Bitcoin ETF Flows Crack: BTC-USD Stuck Near $68K as IBIT ETF Bleeds Below $40

Bitcoin ETF Outflows, BTC-USD Technical Stress And IBIT’s Position

BTC-USD Trades Below ETF Cost Basis As Pressure Builds

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around the high-$68,000 area after a drawdown of more than 20% from recent highs, while the on-chain realized price for the spot-ETF cohort sits close to $80,000 per coin. That gap means the average ETF holder is now under water and any push toward $80,000 collides with a heavy supply wall from investors trying to exit near break-even. The ETF MVRV ratio for this cohort has slipped below 1, which historically marks stress phases where unrealized losses dominate and every bounce is sold until weaker hands are flushed out. If MVRV grinds into the 0.8–0.9 band, history says that is where forced selling tends to burn out and where short-term rebounds often start, but the market has not reached that stabilization pocket yet.

IBIT Tracks The Drawdown With A Compressed Valuation Window

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF IBIT trades near $38.42, up 0.92% on the day, with a day range of $37.72–$38.61 and a 52-week range of $35.30–$71.82. Market capitalization is around $169.7 billion in terms of underlying Bitcoin exposure and average daily volume near 75 million shares, which keeps spreads tight and execution clean even in stress. At roughly $38 per share against an ETF cost basis anchored near $80,000 per BTC, the structure reflects the same underwater profile that the underlying MVRV is signaling. Every attempt to push IBIT into the low-$40s runs into redemption pressure from holders who anchored to the higher cost basis that formed during the parabolic leg toward $80,000.

Five Straight Weeks Of Bitcoin ETF Outflows Total $3.8 Billion

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just printed five consecutive weeks of net outflows, the longest run since the tariff-driven selloff of early 2025. Over that window, roughly $3.8 billion has left the complex, including about $316 million in the latest holiday-shortened week. The pattern inside the week matters. Several sessions showed healthy inflows, including a late-week day with around $88 million of net buying across funds, led by IBIT and its largest rival. Those inflows were overwhelmed by larger redemption days, including a single-session outflow above $400 million earlier in the streak and multiple sessions between $100–$160 million of net selling. That combination confirms this is a sustained de-risking cycle, not a one-day capitulation spike, and it matches the grind lower seen in BTC-USD from the prior $80,000–$90,000 area.

Despite Redemptions, The ETF Footprint Remains Structurally Large

Even after five weeks of red ink, the structural footprint of the ETF channel is still heavy. Since launch, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated roughly $54 billion of cumulative net inflows and still sit on about $85–86 billion of net assets, equivalent to roughly 6.3% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. That is not what structural exit looks like. It is a re-pricing and positioning clean-up after an over-extended run. For IBIT specifically, that means the fund remains the dominant regulated route into Bitcoin, both in assets and liquidity. The pressure now is less about survival of the product and more about what price level will convince this installed base to move from loss-management back to risk-on accumulation.

Macro: Tariff Noise And Risk-Off Flows Fuel The Outflow Cycle

The flow pattern is not happening in a vacuum. Tariff headlines, legal fights over global trade policy and shifting expectations for U.S. rate cuts are feeding a broad risk-off bias. The crypto fear gauges sit in “extreme fear”, and rate markets swing aggressively on each labor and inflation print, keeping high-beta exposure like BTC-USD and IBIT on the chopping block. Institutions are cutting from the most liquid line on the sheet, which is spot Bitcoin and the largest ETF wrappers, while leaving their structural crypto allocation intact. That is why total ETF assets are still above $85 billion even as $3.8 billion left in five weeks. This is a volatility and VaR management exercise, not a full repudiation of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Rotation Inside Crypto: Altcoin ETFs Absorb Part Of The Flows

While Bitcoin and Ether ETFs bleed, the altcoin sleeve tells a different story. Spot Solana ETFs have quietly absorbed about $14.3 million of net inflows over the same five-week window, and spot XRP ETFs have added roughly $1.8 million, even as BTC and ETH wrappers post synchronized outflows. That divergence shows capital is rotating along the risk curve inside crypto rather than leaving the ecosystem. For Bitcoin ETF flows, that means a slice of the selling in IBIT and peers is not going to cash; it is being redeployed into higher-beta themes like Solana and XRP, especially by mandates that want to keep headline crypto exposure but are willing to change where the risk sits.

ETF MVRV, Cost Basis And The Key BTC-USD Zones To Watch

The ETF cost basis around $80,000 now acts as the first major resistance shelf for BTC-USD and, by extension, for IBIT’s net asset value. Any push into that region meets a wall of holders sitting on months of unrealized drawdown. Below the market, the stress indicators matter. If ETF MVRV stabilizes in the 0.8–0.9 range, that would signal that most of the forced-exit pressure has already played out and that the marginal seller is running out of ammunition. In that scenario, a rebound toward the cost basis becomes plausible, but only after a period where BTC digests in the $60,000–$70,000 zone and flows flatten out from net outflow to neutral. If MVRV keeps falling while price holds above the mid-$60Ks, the message is that ETFs are being used as a liquid hedge while spot and derivatives stay pinned, which usually delays a clean bottom and extends the chop.

IBIT Microstructure: Liquidity Is A Feature, Not A Bug

In IBIT, the same mechanics play out at the fund level. With a share price around $38.42, a 52-week band of $35.30–$71.82 and tens of millions of shares changing hands daily, the ETF has become a real-time stress valve for macro-sensitive Bitcoin exposure. Large books can sell IBIT to de-risk without touching physical coins, and they can re-enter through the same instrument once volatility compresses and macro headlines calm down. That liquidity is why outflow streaks appear dramatic and why reversals, when they come, can be violent as the same pipeline that pushed $3.8 billion out can pull fresh capital back in over a handful of sessions.

ETF Outflows Versus Price: Why BTC-USD Hasn’t Collapsed Further

The notable detail is that a $3.8 billion outflow has produced a 30% drawdown, not a structural break. BTC-USD has held the broad mid-$60Ks to high-$60Ks band despite the outflows and despite the ETF cohort being under water at $80,000. That resilience suggests there is non-ETF demand quietly absorbing supply: long-horizon holders, corporates that treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and offshore flows that are not visible in U.S. ETF data. It also tells you that the marginal ETF seller today is not triggering a cascading liquidation environment. The risk is more grindy: repeated rallies into the low-$70Ks sold by ETFs until either macro improves or the cohort’s cost basis is reset lower through time and continued accumulation at lower prices.

Cross-Asset Context: Ether ETFs, Correlated Stress And Divergent Tails

Spot Ether ETFs have mirrored Bitcoin’s path with five consecutive weeks of outflows and about $123.4 million redeemed in the latest week. That synchronicity confirms that the selling is driven by the same macro book decisions rather than asset-specific fear. At the same time, the steady inflows into Solana and XRP ETFs show there is still demand for crypto risk; it is just getting more selective. Bitcoin is no longer the only story on the regulated shelf. IBIT remains the flagship, but the competitive landscape now includes multiple large wrappers across assets, and that fragmentation is visible in the flow splits between BTC, ETH and L1 or XRP vehicles.

Strategic View: BTC-USD And IBIT Rated As Hold With Tactical Buy Zones

Given the current configuration, BTC-USD and IBIT sit in a “Hold with tactical buy” zone rather than a clean all-clear or a structural short. BTC around $68,000 sits well below the ETF cohort’s $80,000 cost basis, MVRV is below 1, and ETF outflows total $3.8 billion over five weeks but are modest relative to the $54 billion of net inflows since launch. Macro remains hostile, tariff risk is unresolved, and fear gauges show elevated stress, so expecting a straight-line recovery is unrealistic. The constructive angle is clear: if BTC can defend the low-$60Ks on further shocks and if ETF MVRV starts to stabilize and grind back toward 1 while weekly flows move from negative toward flat, the setup for a sharp mean-reversion leg back toward $75,000–$80,000 strengthens. Below the high-$50Ks, the thesis breaks and the ETF complex faces another wave of realized losses that would likely extend the outflow streak and re-price IBIT into the low-$30s or below. Until then, the rational stance is to treat IBIT and spot BTC-USD as core positions under temporary macro pressure: not cheap enough for reckless leverage, not weak enough for panic exits, with a clear trigger map built around ETF cost basis near $80,000, MVRV behavior and weekly flow direction.

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