Bitcoin ETF Flows Go Two-Way as BTC-USD Holds $90K After $57B Net Inflows

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF flows: from one-way demand to a two-way market

US spot Bitcoin ETFs swing from aggressive inflows to sharp redemptions

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs entered 2026 with a surge of demand before flipping into their first serious bout of outflows. On the first two trading sessions of the year, the complex attracted roughly 471 million dollars and then about 697 million dollars of net inflows, adding around 1.17 billion dollars of fresh capital on top of an already massive base of accumulated assets. Cumulatively, spot Bitcoin ETFs now sit on more than 57 billion dollars of net inflows and hold over 117 billion dollars worth of BTC-USD, equivalent to roughly seven percent of total circulating supply. That is the structural backdrop: a large share of the liquid Bitcoin float is now locked inside regulated products. The tone changed quickly as profit-taking and risk reduction started to dominate. On January sixth, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 243 million dollars of net redemptions. The pressure intensified on January seventh, when net outflows deepened to roughly 486 million dollars. In two days, roughly 730 million dollars exited the wrapper. Those numbers matter tactically, because they show flows are no longer a one-way street. Structurally, they remain small relative to the fifty seven billion dollars of cumulative intake. The conclusion is clear. ETF flows have shifted from a pure accelerator of upside in BTC-USD to a genuine two-way driver, but the longer-term balance of demand versus supply is still strongly net positive.

IBIT versus FBTC: internal rotation reshapes the Bitcoin ETF league table

Inside the ETF universe, the divergence between BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, ticker IBIT, and Fidelity’s FBTC is now central to understanding flows. Over the final session of December and the first week of January, IBIT saw a short period of modest redemptions followed by very strong net buying. Its pattern shows roughly ninety nine million dollars of outflows on December thirty first, then inflows of about 287 million dollars on January second and 372 million dollars on January fifth. Even on the sixth, when the complex turned red, IBIT still attracted about 229 million dollars, before finally losing around 130 million dollars on the seventh. Across those days, IBIT’s net position remains clearly positive, with roughly six hundred and sixty million dollars in net new capital. FBTC shows the mirror image. After small outflows around year end, it picked up about 88 million dollars on January second and roughly 191 million dollars on January fifth. Then the pattern reversed sharply. On January sixth, FBTC lost about 312 million dollars, followed by another 248 million dollars leaving on January seventh. Taken together, those moves leave FBTC in clear net outflow over the same window, around three hundred and fifty million dollars in redemptions. This split tells you that investors are not abandoning the Bitcoin ETF wrapper as a whole. They are reallocating inside the universe toward IBIT as the primary liquidity hub. It also means that when you see headline outflows, you must distinguish between gross exits from the asset class and internal reshuffling between funds. At this stage, the data shows IBIT consolidating leadership, while FBTC carries most of the selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) price action: triple rejection at 94K meets ETF selling

Bitcoin’s price behaviour lines up tightly with the ETF flow regime. BTC-USD has been rejected three times in roughly five weeks around the 94,000 to 94,500 dollar band. Each attempt into that zone triggered selling, profit-taking, and a reset of leveraged positioning. The latest rejection pushed Bitcoin down toward the 91,500 to 92,000 dollar area during the Asia and early European sessions, exactly as ETF flows shifted from heavy inflows to net outflows. Derivatives amplified the move. Over a twenty four hour window, crypto futures liquidations reached roughly 465 million dollars, with a clear skew toward long positions. That tells you traders were crowded on the upside, and the failed breakout at resistance forced a mechanical flush of leverage. Despite this, the broader structure remains constructive as long as key support holds. On the downside, the 92,000 dollar area is the first short term pivot. Below that, the 88,000 to 90,000 dollar band is a critical cluster of support where many analysts draw the line between simple consolidation and genuine trend damage. On the upside, a clean daily close above 93,000 dollars would be the first sign that buyers are willing to challenge the 94,000 to 94,500 dollar ceiling again. If that zone gives way, technical projections put the next levels near 98,000 dollars, then around 102,000 dollars, with the psychological 100,000 figure acting as a magnet and a sentiment milestone. In this framework, the recent ETF outflows are not yet a trend reversal signal. They are part of the same dynamic that produced three failed pushes at ninety four thousand, where leveraged long positioning collides with overhead supply and triggers short term deleveraging in BTC-USD.

Whale accumulation and on-chain supply: strategic buying into the ETF wobble

Alongside the ETF data and derivatives, whale behaviour offers another piece of the puzzle. Recent on chain tracking shows three wallets that together acquired roughly three thousand BTC over a short window, equivalent to about 280 million dollars at current BTC-USD prices. Evidence suggests those addresses likely belong to a single large holder splitting size across multiple wallets. The timing matters. These accumulations occurred during or shortly after the latest pullback from the ninety four thousand region and into the low ninety thousand area. In other words, large money is not the one unloading into weakness. Whales are absorbing supply into the dip, while redemptions and liquidations come mainly from shorter term leveraged players and from ETF investors taking profits after a strong quarter. This pattern fits with the broader on chain picture. Exchange balances for BTC-USD remain near multi year lows, as coins continue to migrate into cold storage, custody solutions, and ETF vaults. That set up keeps the liquid tradable float tight. In such an environment, even modest new structural demand can have an outsized price impact once the immediate deleveraging phase runs its course.

Ethereum ETFs: same pattern as Bitcoin, smaller scale and first red day of 2026

Ethereum products echo the Bitcoin pattern, but with lower dollar size. During the first three trading days of 2026, Ethereum ETFs attracted around 457 million dollars in net inflows. That sequence included roughly 174 million dollars on the opening Friday, about 168 million dollars on the following Monday, and around 115 million dollars on Tuesday. On January seventh, the direction flipped, with combined net outflows of roughly 98 million dollars. Grayscale’s ETHE was the main source of redemptions, posting about 52 million dollars of outflows, while other issuers saw either small inflows or smaller redemptions. The implication is similar to Bitcoin. Ether ETFs have moved beyond their launch flush and are now a two way institutional vehicle. Capital is still coming in on balance, but there are now days when investors de risk across the whole complex when macro or valuation signals trigger caution. For ETH-USD, this creates an environment where ETF flows will increasingly act as an amplifier of moves rather than as a simple linear source of demand.

Solana ETFs and SOL-USD: steady inflows, outperformance and the Morgan Stanley signal

Solana sits in a different position in the ETF landscape and shows a cleaner, more supportive flow pattern. Spot Solana ETFs have accumulated about 803 million dollars in net inflows since launch and now hold roughly 1.08 billion dollars in assets. That represents about 1.4 percent of Solana’s total market capitalization, a meaningful share given how recent these products are. In early January, Solana ETFs continued to attract modest but consistent net inflows, even on days when Bitcoin and Ethereum funds printed redemptions. This suggests a relatively stickier positioning in SOL-linked products and a less crowded speculative base, at least for now. Price action confirms relative strength. SOL-USD has rallied from lows near 124 dollars to recent highs around 143 dollars, then faded back toward the 135 to 137 dollar area. Even after the pullback, Solana is up around nine percent year to date, clearly outperforming BTC-USD and ETH-USD in the same window. The structural story strengthened further when Morgan Stanley filed with the United States securities regulator to launch a Solana ETF alongside new Bitcoin and Ethereum products. This filing pushes Solana into the institutional mainstream. It signals that one of the largest banks in the United States is willing to attach its brand and distribution machine to SOL-USD as part of a multi asset crypto ETF shelf. Over the medium term, this type of product pipeline matters as much as current flows. It creates a credible path for additional billions in potential demand once advisors and platforms fully open the gates.

XRP ETFs and XRP-USD: a template for the first serious outflow after a perfect streak

XRP provides a case study of what happens when an ETF driven rally meets its first real test. Spot XRP ETFs enjoyed one of the cleanest runs of any crypto product in late 2025. By the end of December, they had posted twenty nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, even as many Bitcoin and Ether products were seeing year end redemptions tied to portfolio rebalancing and tax optimization. Cumulative net inflows into XRP ETFs reached about 1.25 billion dollars from mid November to late December. In early January, that streak finally broke. On January seventh, the five United States listed XRP ETFs recorded combined net outflows of around 40.8 million dollars. The selling was concentrated in a single fund, which lost about 47 million dollars. Three other issuers, including Canary, Bitwise, and Grayscale, still saw small positive inflows of around 2 million dollars each, partially offsetting the hit. The pattern mirrors what Bitcoin ETFs are now showing. After a long stretch of one way demand, there comes a day when short term investors take profits, sentiment cools, and flows flip negative. Importantly, XRP’s long term holders remained largely inactive during this phase. On chain metrics show low balances on exchanges and no aggressive distribution from older addresses. That tells you the outflows were tactical and product specific, not a wholesale rejection of XRP-USD as an asset. For Bitcoin and BTC-USD, XRP is the reference: it shows how a strong institutional narrative and sticky base can coexist with periodic, sharp ETF outflow days without destroying the longer term thesis.

Dogecoin ETFs: small size, but a useful sentiment barometer

Dogecoin ETF flows are tiny in absolute terms, but they help calibrate the risk regime. At the start of 2026, Dogecoin products saw inflows of around 2.3 million dollars and 1.6 million dollars over the first two sessions. When Bitcoin and Ether ETFs flipped to net outflows midweek, Dogecoin products basically flatlined, with no significant net redemptions and no continuing inflow either. That behaviour says that speculative positioning in DOGE-linked products is relatively calm. Investors who wanted exposure already entered during the prior run up, and the subsequent pullback in the majors did not trigger panic selling in the meme corner. This supports the view that the current phase is a controlled de-risking by institutional and semi professional capital in BTC-USD and ETH-USD via ETF channels, not a full blown flight from crypto risk across the board.

Macro backdrop and risk regime: why ETF flows cooled exactly here

The timing of the ETF outflows aligns with a broader softening in risk appetite. Global crypto market capitalization slipped by around one to just over one percent, hovering near 3.17 trillion dollars as traders took profits after a strong start to the year. United States equity futures pulled back, signalling a mild risk off tone across asset classes. That macro pause hit just as BTC-USD attempted yet another break above the ninety four thousand to ninety four thousand five hundred dollar band. The failed move gave systematic strategies and discretionary funds a clean technical excuse to trim risk. At the same time, leverage across crypto derivatives was elevated. The result was a chain reaction where ETF investors took some profits, leveraged longs were forced out, and spot prices retraced back toward the low ninety thousand zone. There are also micro supply factors in the background, including reported miner selling to fund operations and some supply tied to legal resolutions. None of these are dominant by themselves, but they add marginal headwinds at exactly the moment ETF demand paused. The net effect is a reset rather than a collapse. BTC-USD remains well above the eighty eight thousand to ninety thousand support cluster, and the broader trend structure still points upward. The current phase is best described as a consolidation and risk reset at the top of the recent range, not a structural breakdown.

Adoption curve for Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs: early stage, not mature saturation

Despite the headline numbers, crypto ETFs are still in the early innings of institutional adoption. Many financial advisors only received platform approval to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for client accounts during 2025. In large bank and wirehouse systems, getting a product to the point where a typical advisor can use it with clients involves multiple slow steps. Compliance reviews, due diligence, portfolio construction models, and internal education all take time. That lag is why the flow profile is likely to be extended across years, not months. Evidence from 2025 supports that view. Some leading Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT, experienced heavy price volatility and ended the year with flat or even negative price performance, yet they still captured strong net inflows. Investors using ETF wrappers behaved more like strategic allocators than like short term traders. They sized positions as small portfolio slices and held them through drawdowns instead of pacing in and out with every move in BTC-USD. This matters for the current outflow episode. The same processes that slowed the arrival of capital into ETFs will also slow the pace at which it leaves. Occasional redemptions of a few hundred million dollars sit inside a much larger structural wave of adoption that is still ramping.

Morgan Stanley, advisor allocations and the math behind structural Bitcoin demand

Morgan Stanley’s recent decisions highlight the scale of potential institutional demand for BTC-USD via ETFs. The bank manages around 1.8 trillion dollars in assets. Its move to allow financial advisors to allocate between one and four percent of portfolios to crypto products, with a heavy emphasis on Bitcoin, is crucial. Even if only a fraction of advisors decide to use the full band, the sums involved are large. A blended one percent allocation across that asset base would imply around 18 billion dollars in potential crypto exposure, much of it likely to be channelled into spot Bitcoin ETFs such as IBIT. If average allocations drift higher over time toward the two to four percent range for appropriate clients, the eventual capacity could be multiples of that. Importantly, those flows will not hit in one quarter. They will phase in as advisors get comfortable, as models are updated, and as clients approve changes during periodic reviews. That gradual build reinforces the idea that ETF based demand for BTC-USD will be a recurring multi year force. At the same time, ETF platforms from other banks and wealth managers are following similar trajectories. As regulatory clarity improves and competitive pressure increases, more institutions will roll out their own crypto enabled platforms. Each such decision widens the pool of eligible capital that can be directed into Bitcoin ETFs when macro conditions are favourable.

Bull, base and bear readings of current Bitcoin ETF flow data

There are three coherent ways to interpret the current ETF flow pattern for BTC-USD. The bullish reading emphasises that cumulative flows are still deeply positive, that IBIT remains a net buyer even through volatility, that exchange supply is tight, and that whales are accumulating thousands of BTC into dips. In this view, the recent seven hundred plus million dollars of outflows are a healthy reset clearing leverage and weak hands before the next leg higher. Consolidation between eighty eight thousand and ninety four thousand becomes a base for an eventual push through one hundred thousand and toward the one hundred forty to one hundred seventy thousand zone that many banks project for late 2026. The base case treats the boldest targets, such as the two hundred fifty thousand calls, as tail scenarios. Under this interpretation, ETF inflows continue but at a moderated pace, with intermittent outflow days linked to macro risk off events and to technical rejections at resistance. Advisor adoption remains gradual. BTC-USD grinds higher over 2026, with realistic targets around one hundred twenty to one hundred fifty thousand by year end, in line with the cluster of bank forecasts between roughly one hundred forty three and one hundred seventy thousand dollars. The bear reading focuses on the risk that early ETF inflows were front loaded. If macro conditions worsen, if BTC-USD loses the eighty eight thousand to ninety thousand floor, and if IBIT shifts from net buyer to persistent net seller, those fifty seven billion dollars of cumulative inflows become a latent source of supply rather than a cushion. Under that scenario, ETF flows could accelerate downside in BTC-USD the same way they amplified upside on the way up. At this point, the data does not support the bearish interpretation as the default. But the flow structure makes clear that ETF channels will intensify whichever direction dominates.

Investment stance on Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with today’s ETF and flow structure

After integrating ETF flows, on chain trends, derivatives positioning, macro tone, and the adoption curve, the conclusion for BTC-USD is straightforward. Net ETF exposure is still growing over time. The recent red days are meaningful, but small relative to cumulative intake. BlackRock’s IBIT remains a net accumulator and has emerged as the core liquidity hub for institutional demand. Advisor platforms and banks are still opening access rather than shutting it down, and whales are using volatility to add rather than to exit. Price action shows rejection at ninety four thousand, but also strong support above the eighty eight thousand to ninety thousand band. In that context, BTC-USD remains a buy for investors who accept that ten to twenty percent drawdowns inside the current range are part of the game. The flows now act as a two way amplifier. They will accelerate both rallies and corrections. As long as Bitcoin holds the key support region and ETF redemptions remain episodic rather than chronic, the structural forces behind Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to favour the bullish side of the ledger.

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