Natural Gas Futures Price Rebound Toward $3.14 on Cold Snap and LNG Export Strength

Natural Gas Futures Price: Henry Hub Fights To Hold The $3.00–$3.14 Band

Short-Covering Bounce From $2.951 To $3.141 On March Futures

March Natural Gas Futures Price at Henry Hub recovered after several weak sessions, reversing from an intraday low near $2.951 per MMBtu to about $3.141. That 14.5-cent move adds roughly 4.8% in a single day and clearly reflects short-covering into the weekend once the market failed to push to fresh lows below $3.00. BOIL jumped around 8% while KOLD fell by a similar magnitude, confirming that the positioning shift was driven by shorts exiting rather than a fresh wave of aggressive new longs. Even after the rebound, the contract has only just reclaimed the $3.00 handle and is still roughly $0.20 under last Friday’s settle, so the move is a defense of the floor, not a new breakout.

Storage Draw Of 144 Bcf: Miss Versus Consensus But Still A Real Deficit

The latest U.S. storage data show a 144 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending 13 February, leaving working gas at 2,070 Bcf. That is smaller than the roughly 148 Bcf draw the market was expecting, which is why the first reaction leaned bearish. The structure behind the headline is more supportive: inventories sit 59 Bcf below last year’s level and 123 Bcf below the five-year average. The combination of a genuine structural deficit and a slightly softer-than-expected weekly pull explains the choppy tape: there is no immediate shortage, but there is not enough cushion to ignore late-winter risk or export strength.

Production Near 108.6 Bcf/D Keeps A Cap On Any Runaway Spike

Lower-48 output is averaging about 108.6 Bcf per day in February, still close to the record volumes registered in December. At that run-rate, the system can refill storage aggressively once weather turns mild and demand normalizes. This production profile is the main brake on any extended move much above the low-$3s. Each incremental cent higher on the curve improves economics for marginal supply and encourages producers to keep rigs active and hedge forward volumes, which in turn reinforces the ceiling on the Natural Gas Futures Price as long as infrastructure keeps flowing smoothly.

LNG Export Flows Near Record Levels Now Rival Weather As A Price Driver

Export demand has become a second anchor for the market alongside weather. U.S. LNG facilities are operating near record utilization, creating a baseload pull that did not exist in previous cycles. Shipments into Asia are particularly important, with South Korean demand alone expected to rise by six to seven cargoes week-on-week in mid-February. This structural export bid is what prevents Henry Hub from collapsing back into the low-$2s despite strong production and weather-driven softness. Even when domestic heating demand dips, liquefaction plants and long-term contracts maintain a firm demand floor under the Natural Gas Futures Price.

Golden Pass LNG: 1 Bcf/D Of New Gulf Coast Demand Lined Up For Early March

The Golden Pass LNG project on the Gulf Coast is the next inflection point. Regulators have cleared a 1.1-mile lateral pipeline that can deliver up to 1 Bcf per day of gas from the Permian Basin into the terminal. Exxon Mobil’s management has pointed to “very early March” for first LNG production from the plant. Once feedgas ramps, that creates a new, permanent demand sink on top of existing exports. A full 1 Bcf/d of extra pull does not automatically launch Henry Hub into the $4s, but it hardens the floor: a curve trading far under $3 becomes increasingly incompatible with the export structure now in place.

Pipeline Exports To Mexico Help Absorb Permian Oversupply

Pipeline flows into Mexico are approaching 8 Bcf per day and rising, helping to drain excess supply out of U.S. basins like the Permian where constrained takeaway has recently driven hubs such as Waha into negative day-ahead prices. Forward curves already price in an improvement in those conditions, with Waha fixed-price forwards forecast to migrate from negative prints in 2026 toward levels near $4 per MMBtu by 2027–2028. That forward re-rating implies better balancing of regional flows and less risk that distressed Permian gas drags national benchmarks down sharply.

Turkey’s Spot Gas Market: Lira Pricing Near $9.40/MMBtu With Minimal Spot Volume

Türkiye’s spot platform reflects a very different cost environment. On 20 February, 1,000 cubic meters on the local spot market cleared at 14,548 Turkish lira. With the exchange rate around 43.83 lira per dollar, that equates to roughly $332 per 1,000 m³. Converting 1,000 m³ to about 35.3 MMBtu implies a spot price near $9.40 per MMBtu, more than three times the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Price near $3.14. Daily spot quotes have been clustered between 14,485.50 and 14,621 lira over the past week, a tight local band despite global volatility. Critically, traded spot volume on 20 February was around 220,000 m³, while import receipts on the same day were about 222.71 million m³. Spot trading therefore represents well under 1% of physical flows, which means Turkish exchange prices are a marginal signal layered onto a system dominated by long-term contracts, regulated tariffs and currency risk.

Cold Northeast And Midwest Versus Soft West And Texas In U.S. Cash Markets

Spot prices for Saturday–Monday delivery have lifted across key heating-demand hubs in the Northeast and Midwest ahead of a fresh cold shot. Forecasts show minimum temperatures dipping into the single digits and 20s, which drives very high short-term demand and supports cash indices in those regions. The market remembers the late-January spike when Chicago Citygate briefly traded above $60 per MMBtu during a severe arctic blast and supply constraints, so risk premia remain embedded whenever new cold waves appear. In contrast, Western hubs and Texas points have softened as local weather has turned milder. In the Permian-linked Waha region, periodic congestion and abundant supply have produced deeply discounted and sometimes negative spot prices, pulling the national average down even as individual demand hubs tighten.

Weather Path: One More Eastern Cold Snap Before Shoulder Season

The near-term weather profile centers on a cold spell from Saturday through Tuesday across the eastern United States, with minimums in the single digits and low 20s over broad swathes of the region. That window pushes total demand into the very high band and underpins the latest rebound in the Natural Gas Futures Price. Models then tilt back toward milder patterns. If late February and March trend warm, weekly withdrawals will contract and the current 123 Bcf storage deficit to the five-year average will begin to shrink. The market already looks through to the approaching shoulder season, the period between winter heating and summer air-conditioning loads, when demand is structurally softer and price rallies typically need a clear catalyst.

Turkey’s Upstream And Offshore Push To Reduce Long-Term Gas Import Premium

Ankara is actively pursuing upstream and offshore projects to dilute long-term reliance on imported gas priced far above Henry Hub. TPAO is expanding cooperation with majors such as Shell in Bulgaria’s offshore areas and has dispatched a drillship to Somalia for its first overseas mission. Additional agreements with companies like BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil target broader exploration and development exposure. None of these ventures affect benchmark pricing this month, but successful discoveries and developments over the next few years could reduce the structural need to pay a $6+ per MMBtu premium over U.S. benchmarks, narrowing the gap between domestic Turkish prices and global reference hubs.

U.S. Corporate Strategy: Under-Monetised Gas Versus “Historic” Cash Flows In Extremes

On the corporate side, the largest U.S. gas producer has admitted that it has “not done enough” to maximise realized prices through downstream and midstream optimisation. At the same time, leadership expects “historic” cash flows from the recent winter storm, citing the advantages of an integrated model that can deliver volumes reliably during extreme conditions. That dual reality – ordinary under-monetisation in normal weather and outsized payoffs in stress episodes – influences how producers hedge and where they allocate capital. The more they invest into pipes, marketing and LNG, the tighter the linkage becomes between upstream dynamics and the Natural Gas Futures Price at Henry Hub.

Technical Picture: $2.95–$3.00 As Floor, $3.30–$3.50 As First Ceiling

Technically, March futures have now defended the $2.95–$3.00 band several times. The latest attempt to break lower stalled at $2.951 and was followed by a rapid reversal to $3.141, a clear sign that sellers are unwilling to keep pressing below $3 and that short-covering triggers quickly once that pocket holds. That action defines immediate support in the $2.90–$3.00 region. On the upside, the first meaningful resistance zone lies in the low-to-mid $3s around $3.30–$3.50. A sustained break above that area would imply a re-pricing of the balance, likely driven by persistent storage deficits, a firm LNG ramp and continued strength in export flows. Until that happens, rallies into that band should be treated as tests rather than confirmation of a new bullish trend.

Volatility Clustered Around Storage Headlines, Weather Updates And LNG Signals

Intraday swings are clustering around three trigger points: weekly storage numbers, short-range weather model updates and LNG feedgas data. A softer-than-expected storage draw such as the 144 Bcf reported for the week of 13 February tends to generate fast algorithmic selling, especially when forecasts are simultaneously nudging warmer. Conversely, any colder revision for key demand regions or clear evidence of rising feedgas into projects like Golden Pass sparks short-covering and directional buying, as seen in the move from $2.951 to $3.141. The tape remains mean-reverting inside a broad $2.90–$3.50 corridor, which fits a market where exports and storage deficits are supportive but strong production and a nearing shoulder season cap the upside.

Natural Gas Futures Price Verdict: Bias Bullish, BUY With Defined Downside Risk

Putting the numbers together, the balance tilts moderately bullish with a clear risk line. Henry Hub trades near $3.141 after defending $2.951. Storage stands at 2,070 Bcf, 59 Bcf below last year and 123 Bcf below the five-year average. Production near 108.6 Bcf/d is high, but LNG exports sit near record levels, Golden Pass is about to add up to 1 Bcf/d of new demand, pipeline exports to Mexico are nearing 8 Bcf/d, and key consuming regions still show the capacity for violent price spikes in cold events. At the same time, the market is transitioning toward shoulder season and remains sensitive to any softening in weather or exports. On that basis, the stance is BUY-biased around and below $3.10 with a preferred accumulation window in the $2.90–$3.00 band, initial upside reference in the $3.60–$3.90 region, and a risk line around $2.70. A sustained break below $2.70 would signal that storage draws have collapsed, production remains pinned near records and export flows have under-delivered, which would invalidate the current bullish floor narrative.

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