Bitcoin ETF Inflows Fall to $769M as BTC-USD Stabilizes Near $109K

Institutional Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF Inflows Shift Amid Policy Uncertainty, Macro Shocks, and Profit-Taking

ETF Inflows Hit $769.6M as Volatility Rises, Down From $2.22B

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw inflows of $769.6 million in the first week of July, plunging 65% from the previous week’s $2.22 billion. While Thursday delivered a stunning $601.94 million—the highest daily inflow since May—the rest of the week painted a fragmented demand picture. Monday saw $102.14 million of inflows before Tuesday’s sharp reversal with $342.25 million in outflows. Wednesday rebounded with $407.78 million in fresh capital before the July 4 holiday halted trading on Friday.

IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB Dominate Weekly ETF Inflows

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $336.8 million, Fidelity’s FBTC followed at $248.4 million, and ARKB from ARK 21Shares secured $160 million. Other contributors—BITB, BTCO, EZBC, HODL, and BRRR—added $109.2 million. Grayscale’s legacy fund GBTC, meanwhile, bled $84.9 million, continuing its slow bleed amid competition from lower-fee rivals.

Trump Budget Bill and Fed Jobs Data Fuel Sentiment Volatility

ETF flows mirrored investor confusion after the Senate passed Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill on July 1, which excluded previously proposed crypto tax reforms. Expectations of staking and mining tax relief evaporated, disappointing institutional allocators seeking clarity. Compounding this, the U.S. June jobs report stunned with 147,000 new payrolls, beating the 110,000 forecast. This shredded July rate cut hopes and sparked outflows from high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

BTC-USD Slips to $105K Then Recovers to $109K

BTC-USD dropped as low as $105,000 on July 2 following the fiscal policy disappointment. However, a rebound ensued after Trump unveiled a new ASEAN trade pact, which helped restore some investor confidence. BTC now trades around $109,000, just 2.5% off its all-time high of $111,960.

Record-High AUM and Volumes Show Long-Term Confidence

Despite recent selling pressure, cumulative Bitcoin ETF net inflows have reached $14.5 billion year-to-date. Total ETF AUM has now crossed $128 billion, with IBIT alone controlling $73.6 billion. Daily trading volumes hit $5.3 billion on July 3, the highest since May, emphasizing sustained institutional demand.

Institutional Demand Drives ETF Accumulation and Whale Control

Bitcoin ETFs are nearing $50 billion in cumulative inflows, with more than $1 billion flowing in over just two days last week. At the same time, public companies acquired 65,000 BTC in June (worth ~$7B), confirming corporate treasury adoption. Glassnode data shows a rising share of high-value whale transactions versus retail on-chain activity, underscoring a structural shift in market power.

Profit-Taking and Long-Term Holders Weigh on BTC Price Action

Realized profits have surged to $650 billion this cycle, eclipsing the $550 billion peak from the previous cycle. Long-term holders—especially early entrants from before ETF approval—have been distributing since January 2024. Their sales are capping BTC upside even as new institutional inflows pour in. Monthly network transactions also dropped 15% in June, reducing on-chain velocity.

Robert Kiyosaki Contrarian Signal at $109K Resistance

With Bitcoin facing resistance at $109,500, public commentary from Robert Kiyosaki provided a contrarian boost. Dismissing crash warnings as scare tactics, Kiyosaki doubled down on his $1 million BTC by 2030 forecast. Though he remains bullish long term, he favors silver in the near term, targeting $105 by year-end.

BTC-USD Volatility Falls Despite Macro Shocks

BTC’s implied volatility—across 7-day to 6-month windows—has declined to levels last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was trading below $40,000. This collapse in expected price swings suggests market maturity and a growing presence of options hedging. The suppressed volatility also indicates that current price moves are more news-driven than structurally volatile.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Gains ETF Momentum, Outpaces BTC Inflows

Ethereum ETFs saw $226M in inflows last week, marking 11 straight weeks of gains and 1.6% AuM inflow velocity—twice that of Bitcoin’s 0.8%. ETH is gradually shifting institutional capital flows, even as BTC remains the dominant macro proxy. Ethereum’s $15.86B ETF AuM continues growing, thanks to Layer 2 scaling optimism and the Pectra upgrade.

Geographic Breakdown Reveals U.S. ETF Dominance

The U.S. contributed $1.02 billion of $1.04 billion in global crypto ETF inflows last week, dwarfing Germany ($38.5M) and Switzerland ($33.7M). Canadian and Brazilian funds saw net outflows of $29.3 million and $9.7 million respectively, suggesting geographic divergence in risk appetite.

Future of ETF Growth: Altcoin Approvals and Index Products

Analysts from Bloomberg raised the odds of Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETF approvals to 95%. Index ETF approvals tracking baskets of crypto assets could be imminent, opening the door for retail and institutional flows beyond BTC and ETH. More than 70 crypto ETFs are awaiting SEC review.

BTC-USD Verdict: Hold Short-Term, Bullish Long-Term

With BTC-USD hovering near $109,000 amid reduced retail activity and record ETF demand, the market enters a low-volatility consolidation phase. The absence of rate cut momentum and long-term holder selling are capping upside, but rising ETF flows, treasury adoption, and AUM gains make BTC-USD a Buy on any pullback, especially below $100,000.

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