Bitcoin ETFs Face $799 Million Outflow as IBIT Weakens and BTC-USD Slides Toward $100,000

Bitcoin ETFs (BTC-USD) Bleed $799 Million as Institutional Flows Reverse and Market Rotation Favors Solana

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continues to face significant headwinds after a sharp reversal in institutional demand sent exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows plunging to their lowest levels since launch. The week ending November 3 saw Bitcoin ETFs post $798.95 million in outflows, marking the second-largest redemption wave since August. Leading products such as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) bore the brunt, losing $403.41 million and $155.83 million, respectively. Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) shed $76.48 million, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) lost $79.06 million, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded $68.14 million in redemptions.

Trading activity remained strong at $24.75 billion, yet total Bitcoin ETF assets under management declined to $147.73 billion, a steep drop from October’s peak near $150 billion. The selloff mirrors Bitcoin’s broader market weakness, as BTC-USD dropped from $121,000 at the start of October to $106,763 on November 3, erasing more than $200 billion in market capitalization within weeks.

IBIT ETF (BlackRock) Faces Record Withdrawals as Inflows Collapse to 600 BTC Weekly

The spotlight remains on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), whose flows have slowed dramatically. According to Glassnode data, the fund recorded less than 600 BTC in weekly inflows over the past three weeks — a staggering contrast to the 10,000+ BTC inflows per week that fueled prior rallies earlier in 2025. IBIT shares trade at $60.55, down 2.84%, reflecting waning confidence among large investors. Despite maintaining $165.78 billion in market capitalization, the ETF’s inflow slowdown signals fatigue after months of heavy accumulation.

On-chain data adds further pressure: Whale Insider reported that 1,198 BTC worth $129 million were moved from BlackRock custodial wallets to Coinbase, potentially signaling internal rebalancing. While these transfers do not necessarily indicate selling, they underscore how asset managers are repositioning amid volatile macro conditions and reduced demand.

ETF Outflows Coincide with Fed Caution and Broader Crypto Liquidations

The sharp reversal in ETF flows aligns with renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell warned last week that further rate cuts in December are “not a foregone conclusion,” a statement that triggered a broad unwind across risk assets. Crypto investment products collectively saw $360 million in total outflows during the week, with U.S.-based funds accounting for $439 million in redemptions, partially offset by inflows from Germany and Switzerland.

This macro shock erased nearly $1.1 billion in leveraged crypto positions over the weekend, the largest daily liquidation event since May. Bitcoin alone suffered $34 million in single-trade liquidations on HTX, underscoring how rapidly institutional positioning has turned defensive. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains anchored near 100, while Treasury yields hover above 4.3%, compressing speculative appetite across crypto assets.

Capital Rotation Toward Solana ETFs Signals Market Repricing

As Bitcoin inflows collapsed, capital rotation accelerated toward Solana-based ETFs, led by Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which launched with $222.8 million in seed capital and delivered $417 million in cumulative inflows during its first week. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GSOL ETF added another $2.18 million, bringing total Solana ETF assets above $502 million. Analysts at Kronos Research described this as “capital rotation” — funds moving from Bitcoin and Ethereum into alternative yield-bearing assets offering 7% staking returns.

This rotation marks a structural divergence: while BTC ETFs bled nearly $800 million, Solana ETFs achieved four consecutive days of net inflows. The phenomenon reflects shifting institutional preferences, with investors seeking diversification and yield stability amid Bitcoin’s stagnation.

On-Chain Data Confirms Weak Demand Environment for Bitcoin

Blockchain metrics paint a similar picture of cooling enthusiasm. The Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks BTC’s price differential between U.S. and Asian markets — flipped negative in late October, confirming that U.S. buyers have retreated. Meanwhile, short-term holder realized price sits nearly equal to spot price at $107,000, implying limited incentive for new entries. Retail momentum has vanished as ETF-driven buying wanes.

Technically, BTC-USD now trades below all key moving averages — 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs — with RSI holding near 41, signaling persistent bearish momentum. Volume distribution remains red-heavy, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains negative, showing that capital continues to leave the market.

Market Dynamics: AI Equities Soak Liquidity From Bitcoin ETFs

Another factor weighing on Bitcoin ETF flows is the massive liquidity absorption by equity markets. The S&P 500 has surged toward 5,650, with Evercore ISI projecting 7,750 by 2026, led by AI-driven tech and communication sectors. This exuberance has diverted capital from digital assets into traditional equities. ETF strategist Eric Balchunas described the environment as “a market that’s forgotten how to fall,” with inverse equity ETFs reverse-splitting five times this year — a signal of overwhelming bullish bias.

This rotation explains part of the Bitcoin stagnation: as institutional investors chase momentum in AI and semiconductors, Bitcoin’s share of total ETF inflows has collapsed from 78% in August to 42% by late October.

Performance Snapshot: Bitcoin ETFs vs. Broader Crypto Products

While Bitcoin ETFs led outflows, Ethereum products remained relatively resilient, recording $15.97 million in inflows, mainly from Grayscale’s Ether Mini Trust (+$56.05 million) and BlackRock’s ETHA ETF (+$13.59 million). By contrast, Fidelity’s FETH, Bitwise’s ETHW, and Grayscale’s ETHE saw minor losses. This stability highlights Ethereum’s defensive posture relative to Bitcoin’s volatility.

Total crypto ETF assets now stand near $180 billion, down from $195 billion two weeks earlier. Bitcoin remains the dominant share at $147.7 billion, but its percentage of the market has dropped below 82%, the lowest since ETF approval in January.

Technical Outlook: BTC-USD Eyes $100,000 as Key Support

From a technical standpoint, $100,000 remains the pivotal line separating correction from capitulation. A decisive breakdown below this level could trigger algorithmic liquidation waves toward $94,500–$96,000, where historical volume profiles show high accumulation. Conversely, a sustained close above $110,000 would restore bullish structure and reopen the path to $121,000, the October high.

Market liquidity, however, remains thin. ETF-driven volume compression has reduced daily spot turnover by 27% compared to early October, reflecting hesitation among institutional desks. Until ETF inflows resume and the Coinbase Premium Index turns positive, Bitcoin’s upward potential remains capped.

Institutional Sentiment and Insider Positioning

Large holders appear to be rebalancing rather than abandoning exposure. Whale activity remains visible, with transfers between custodians rather than direct exchange deposits — suggesting portfolio optimization rather than panic. BlackRock and Fidelity remain the largest custodians, holding over 85% of total Bitcoin ETF assets combined. The IBIT ETF’s 52-week range — from $38.17 to $71.82 — shows ample room for recovery once macro headwinds subside.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — often viewed as a proxy for institutional Bitcoin exposure — trades near $269.51, down 1.6%, after confirming holdings exceeding $47 billion in BTC. CEO Michael Saylor reiterated plans to increase Bitcoin exposure if ETF redemptions stabilize, reinforcing the corporate conviction behind digital reserves.

Macro Risk and Forward Projections

With Treasury yields elevated and Fed liquidity conditions tightening, Bitcoin remains in a macro squeeze. ETF capital — a leading indicator of institutional sentiment — has flipped negative, but historical data shows these pullbacks often precede large reaccumulation phases. Should the Federal Reserve pivot in early 2026, ETF inflows could rebound to 5,000–8,000 BTC per week, driving spot price recovery toward $130,000.

In the meantime, volatility remains the defining characteristic. With global ETFs holding over $147 billion in Bitcoin, even a 1% rotation back into crypto from AI and equities would inject $1.4 billion in net new capital — enough to reverse recent losses and reestablish upward trajectory.

Verdict: HOLD – Neutral Bias with Upside Potential Above $110,000

Based on current ETF data, macro tightening, and market rotation trends, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) earns a HOLD rating. Institutional flows are cooling but not collapsing. The IBIT ETF remains the bellwether for inflow resumption, with $60 as key technical support. A rebound in weekly ETF inflows above 5,000 BTC would likely reignite a rally toward $121,000–$125,000.

Until then, traders should monitor ETF flow data and macro indicators closely. Bitcoin’s short-term bias stays cautious between $100,000–$110,000, but the long-term structure remains bullish, contingent on institutional capital returning through ETF channels.

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