploying MI300X accelerators at scale. Revenue from the Data Center segment rose 80% YoY in Q1 to over $2.3 billion, driven almost entirely by MI300 ramp and server-side adoption. Meta is currently deploying AMD hardware across its Llama 3 training environments, while Microsoft’s Azure team is sourcing MI300X for GPT-4-tuned workloads. The company's cloud exposure now rivals NVIDIA’s in pace, even if not in scale. This validates AMD’s execution strategy around CDNA 3 and custom silicon for AI supercomputing.
MI325X Launch in Q3 Will Raise Competitive Pressure on NVIDIA
AMD is preparing to launch the MI325X accelerator in Q3 2025, a direct successor to the MI300X with larger memory capacity and faster HBM interconnect. This product is expected to directly challenge NVIDIA’s H200 on pricing and throughput. The rollout will coincide with ramping demand from sovereign AI projects and large-scale enterprise LLM training efforts. AMD is already securing forward contracts from major cloud integrators in Asia, suggesting early bookings for MI325X may appear as early as the next earnings call. Street analysts are quietly revising FY25 data center forecasts upward, with multiple estimates now pointing to $10 billion+ run rate in that segment alone.
AMD Gains Server Market Share as Intel Stalls on Platform Delays
Intel’s continued delay in delivering Granite Rapids and Sierra Forest has allowed AMD to regain server market share, particularly in high-margin enterprise deployments. As of Q1, AMD held 23.6% share in the x86 server market, up from 20.9% last year. EPYC Genoa and Bergamo platforms are benefiting from Intel’s persistent yield and node transition issues. AMD’s ability to deliver high-core-count, energy-efficient silicon on schedule has reinforced confidence across hyperscaler CIOs, many of whom are shifting procurement cycles toward AMD over Intel for both AI and traditional workloads. While Intel remains dominant in absolute units, revenue share has shifted more meaningfully.
Technical Structure Remains Bullish With $164 Breakout in Focus
From a technical lens, AMD is forming a bullish continuation pattern above the $156–$158 demand zone, supported by rising volume and an RSI that has reset from overbought. The next upside level is $164, a resistance tested multiple times but never cleared on a weekly close. A sustained breakout would target the $173.50 gap, the post-earnings rejection zone from early 2024. On the downside, support rests at $149.80, the 50-day EMA. The MACD remains positive and widening, confirming short-term bullish divergence, while short interest has dropped to 1.4% of float, the lowest in a year.
Valuation Stretched, But Justified by Accelerating Data Center Run Rate
AMD trades at ~47x forward earnings, expensive by historical standards but increasingly rationalized by top-line acceleration. Gross margin expanded to 52%, with guidance for 54%+ by year-end as MI300X shipments scale. The company’s long-term EPS CAGR is being revised toward 30% by multiple analysts, driven by accelerating data center revenue, higher-margin AI SKUs, and deeper hyperscaler penetration. AMD’s AI pipeline could account for 35–40% of total revenue by 2026, a transformational shift that supports the current multiple—especially as NVIDIA becomes capacity-constrained.
Insider Transactions Confirm Confidence, Institutional Holdings Rise
Recent Form 4 filings show continued insider accumulation, with EVP Rick Bergman acquiring $1.25 million in AMD shares at prices near $151 in mid-June. Institutional ownership remains elevated, with Vanguard and BlackRock both increasing exposure. AMD also appeared in the top 10 new adds in multiple AI-thematic ETFs, including Global X and WisdomTree AI portfolios, suggesting passive capital is now rotating back into the name after the March–April profit-taking wave.
Buy/Sell/Hold Verdict: Buy AMD, Target $173.50 on Hyperscaler Acceleration
Based on hyperscaler order visibility, product roadmap execution, and rising AI data center penetration, NASDAQ:AMD = Buy. Near-term target is $173.50, with upside risk to $185 if MI325X pricing undercuts NVIDIA. Downside is limited as long as $149.80 holds. The valuation premium is warranted by the rapid shift in mix toward AI compute and server TAM expansion. Macro risks (Fed, tariffs) are secondary to AMD’s positioning in one of the strongest secular trends in tech.
