Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF Inflows Soar to $3.24B as BTC Nears $124K and “Uptober” Momentum Builds Toward $150K

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge to $3.24B as BTC (BTC-USD) Approaches $124K and “Uptober” Triggers Institutional Buying Frenzy

Bitcoin’s October trading cycle has opened with one of the strongest institutional waves on record. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States absorbed $3.24 billion in net inflows over the past week, marking the second-largest weekly total since their January 2024 debut and nearly matching November 2024’s record of $3.38 billion. The surge reversed last week’s $902 million outflow and pushed four-week cumulative inflows near $4 billion, underscoring a dramatic shift in market sentiment as investors price in another Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar backdrop.

ETF Absorption and Structural Supply Tightening

The scale of the current inflow cycle is more than a short-term rotation; it’s reshaping Bitcoin’s supply structure. BlackRock’s iShares IBIT ETF alone captured $1.8 billion, expanding its assets under management to roughly $96.2 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC drew $692 million, about 38 percent of IBIT’s weekly intake. Combined, these two vehicles now represent over 60 percent of all U.S. spot ETF volume, with several billion dollars trading daily on IBIT alone.

Analysts estimate that at the present run-rate, Q4 ETF demand could absorb more than 100,000 BTC from circulating supply—a figure nearly double the network’s new quarterly issuance. This supply compression coincides with a moderation in long-term holder distribution, suggesting that market liquidity is thinning even as demand accelerates.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Amplify ETF Demand

The timing of these inflows is not coincidental. Expectations for an additional Fed rate cut before year-end 2025 have risen sharply following softer U.S. macro data and an extended government shutdown now projected to last 10 – 29 days, according to Polymarket odds. Historically, shutdowns lasting beyond two weeks have driven capital flight toward non-sovereign stores of value. Bitcoin and gold are both benefiting: gold hit new nominal highs above $2,660 per ounce this week, while Bitcoin surged above $123,996, its highest print since August 14.

JPMorgan strategists referred to this rotation as the “debasement trade,” as investors hedge against fiscal gridlock and inflation persistence. Bank of America data show that during prior shutdowns, the S&P 500 averaged +1% gains, but risk-off sentiment toward U.S. Treasuries often redirected flows into hard assets. That dynamic appears to be replaying, with Bitcoin now absorbing liquidity from traditional markets.

Technical Landscape: Key Levels and Momentum Structure

On the daily chart, BTC/USD reclaimed the $120,000 handle with strong conviction, breaching both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, now stacked near $118,300 and $115,900 respectively. The breakout carried BTC to a six-week high of $123,996, narrowly below its August peak of $125,000. Momentum oscillators confirm overbought conditions—RSI (14) at 73 —yet buyers remain firmly in control.

Above $125,000 lies the major Fibonacci extension zone targeting $135,000–$138,000, aligning with analyst projections from Capriole Investments, whose founder Charles Edwards expects a “very quick move toward $150,000 before the end of 2025” if ETF inflows sustain current velocity. Immediate support rests at $120,000, followed by $117,000 and $113,500, the latter representing a critical liquidity pocket accumulated during August’s consolidation.

Institutional Rotation and ETF Market Share Dynamics

The institutional footprint behind this rally is broader than previous cycles. Total U.S. Bitcoin ETF AUM has climbed beyond $164 billion, up nearly 14 percent month-to-date. IBIT and FBTC lead, but secondary vehicles from ARK Invest, VanEck, and WisdomTree also reported multi-hundred-million inflows. The return of sustained ETF bids indicates that large asset managers view Bitcoin’s current range as an accumulation zone ahead of the 2025 halving event.

Ethereum ETFs mirrored the trend, recording $1.3 billion in weekly inflows—a $2.1 billion reversal from the prior week’s record outflow. The synchronized move across both BTC and ETH products suggests that traditional capital is re-entering crypto via compliant, exchange-traded structures rather than spot exchange exposure.

Seasonality and Historical Context of “Uptober”

Seasonality compounds the bullish tone. According to CoinGlass data, October delivers an average +20% monthly return for Bitcoin, second only to November’s +46%. The pattern—coined “Uptober” by traders—often precedes year-end rallies that culminate in cycle highs. This historical rhythm, combined with unprecedented ETF participation, is fueling expectations that 2025’s fourth quarter could replicate the parabolic phases of 2016 and 2020.

Trader Merlijn and others highlight that Bitcoin’s current structure—consolidation just below all-time highs followed by accelerating institutional inflows—mirrors the setups that led to multi-month vertical advances in prior cycles. If history rhymes, the market could witness a sharp re-pricing into early 2026.