AVDV ETF Price Forecast - AVDV Hits $103.60 High as $5,000 Gold and Weak Dollar Ignite International Small-Cap Value

AVDV ETF: International Small-Cap Value Leveraging Gold, FX And Cycles

AVDV ETF: Price, Range And Recent Momentum Around $103.60

NYSEARCA:AVDV trades at about $103.60, up 1.25% on the day, after a prior close of $102.32. The ETF is sitting at a fresh 52-week high, with a year range of $60.88–$103.60, so the fund is now trading right at the top of its band after a powerful run. From the bottom of $60.88 to $103.60, investors who bought the lows are sitting on roughly 70%+ price appreciation, before counting distributions. Average daily volume is about 88k shares, so liquidity is sufficient for most investors but still reflects a specialist product, not a mega-ETF. With fund AUM near $16.9B, AVDV ETF is large enough to be institutionally credible while still behaving like a factor and regional bet, not like a vanilla global index fund.

AVDV ETF: Strategy – Concentrated International Small-Cap Value Tilt

AVDV ETF is an actively managed international small-cap value fund built by Avantis, launched in 2019, now with roughly $16.8–16.96B in assets and about 1,588 holdings. The weighted average market cap in the portfolio is around $2.38B, so you are not buying global blue chips; you are buying the cheaper end of developed-market small and mid caps. Avantis calls this “modern value”: instead of chasing the lowest multiples blindly, NYSEARCA:AVDV aims for companies with high profitability at reasonable prices, leaning into value factors but screening out low-quality balance sheets and weak cash flows. The fund only holds equities in developed markets outside the U.S., so you get explicit “ex-US small value” exposure. That means no U.S. mega-cap tech, no U.S. banks, no domestic energy giants. Performance will diverge hard from the S&P 500, by design.

AVDV ETF: Sector And Factor Exposures – Heavy Materials, Industrials, Financials

On sector allocation, AVDV ETF is built as a deliberate bet on the old economy and on the global reflation trade. The portfolio is overweight Industrials, Materials, and Financials, with additional weight in Consumer Discretionary and Energy, and underweight in Tech, Healthcare, and Real Estate. You are buying factories, mines, shippers, banks, commodity producers, and cyclical small-cap businesses, not cloud platforms and biotech. This tilt is valuation-driven: small-cap value outside the U.S. trades at a deep discount compared with U.S. growth and even compared with global large caps, so NYSEARCA:AVDV is systematically pushed into these cheaper sectors. The side effect is factor risk: if commodities, global trade and industrial activity stall, this allocation will amplify downside.

AVDV ETF: Country Bets – Japan-Heavy With Select Developed Ex-US Exposure

By country, AVDV ETF is heavily skewed to Japan, which is the dominant weight in the portfolio, with additional exposure to the “Anglosphere” (UK, Canada, Australia) and smaller allocations to other developed markets. Some markets have either zero or minimal weight, so this is not a neutral world index. Avantis has consciously overweighted Japan, where corporate governance is improving, shareholder returns are rising and small-cap valuations are still low versus U.S. peers. That Japan tilt has mattered: Japanese small-cap value has been a quiet winner, and AVDV ETF has captured that upside. But that also means investors are taking FX and policy risk tied to the yen and local reforms. A reversal in the Japan value story, or sharp currency swings, will feed directly into NYSEARCA:AVDV returns.

AVDV ETF: Gold Miners, Basic Materials And The Commodity Tailwind

A big driver of AVDV ETF performance in 2025 and early 2026 has been its high exposure to gold miners and basic materials. With the U.S. dollar (DXY) down nearly 10% over the past year and gold prices climbing more than 80% across that period, then surging above $5,000/oz in early 2026, the fund’s tilt into miners has been critical. The SPDR Gold Shares proxy for gold (GLD) has gained about 15.6% in 2026 YTD through January 23, while silver (SLV) exploded more than 44% over the same stretch. Small-cap miners and related names respond with even higher beta: junior-miner ETF GDXJ delivered over 200% in the last year, while AVDV ETF booked around 55% over that same window. That gap tells you exactly what you own: a diversified small-cap value product with a strong materials tilt but not a pure mining bet. The fund also holds energy names, industrial commodity plays and cyclical exporters that benefit when raw materials and global trade volumes surge. As long as commodities, especially gold and silver, stay firm at these extreme levels, NYSEARCA:AVDV rides a powerful tailwind. If metals snap back, that same exposure will be a liability.

AVDV ETF: Performance – 49.6% In 2025 And 14%+ Annualized Over 5 Years

From a performance standpoint, AVDV ETF has moved from niche factor product to standout performer. In 2025, the fund delivered a 49.6% total return, driven largely by the explosion in gold and basic materials. Over the trailing five-year window through 12/31/25, it has compounded at more than 14% annually, a very strong profile for an international small-cap value ETF. Since inception in September 2019, NYSEARCA:AVDV has beaten its small-cap value benchmark VBR and has also outpaced most broad global equity indices over the past few years, while occasionally lagging the strongest periods of U.S. mega-cap growth. The performance inflection is clear post-pandemic: over the last three years, international equities have stopped being permanent laggards, and AVDV has leaned into that shift with both factor (value, small cap) and sector (materials, financials, industrials) tilts. The price chart shows AVDV ETF climbing from the low-60s to over $103, and the fund has outperformed GDXJ over much of the last five years until around April 2025, when the miners blew out to the upside. Against U.S. small-cap value CEF RVT, AVDV tracked closely on total return for most of the last five years and then pulled ahead once gold and materials surged in 2025.

AVDV ETF: Yield, Distributions And Income Profile Around 2.8–3.0%

While NYSEARCA:AVDV is not designed as an income fund, it still throws off a respectable yield. The trailing 12-month dividend rate is around $2.87 per share, which translates to roughly 2.8% at a $102–$103 price, and other sources cite a 3.0% yield as distributions have been trending higher. The fund pays semiannual distributions, and 2025 saw two large payouts, reflecting both underlying dividends from the portfolio and realized gains as small-cap value and gold-linked names re-rated. Importantly, most of the investor return here is still capital appreciation, not a 6–8% cash yield. You buy AVDV ETF primarily for factor and regional exposure, with the dividend as a kicker. Relative to global equity indices, a 2.8–3.0% yield is clearly above average, and that is a direct consequence of the fund’s value tilt and lower valuations in international small caps. Compared with an S&P 500 yield near 1.4–1.6%, investors are getting roughly double the cash payout from AVDV before any special distributions.

AVDV ETF: Valuation – Roughly 50% Discount Versus U.S. Equities

The core of the AVDV ETF thesis is valuation. On earnings multiples, value stocks globally trade at about a 40% discount to growth, versus a 30% historical average discount. International equities as a whole trade at deep discounts to U.S. equities, both versus their own history and versus U.S. large caps. NYSEARCA:AVDV then drills further down into the cheapest segments of international small-cap value, ending up at an aggregate valuation roughly 50% cheaper than U.S. equities across common metrics such as price/earnings and price/book. One data point from the underlying holdings: the average company in AVDV trades around 10.6x earnings, in contrast with a U.S. large-cap index near 22.3x. At 10.6x, if a company devoted 100% of earnings to buybacks, it could reduce its share count enough to boost EPS by about 9.4% in a year. An S&P 500 company at 22.3x can only drive around 4.5% EPS uplift from the same capital. That multiple gap explains why the fund can deliver a 3.0% yield and still have room for buybacks and reinvestment. It also builds in optionality: if global investors continue to rotate out of expensive U.S. growth and into cheaper ex-U.S. value, there is room for multiples in AVDV ETF to expand without needing explosive earnings growth.

AVDV ETF: Active Management, Costs And Risk Profile

AVDV ETF charges an expense ratio of 0.36%, high versus an ultra-cheap index such as VBR at 0.07%, but reasonable for an active strategy operating in a less efficient, niche segment. Avantis has multiple funds with similar philosophy and has built a solid performance track record in value and small-cap factors. Active management here expresses itself in three ways: country tilts (heavy Japan, selective developed ex-US), sector tilts (overweight materials, industrials, financials, energy), and security selection (profitability screens, governance and liquidity filters). That active overlay brings both upside and risk. If the manager continues to pick countries and sectors that ride macro and factor trends, NYSEARCA:AVDV will keep outperforming. If they mis-time the commodity cycle, Japan, or small-cap value, underperformance can be sharp. Add on top the inherent volatility of small-cap value stocks and the reliance on cyclical sectors, and you should expect AVDV ETF to show larger drawdowns than broad global indices in stress periods.

AVDV ETF: Singapore Small-Cap Exposure And Trading Activity Surge

One concrete example of how AVDV ETF expresses its mandate is the basket of 30 Singapore-listed stocks it tracks. By July 25, 2025, those 30 counters had seen average daily turnover jump to $52.9M, an 80% increase versus $29.3M in 2024. That is not just a price story; it is a liquidity story, with more capital rotating into exactly the segment AVDV is targeting. The group delivered about a 42% average and 25% median total return YTD, confirming that the fund is tapping into a high-beta, high-return pocket of the market. Within that Singapore slice, Yangzijiang Financial Holding delivered about 138% YTD, Wee Hur Holdings rallied 99%, and CNMC Goldmine surged 103%. AVDV ETF holds Yangzijiang Financial at 0.61% of assets and First Resources at 0.18% as its largest Singapore weights. It also crossed the 5% ownership threshold in Rex International, now holding around 69M shares, representing 0.09% of the overall ETF. That substantial-shareholder status in Rex underlines how NYSEARCA:AVDV can become a meaningful presence in specific small-cap names and benefit from both price and liquidity re-rating as more investors discover those stocks.

AVDV ETF: Screening Process – Value, Profitability, Governance And Liquidity

The stock selection process for AVDV ETF is more than “cheap P/B screens.” The fund uses adjusted book-to-price and cash-flow-to-book metrics to identify genuine value with real cash generation, not value traps. It layers in filters for profitability, so structurally unprofitable names are de-emphasized or excluded, and it also screens for liquidity, governance, and risk. In practice, that means some of the absolute cheapest stocks are left out if their governance looks weak, their trading volume is too thin, or their risk profile is extreme. That is important in international small caps, where governance standards vary widely and where illiquid microcaps can blow up a portfolio in a drawdown. Combined with the factor and country tilts, this process pushes NYSEARCA:AVDV towards smaller, profitable industrials, materials names, financials, and exporters that can scale if the global cycle cooperates.

AVDV ETF: Macro Backdrop – “Sell America”, Weak Dollar And Commodity Leadership

The macro context behind AVDV ETF is straightforward. The “Sell America” narrative has returned as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has slid almost 10% in a year while gold is up more than 80%, and now trades north of $5,000/oz. Silver sits above $100–$110/oz after a 44% YTD jump in 2026. At the same time, the U.S. market is still dominated by the “Mag 7” (MAGS) mega-cap growth names at rich valuations. Investors looking for diversification, currency hedges, and exposure to real assets have pivoted toward foreign small-cap value and commodities. According to Franklin Templeton’s view on U.S. and global small caps, 2026 is set up for a rotation into smaller companies, helped by more accommodative monetary and fiscal conditions and by mean reversion after years of mega-cap dominance. Raw materials have already “rocketed higher” in early 2026, leading major asset classes, with foreign equities in second place. NYSEARCA:AVDV sits right at that intersection: foreign small-cap value, high materials weight, and meaningful gold-miner exposure, plus a weaker-dollar tailwind for non-USD earnings. If the “Sell America” theme and commodity leadership persist, AVDV ETF is structurally positioned to keep taking in flows and compounding.

AVDV ETF: Comparison With GDXJ And RVT – How Pure Do You Want The Bet?

Investors considering AVDV ETF often weigh it against more focused products. Pure-play junior gold miners via GDXJ have delivered 200%+ in the past year versus 55% for AVDV. That gap reflects leverage: GDXJ is a concentrated, high-beta exposure to a single industry and a single macro driver (gold). NYSEARCA:AVDV blends miners with industrials, financials, and other small-cap cyclicals across regions, so the beta to gold is high but not absolute. Over a five-year window, AVDV ETF actually outperformed GDXJ until about April 2025, when junior miners exploded as gold broke higher. Meanwhile, versus U.S. small-cap value CEF RVT, the total return profile has been broadly similar over five years, with AVDV pulling ahead only after the commodity breakout. RVT pays a higher yield and is more income-oriented, but is U.S.-focused and carries CEF discount/premium dynamics. AVDV ETF offers a cleaner, more liquid, ex-US factor trade with less distribution but stronger link to currency and commodity trends.

AVDV ETF: Key Risks – Gold Reversal, Rates, AI Slowdown And Geopolitics

The bullish setup for NYSEARCA:AVDV is obvious, but the risk list is non-trivial and must be taken seriously. The first and most direct risk is a sharp reversal in gold and other metals. A collapse from $5,000+ gold and $100–$110 silver back toward more normal levels would hit gold miners and basic materials hard, which would drag AVDV ETF given its sector weights. Second, inflation surprises that push central banks back into aggressive hiking cycles could crash small-cap cyclicals, compress valuations, and trigger broad de-risking. Third, the AI and data-center boom that has been pulling global demand for energy, copper, and industrial capacity could slow sharply, undermining the commodity demand story and taking some of the bid out of the materials complex. Fourth, geopolitical shocks—particularly those that derail global trade or trigger acute risk-off moves—could simultaneously hurt small caps, commodities, and non-U.S. currencies, a triple hit for AVDV. Finally, as an active product, there is manager risk: if Avantis mistimes country or sector shifts, or if value and small-cap factors remain under pressure for an extended period, NYSEARCA:AVDV can underperform plain vanilla global indices.

AVDV ETF: Verdict At $103.60 – High-Beta Buy With Cyclical And FX Risk

At roughly $103.60, right at its 52-week high and well above the $60.88 low, AVDV ETF is no longer a forgotten deep-value play. It is a momentum-backed, factor-driven vehicle sitting in the sweet spot of current macro trends: weaker dollar, record $5,000+ gold, $100+ silver, and investor rotation toward foreign small-cap value. The fund has proven it can deliver, with about 49.6% return in 2025, 14%+ annualized over five years, and a 2.8–3.0% yield on top. Valuations remain compelling at roughly half the multiples of U.S. equities, the portfolio screens for profitability and governance, and active tilts to Japan, materials, and financials are currently aligned with the macro tape. The flip side is that you are buying into a product that will be volatile, heavily exposed to commodities and small caps, and vulnerable to a reversal in the “Sell America” and gold trade. Taking all of that into account, at $103.60 and with these fundamentals, I view NYSEARCA:AVDV as a Buy with a bullish bias, best used as a satellite position for investors who want aggressive exposure to international small-cap value and the metals-and-FX trade, and who can tolerate sharp drawdowns when the cycle turns.

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